Election Date

June 4th, 2005 at 1:20 pm by David Farrar

The NZ Herald talks about Labour’s fears over the the bad budget reaction (an own goal of unprecedented ability), and that this makes 30 July election more unlikely.

I agree.

They pick the next date as 20 August, mentioning the four week recess in late June and July would keep parliamentary scrutiny to a minimum. They are right, but overlook that it would be unprecedented for the PM to call a non-snap election without Parliament having the right to have an adjournment debate and valedictory speeches for retiring MPs. So she would have to call it by say Tuesday 21 June to allow time for this. Also with Nats conference that weekend, it would be great timing for National to start the campaign with the profile of its annual conference.

I don’t see a eight week campaign being likely. In theory the PM could recall Parliament in July, but this is normally only done for things like the Iraq war, and it would undermine the image of not going early.

So I am now going to pick September 17 as most likely.

At the end of the day, the PM will call an election the moment Labour have some upwards momentum, which is probably a clear couple of weeks of no scandals, and at least three positive poll results. So it still could be July 30 if the next two weeks go well, but unlikely.

No tag for this post.

14 Responses to “Election Date”

  1. Gooner () says:

    Even if it’s unprecedented it wouldn’t stop Clark. She will do anything to deny Richard Prebble a valedictory.

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  2. Bob Howard () says:

    My feeling is she will leave it as long as possible to get past present problems and have time to improve her party’s image.

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  3. sagenz () says:

    darth I agree on September 17 as the date and have blogged as such. There is no way helen is going to the name the date as August 20 in mid July when she may face the court on August 1. That makes us agree with Jordan who is also still backing a September election.

    The thing National will have to watch out for is the attempt by Labour to pull Winston close. If Labour fail to do that they will lose this election.

    National have seized and must hold the momentum. Spending June tipping scorn on Labour through billboards and scandals, July discussing National’s inspiring tax policies, August taking the piss out of helen trying to lie to a court of law would lead nicely into a few weeks in september accentuating all the positives of a stable National/NZF coalition with ACT to keep Winston honest.

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  4. Cathy () says:

    Election date?

    2 words – Ask Shane…

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  5. phil u. () says:

    sagenz..”..accentuating all the positives of a stable National/NZF coalition with ACT to keep Winston honest…”

    good one sagenz..that’s what we want to hear..peters/brash/hide(?)..

    that’s the idea/image we want to present to the new zealand voting public…peters/brash/henare/mc cully et al.

    remind them of what came before..eh?

    that’ll scare the hell out of them..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  6. GPT () says:

    David, don’t you read Jordon’s blog? The biggest own goal was Brash saying ‘Baloney’ … LOL.

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  7. TheProphet () says:

    If there are worse things in the closet than whats popped out in the last month or so wouldn’t Labour be better to call sooner?

    Labours had a couple of good hits against them lately and the opposition’s snowball is picking up speed and confidence, perfect time for a suckerpunch early election I would have thought.

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  8. TheProphet () says:

    If there’s worse things in the closet than what we have seen in the last month or so wouldn’t Labour be better going now?

    They’ve had a couple of good hits in the last month and the oppositions snowball is picking up speed and confidence. Perfect time for a suckerpunch I would have thought.
    Happy to know why I’m wrong as per.

    Allah protect us

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  9. phil u () says:

    proph..you are wrong because labour needs this time to point out the fallacies and implications,(borrowing to fund, and flogging of state assets for same), in nationals promised tax cuts..

    and to show how the working for families package is putting much more money into the hands of all, (but the wealthy),than brashs’ cargo-cult promises of tax cuts..

    also to show how ending bracket-creep, (ugh,take something for it, why don’t you!), will mean that the backward slide many have experienced will halt..

    also to bed in the implications of the peters/brash/henare/mc cully mob getting their hands on our country again…

    so proph, for these reasons and probably a few more, you are wrong in your call of an early election..

    the latest polls put it beyond any doubt that mid-sept will be election time..

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  10. Gooner () says:

    Geez Phil. This is not good:

    ‘…you are wrong because labour needs this time to point out the fallacies and implications,(borrowing to fund, and flogging of state assets for same), in nationals promised tax cuts…’

    If it’s so damn obvious why it’s wrong, why do they need 3 months to explain it!

    ‘and to show how the working for families package is putting much more money into the hands of all, (but the wealthy),than brashs’ cargo-cult promises of tax cuts…’

    You mean ‘and to show how the WFF is creating more welfare dependency than ever before.’

    ‘also to bed in the implications of the peters/brash/henare/mc cully mob getting their hands on our country again…’

    Clark, Anderton, Fitzsimons, Donald, Turia would be better? Puke!

    You Greens are having a bad weekend Phil: personal abuse by Donald and agreeing that a fulltime Greenpeace activist would have their student loan written off. You’re on the slppery slope mate.

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  11. tim barclay () says:

    They can call it any time they damn well like. The sooner the better for them I think. If they leave it late what could turn up to help them? Brash can say that by leaving it so late the Labour Government is denying you a pre xmas tax cut. The cut could be implemented quite easily and quickly by passing some regulations that reduce the employee PAYE deductions, the legislation can wait. I think Brash has bought the IRD argument too easily on implemtnaion issues.

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  12. phil u () says:

    no no tim..haven’t you heard..those tax cuts by lunchtime have been moved back to when he is able…i was sure you would have heard that by now..

    ah, the vagaries of the cargo cult, eh?

    phil(whoar.co.nz)

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  13. tim barclay () says:

    That “by lunchtime” remark is a heresay remark from a junior foreign affairs official. I doubt that the Chief Executive of that department will be long in that job after National win the election. Any how the government would be better to go in July which is the mormal time, taking it out to September, is stretching the law. Going sooner catches the opposition off guard I would have thought, as Helen proved in 2002. What do they think is going to help them until September. More scandals? A war? A pay strike? John Tamahere? The Chin funding scandal?

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  14. TheProphet () says:

    Phil – Well … Thanks for setting me straight. I’m a bit dizzy some times. All this political stuff is to much for my little provincial head.

    Time, as always, will tell.

    Allah protect us.

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