The official ACT leadership book
April 27th, 2004 at 7:51 pm by David FarrarEven though I am sure it breaks some minor gambling rule, I am offering odds on all ten contenders for the leadership of ACT.
Maximum bet accepted is $5, and bets will preferably be paid out in beer.
Odds will be revised from time to time, as the situation changes. Note definition of odds of (for example) 2:1 mean you get $2 if you are right, and pay me $1 if you are wrong.
The initial odds in alphabetical order, plus comments are below:
Awatere-Huata, Donna. 1000-1
Coddington, Deborah. 12-1
Eckhoff, Gerry. 25-1
Franks, Stephen. 3-1
Hide, Rodney. 3-2
Newman, Muriel. 6-1
Prebble, Richard. 10-1
Roy, Heather. 15-1
Shirley, Ken. 2-1
Wong, Kenneth, 100-1
Major positives and negatives for each candidate:
Awatere-Huata – positive is very high name awarensss – negatives are she has been expelled from Caucus and is facing fraud charges.
Coddington – positives are her research and writing skills plus being a good looking woman in a party that usually gets few votes from women – negatives are her inexperience and her husband.
Eckhoff – positives are his likeability and tenacity – negatives are no appeal to urban voters, little visibility and lack of charisma.
Franks – positives are his legal skills and knowledge, his visibility on law & order and acceptability to the hierarchy – negatives are lack of charisma, limited profile and unkown leadership ability.
Hide – positives are his huge public profile, being Auckland based (where most ACT voters are), being seen to have a chance at winning a seat, and his ability to run a scandal for weeks on end – negatives are his (un)popularity with colleagues and hierarchy, being seen to be more interested in scandals than policy, his lack of caution and questions about whether he is better as a one man commando than as a General.
Newman – positives are relatively high profile on welfare issues (but less since Katherine Rich moved into that portfolio for National) and eights years parliamentary experience – negatives are not being seen as leadership potential by colleagues and not always being well briefed on the facts.
Prebble – positives are having been an MP since 1972 and Leader since 1996, negative is that he has just resigned as Leader.
Roy – positives are she has done nothing wrong so far, gaining credibility in health and looks ten years younger than she is – negatives are only 18 months in Parliament, inexperience and still gaining in confidence in the House.
Shirley – positives are very good spells as Acting Leader, a capable whip, experienced former Minister and did quite well in his electorate seat – negatives are almost no national profile, lack of charisma and not a good TV performer always.
Wong – positives are no bad press and chance to be be seen as new broom – negatives are he won’t be an MP until Awatere-Huata is convicted or stops her appeals against ACT’s use of the Electoral Integrity Act.
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April 27th, 2004 at 9:42 pm
I think you odds are bang on.
My question is, shouldn’t you name a venue and place where you will pay out – presumeably where they serve beer?
Vote:April 27th, 2004 at 10:22 pm
In Wellington it wil be the Backbencher of course. Other cities will depend on when I am visiting there.
Of course I may not pay out at all, but make a lot of money if they elect someone that no-one bets on.
Vote:April 27th, 2004 at 11:00 pm
Yeah alright I’ll take $10 on Franks. Next time I’m in Wellington we’ll discuss this whole political marketplace betting properly. I’ve been thinking about starting a futures market to track sentiment about the next election.
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 8:08 am
As an employee of the TAB I will be suggesting that the bookies add this to their extensive range of sports betting.
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 8:36 am
$10 on Rodney Hide.
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 8:51 am
Husbands are always a negative when it comes to good looking women! $5 on Shirley (you can take it out of the money you owe me). Oh, and before Millsy points it out – DPF never pays!
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 9:32 am
How can you offer shorter odds on Prebble than Coddington? A leader who resigns is not going to come back (unless your name’s Jim).
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 11:20 am
Well someone may start a bring back Prebs campaign in the best tradition of bring back Buck.
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 2:56 pm
Just quickly now…
1) All of the bets in comments section breach the rules of the game ($5 limit)
2) The game almost certainly does breach mulitiple gaming rules (even assuming DPF plans to pay out and not move to, say, Germany with the money)
3) The Prebble bet is not that strange. Part of Prebs may be hoping that the party can not agree on his successor and demands he stay.
4) If you do win and DPF does pay, try the Sassy Red at the Back Bencher!
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 2:57 pm
Hahahahahaha – I’ve only just noticed that Tamihere’s blog is in the centre blogs column of links!
Priceless.
Vote:April 28th, 2004 at 8:18 pm
with a nod to gordon I will take $5 on franks. hide will continue to play the same scandal busting game but is too disliked by senior party to make it.
Vote:payout will have to wait till you are visiting london. it is difficult to believe that shirley will get elected. he would successfully destroy all remaining support for ACT and ensure their electoral demise.
April 28th, 2004 at 10:07 pm
$5 on Hide.
As a non-ACT voter, asside from Prebble and Donna, he’s one of the few ACT people I can honestly name. To my mind, that’s gotta count for something.
Vote:April 30th, 2004 at 8:35 am
Dearest DPF, true to form you’ve only commented on the looks of the female contenders… why is that?
$10 on Rodney, who can say “no” to that gorgeous grin and twinkle in his eye that he’s about to end someone else’s career. Plus, he’s a true liberal, unlike some of the other contenders. He’s also smarter than most of the others, and can actually laugh at himself!
Vote:April 30th, 2004 at 4:04 pm
Well dearest Megs, even someone like you who can enjoy the view on both sides of the street would have to concede that Heather and Deborah are quite hot, while Richard, Rodney, Gerry, Stephen and Ken are most definitely not at all hot.
And I did not comment on Muriel, but will comment her daughter is definitely hot.
As for Donna, I think I would be too scared too comment.
Vote:April 30th, 2004 at 4:05 pm
What about a “Save Prebs” campaign based on the famous “Save Rail”…
I’ll take $5 (I stick to the rules) on Rodders but not for the same reasons Scully picked him!
Vote:May 3rd, 2004 at 11:53 am
Put me down for $5 on Rodney. I’m surprised that anyone would be willing to put money on anyone else given that he tops members’ polls consistently! So as long as Franks won’t be counting the members’ ballots he’s got to be the closest thing to a sure thing going.
Vote:May 3rd, 2004 at 4:10 pm
Rodney now has his own blog at http://rodneyhide.com/Diary/ — quite possibly the first blog of a leadership bid ever. Certainly a first for New Zealand!
Vote: