Poll Demographics
June 29th, 2005 at 9:29 am by David FarrarThe NZ Herald has reported some demographic breakdowns in its latest poll.
Now the first think to remember is that the sample size for a demographic group is quite small – sometimes only 200 or so, and hence the margin of error can be as high as 8% or so.
But bearing that in mind, it is interesting that National leads by 13% amongst men, and trails by only 6% amongst women. Traditionally world-wide CR parties have a 10%+ gap with women voters.
On the age breakdown, it is superb to see young people voting for their future. with National having its strongest support from 18 to 24 year olds.
What is also fascinating is that for the first time in 15 years probably, National has more support than Labour amongst over 65 year olds. This is ironically due to the resurgence of NZ First.
Once again no-one should take the numbers above as gospel, but they do point to some interesting trends.
No tag for this post.
June 29th, 2005 at 9:47 am
Breaking poll results down and trying to draw conclusions is statistically very very dangerous because sample size gets very small and the possibility of error is very very high. But I think think a policy of cutting taxes will be popular with people trying to pay off a student loan, hence support from the young. I also think transport/immigration issues will play well in Auckland. I can see Labour sluming further in Auckland as the policies of the “Labour” city council start to bite further.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 10:37 am
Tim you should spend more time in Auckland, Auckland City is only one third of the Auckland region, the City coucil has a minority of “”city Vision”" councillors. The policies mean less rates rises than the previous Act/NP council for the majority of ratepayers – mine inceased 23% in 4 years because Im in a low income area. Im livid the new lot are following in the previous footsteps but Helen has nothing to do with it .
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:22 am
Autocafe, you got selective amnesia? What was it your party Pres said to the ABC on the elction night in Australia? You remember that one? When Latham swept LAbor to defeat? He boasted that for the first time in 70 odd years Labour had control of Auckland city Council. You dils got what you voted for.Howard
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:24 am
That’s slightly disingenous Ztev/ADF. City Vision might only number 6 out of twenty, but thats only because they call themselves different names for strategic purposes elsewhere across the city. In Panmure/Onehunga, they call themselves Labour, and in Hobson, they have recruited a former City Vision person to run on the Action Hobson ticket (Christine Caughey).
All in all, the left wing CV-labour-Action Hobson coalition partners equal 11, plus the Mayor and a left wing oriented independent from Waiheke.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:32 am
Local body rates in the whole Auckland region have increased at the multiple of the inflation rate over the past 2 decades Why We vote in people who promise to hold rates to inflation and then proceed to spend like drunken sailors What we need is legisaltion to control these wastrels to one or two percent above the inflation rate They will go to the limit but at least they will have to deliver better value for money Thats something that beyond any of them at present
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:38 am
The Labour Party cannot be triamphalist when the left take control of Auckland city and then run for cover when they become unpopular. I guess they can try. But the roading deadlock caused in part by the left city council will play with Auckland voters when they consider the possibility of a Labour Green coalition Government. The problem with Winston is they have no idea whether he will end up with Labour and do they think he can control Helen Clark???
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:56 am
Tim –
The caveat in your first post is entirely fair, and DPF acknowledged it. But I think it does remind both major parties that this election will not be won in their respective demographic/ideological comfort zones. IMO, both National and Labour have arrogantly, and unwisely, assumed that minority groups A, B, and C are “ours” (and therefore can be taken for granted) while groups X, Y and Z are “theirs” (and can be safely ignored).
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 12:45 pm
The Greens are a liability for Labour in Auckland. We have already seen Labour, at the behest of the Greens, delay the completion of the Avondale motorway extension. No votes in that outside of organic farms in Neslon.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 4:42 pm
David,
Vote:I would be interested to hear your analysis of the reasons for the gender split voting for Labour and National. Your regular commentators seem to shy away from commenting on this.
June 29th, 2005 at 5:01 pm
A gender split is very normal, world-wide, between CR and CL parties. Women tend to be more receptive to social issues, and men to economic issues – but that is a generalisation.
In a particular country multiple issues can come into play including the gender of the leaders. I’d rather not share my thinking about what is causing the gender split in NZ at this exact point in time, unless someone is paying me for it
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 5:29 pm
Waterman –
You tell me. I don’t expend a lot of time and effort wonder what difference having a prick or a pussy makes to your voting decisions.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 5:34 pm
Besides, history has shown that men have tended to be right on more issues, more often than women.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 5:49 pm
Craig, thanks for your comment, statistically you must vote further to the right than most.
Getting back to the analysis of gender issue, if there is a difference as you say David, surely this is an area where more analysis of policy could be focussed by parties to capture the difference.
From a totally different perspective, if you are a male and vote labour (or at least say you do) then this would mean you have a greater chance of having something in common with your female date. Something for the bachelors out there to think about!
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 6:24 pm
Yeah, good point, waterman, I can see the billboards now,
Be a girly-man, vote Labour!
or,
If you want the pussy then vote like a pussy. Vote Labour.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 7:49 pm
Waterman –
No, but most of the women I know get quite pissy when they’re told there are “women’s issues” and “men’s issues”. I just think getting fixated on a gender gap (which as far as I can tell is largely anecdotal and theoretical) doesn’t lead to very good policy, or campaigning that reaches much beyond the patronising and the trivial.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 8:18 pm
As a woman, I can tell everyone now that social issues are far more important to be than economic ones. I’m very defensive of my nest, and for that reason I want Helen and her rabble gone.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 8:45 pm
I would have thought it was clear. Don is such a stud-muffin that his sheer animal magnetism is skewing the “typical” results, because women want to vote for him.
Or, more seriously, Labour have made a dogs breakfast of education and health, and they are both issues that have a lot of traction with a lot of women.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 9:31 pm
Is this the demise of the left in NZ politics? National is making progress in the polls but is this really just pressure from the respondents to encourage the government to provide tax breaks? There is a consensus among low to middle income earners that the much vaunted “trickle down” effects of free market economics have been a long time in coming. Wages have largely remained static, especially for the semi-skilled. The way the polls currently read it would seem that NZ First is a logical coalition partner. This would imply a government campaigning largely on race relations and immigration as a subsidiary of that thought. Lets just say that social policy will probably will not be high on the agenda, but flying squads for immigration – hey yeah lets do that.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 10:57 pm
Sentence 1: “hence the margin of error can be as high as 8% or so.”
Sentence 2: “… and trails by only 6% amongst women. Traditionally world-wide CR parties have a 10%+ gap with women voters.”
Oh, so with that margin of error, the difference might be as much 14% then? A 4% difference from the world-wide average in a tiny poll with up to 8% margin of error tells us exactly nothing David, or nothing reliable at least.
That’s some pretty fuzzy spin you’re putting on those numbers.
Vote:June 29th, 2005 at 11:24 pm
BB the story about Labour losing support from women is not written by me, so please don’t accuse me of spinning it. All I have said is “it is interesting … ” which is about as mild as one can get. I really resent it when people accuse me of misrepresenting poll data, when it is my professional area. I’m the person who actually went to the trouble of pointing out the high margin of error in the NZ Herakld story, so once again you accusing me of spinning the data is again the opposite of what I have done.
Vote:June 30th, 2005 at 12:02 am
Fair call DPF. I accept that it is not your spin and apologise for suggesting that it was. I stand by the claim that, with such a high margin of error and such a small divergence from the average, it’s a completely meaningless result, however.
Vote:June 30th, 2005 at 6:20 am
Thanks BB. Incidentially the gap is not totally meaningless. There is a formula where one can work out the probability that Result A is higher than Result B, even if within the margin of error.
Also note that the 10% international gap was an approximation. In some countries like the US it has been as high as 20%, in others it may not exist at all.
Vote:June 30th, 2005 at 9:06 am
Breaking down poll results and trying to draw conclusions is dishonest frankly. One should resample the population and ask some proper questions and draw conclusions. But lazyness and cost considerations mean that the Herald tries to spin a story out of dishonest figures and David with your skills I would have preferred you made that point.
Vote: