Latest Poll
April 25th, 2004 at 6:12 pm by David FarrarHelen Clark will not be happy with the latest poll results. Not only is the gap Labour has behind National increased to 11%, but she is now only 1% ahead of Don Brash as preferred PM. Historically PMs tend to be at least double the Leader of the Opposition.
The One News poll results are
National 48% (-1% from last poll)
Labour 37% (-2%)
ACT 2% (+0%)
NZF 5% (+1%)
UNF 2% (+0%)
Green 5% (+3%)
Using the St Lague formula, this would give an election result (change from 2002 election in brackets) of:
National 60 (+23)
Labour 46 (-6)
ACT 0 (-9)
NZF 6 (-7)
UNF 2 (-6)
Green 6 (-3)
PCP 1 (-1)
Preferred PM has
Brash 31%
Clark 32%
Peters 7%
April 25th, 2004 at 6:20 pm
And for this first time since Jenny Shipley was PM the question was about Helen Clark’s leadership – admittedly a media beat up, but its nice the beat up being on the other foot!
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 1:06 pm
Your St Lague results would still give Clark the PM-ship, wouldn’t they? (Labour 46 + NZF 6 + UNF 2 + Green 6 + PCP 1 = 61). Although I doubt very much that they’d all be able to sit around the Cabinet table. The sight of Winston sitting next to Jeanette would almost be worth it!
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 1:13 pm
Heh the thought of a five way coalition is enough to make the black humour in me want to see Helen try it.
If National is the largest party I think it is highly likely United Future would vote for a National Government, and possible NZ First also.
Incidentially if ACT won an electorate seat, then National would have 59 seats and ACT two seats and that would make 61.
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 4:58 pm
I just can’t see Winston overcoming his loathing for National sufficiently to join a Brash-led coalition. Witness his recent actions in Parliament where he managed to deflect the blowtorch from Labour several times onto National, just for revenge really. And historically he’s always been more attuned to standing outside the tent peeing in, than standing inside the tent (peeing out or otherwise). But if he was assured of getting opportunities to grandstand he might go for it…
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 5:49 pm
I don’t think we’ll have the concrete result we’ll all expect on election day. Rather, like Colmar-Brunton’s earlier poll, the two major parties will be tightly packed, forcing a 1996 repeat. Comforting isn’t it? Winston as Kingmaker. Like Gryfon I don’t think Winston will choose National, and I can’t see Labour working with Winston.
Would that force another by-election? Would it be called a by-election? Thoughts, feelings, emotions…..
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 5:58 pm
I agree it is more likely that Peters would go with Labour, but it is not clear cut. He loathed Bolger with an absolute passion yet did a deal with him in 1996.
Peters will decide based on what is good for Peters and nothing else. The only certainity is that if he does hold the balance of power, he will withdraw support before the term is up. He has never ever gone into an election since he was re-elected an MP in 1984 supporting the Government of the day.
Vote:April 26th, 2004 at 9:10 pm
why dont we just make ahmed zaoui prime minister
Vote:that way helen clark and jeneatte wont be around
to fight another day.And I know keith locke
and alex davidson would support me on that.
April 27th, 2004 at 3:20 pm
Peters will do what he likes, or what he feels like at the time. There’s a lot of water under the bridge but nobody in the Labour Party can have been happy with the latest poll. I suspect we’re being punished for public disunity, and the foreshore thing is still rolling on.
The PM needs to sort out the caucus, make sure people understand why unity is important, and then slog through to the Budget and beyond. I am pretty sure at this point that things will be fairly evenly matched by the time the next election arrives.
Vote:April 27th, 2004 at 3:31 pm
Disunity is indeed always a killer in the polls. It is the one constant since 1981 – voters punish disunity.
I agree with Jordan that things will be close up until the election.
2005 may be the first election since 1981 when the outcome isn’t clearly known (1996 the outcome was clear, just not what Winston would do afterwards).
Vote:May 6th, 2004 at 10:19 am
does anyone know Helen Clark’s email address,
Vote:if you can send this url on to her
http://members.cox.net/classicweb/Heroes/heroes.htm