Polls close
May 28th, 2005 at 8:05 am by David FarrarThe NZ Herald has a poll out today which shows a 5% movement in the gap between National and Labour – going from 12% to 5%.
Rather annoyingly the online edition doesn’t have the full poll details, so can’t predict seats but looks like both ACT and Green under 5%.
Also the NZ Herald seems determined to promote nonsense by asking people if they would like Peters to lead a coalition with National. This is a blatant case of trying to create rather than report news, as it is obvious such a scenario will never happen.
Another poll out tomorrow in the SST.
No tag for this post.
May 28th, 2005 at 9:06 am
The polls should tighten up further possibly Act will increase further. The big issue is whether Labour which has shown such skill at executing U turns will do the same on tax. They have put up many eloquant arguments against it. I do not think National should announce its figures too soon, just say they will be meaningful but will not risk any reductions in the present service standards of core Government services. Indeed the tax cuts will be sufficiently meaningful to give people the choice to improve their access to essential services beyond what they can at the moment. People will be able to get access to private education if they think the local school is failing their child, ease the burden of student loan servicing, buy health insurance to improve the speed of access to health services, better pay for housing, and save to provide better security in old age. The argument being the State cannot do it all, the Labour Government which has thrown money at these core monopoly services have proved that point. People must be allowed to have choices and get better access to essential services. When the State monopoly system fails they should not just be told by the Labour Government to suck a kumera and blame the National Party.
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 9:30 am
Yes, the herald is very naughty. No doubt the Gnats will be happy to offer Winston the PM job when he wins more seats that they do.
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 10:13 am
Adolf – not even then!!
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 12:21 pm
From The online Digital Replica:
Labour 43.1
Vote:National 36.2
NZ First 8.2
Greens 3.3
Maori 2.7
ACT 2.5
United Future 1.8
May 28th, 2005 at 12:30 pm
re dpf..methinks he doth protest to much…peters is from national..and went with national last time..it’s his home..why wouldn’t it happen again..?
if you guys/gals have power dangled under your nose, with peters as pm as the price..you’ll take it..(or your compatriots will dpf..)
of course you will say now never, never..but we all know post-election is a whole new ball game, eh?
and power is all , eh?..that spell on the back benchs has brought that one home to the gnats..
want to make any hat eating pledges dpf..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 1:11 pm
The digital replica graphic muses about overhangs re Progressives, but more likely scenario is that Tariana Turia will win her seat but the Maori Party won’t get over the threshhold… 120 MPs will most definitely be the minimum!
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 1:21 pm
Phil U –
With all due respect, I think DPF and myself have a more intimate sense of the mood at the grassroots of the National Party that your good self.
Getting back into bed with Winston is like rooting the most beautiful man (or woman, if you swing that way) – but you’re going to catch a terminal STD that will kill inside a year. I like sex, but not at any price.
And I’d respectfully suggest, that getting into a gang bang with Peters, his ego, his skanky populism and his flaky whims is a porno scenario mainstream Nats don’t want a bar of.
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 2:22 pm
Whats new with Winston since last time he is in Coalition with National- i hear the same messages as before, immigration, foriegn ownership, superannuation.
Craig says ….his skanky populism and his flaky whims is a porno scenario mainstream Nats don’t want a bar of.
… he forgot to say ..want a bar of AGAIN.
There is no way senior figures in National will want 3 more years in opposition, After all the last big poll surge for national came after Don found Winstons speech notes on Orewa Beach. So the voters dont mind Winnie, and they are the ones who really count not faded activists
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 4:20 pm
The simple truth is that if the voters choose National as the largest party, and NZ First as the likely coalition partner then the two parties have an ethical duty to form a government. My Preference is that a centre-right government would have National and ACT in it, but the polls are not currently suggesting this. The centre-right, as the centre-left had to hold its nose and take on board the dippy christians in United, must deal in political realities.
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 4:22 pm
Escheator –
*ahem* The overwhelming majority of voters have a big enough problem with Winnie they don’t vote for his party.
And you obviously don’t have much involvement with any RW political party, because the Herald’s polling sample don’t put their shoe leather and their chequebooks where their mouths are. Activists and donors do.
Despite the Herald’s rather meaningless, and over-spun, poll question
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 4:36 pm
If the Nats are now so full of moral righteousness that they won’t have a bar of Peters (remember they had no scruples when he was one of their own and again in 1996) why doesn’t their so-called “leader” just come out and say he won’t be doing any deals with NZ First after polling day? I reckon such a principled stand might actually get the Nats a few votes, especially if Labour didn’t swiftly follow up with a similar pledge. After all, what’s more liberal than defending human rights? Immigrants have them too, they don’t just belong to the rich and the middle classes.
Vote:May 28th, 2005 at 5:08 pm
Michael -
I agree with you. But I notice Labour’s “so-called leader” has also been extradordinarily evasive on the subject of cuddling up to Winnie.
Putting partisanship aside, I think it would be incredibly powerful if Brash AND Clark had the guts to stand at the same podium and say, “Stick a fork in it, Winnie, you’re done.”
Vote:May 29th, 2005 at 1:23 am
The true test will come eventually — after some election we will probably end up needing at least two of Nat, Lab, and NZF to form a govt.
Vote:On a lot of issues National and Labour have similar policies, and yet both would prefer to go into coalition with NZF before considering a coalition with one another, because they know what happens to two big centre parties that go into coalition — they get perceived as a single party quite quickly, as happened in the 30s.
If Winston gets the balance of power, govt goes to the highest bidder.