Not even the Police believe the Police stats!
August 31st, 2005 at 8:04 am by David FarrarFrontline police have said they don’t believe their own statistics on the level of crime in New Zealand. Remarkable!
A Senior Constable in Christchurch said he had criminals in his car admit to carrying out 100 car break-ins in a night, but only three complaints arose and hence were recorded..
A man linked to 15 burglaries in Manurewa admitted to carrying out 60 burglaries – most had not been reported.
One officer said anecdotal evidence suggested victims who had not suffered a great trauma did not report the crime because they did not think it was worth the effort. This is why a focus on the violent crime statistics is useful because they are the ones most likely to always be reported.
A frontline Auckland officer said it was discouraging to hear people say there was no point ringing police to report a crime saying “All people see is traffic enforcing and you get a lot of decent people in the public getting tickets for minor infringements.” and “There’s no need for us to be standing out in the road in the middle of the day clocking someone who’s doing five or 10 kilometres over the speed limit. Those resources would be better solving crime.”
Most New Zealanders would agree with the officer. What a pity George Hawkins does not.
No tag for this post.
August 31st, 2005 at 8:25 am
From the article . . .
‘Police Minister George Hawkins said victimisation surveys showed that crime was under-reported but the amount of unreported crime had not increased. The next survey, which is run by the Ministry of Justice, is due next year. ‘
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 8:45 am
How could they get acurate figures on the amount of unreported crime?
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:13 am
Anon:
Wondered that myself. One would think that ‘unreported’ crime, by definition, cannot be quantified. I suppose the gnomes of Molesworth Street can cook up model where they extrapolate unreported crime from the reported figures, but that’s still a guess.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:38 am
I’m no genius (hence the name) but I’d imagine it works the same way any other survey does. You randomly select a couple thousand members of the population and ask them questions about unreported crime.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:46 am
Sounds about right dim.
There’s no way of accurately assessing the dark figure. We can but try.
Unfortunately, the police are involved in a campaign of trying to get more money. I don’t put alot of faith in anecdotal evidence.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:47 am
Wow! if a cop said it it must be true!
You silly bitter fools, you can’t even handle a bit of good news as it might challenge your world view, ha ha!
When a burglar claims 100 burglaries and only 3 are reported, this means he was exagerating! think insurance, think reliability, no no no, lets just assume this thief is ‘honest’ because some 20 year old cop believed him, it must be true!
Have you heard of bravado? are you aware of guidelines for the admissibilty of evidence?…obviously not.
you fools have made my day, that is perhaps the worst example of reasoning on the net right now.
Most people (but not you) are aware that the lowest crime rate and the lowest unemployment rate and not occuring simultaneously by coincidence!
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:50 am
Wow! if a cop said it it must be true!
You silly bitter fools, you can’t even handle a bit of good news as it might challenge your world view, ha ha!
When a burglar claims 100 burglaries and only 3 are reported, this means he was exagerating! think insurance, think reliability, no no no, lets just assume this thief is ‘honest’ because some 20 year old cop believed him, it must be true!
Have you heard of bravado? are you aware of guidelines for the admissibilty of evidence?…obviously not.
you fools have made my day, that is perhaps the worst example of reasoning on the net right now.
Most people (but not you) are aware that the lowest crime rate and the lowest unemployment rate and not occuring simultaneously by coincidence!
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:53 am
The Police just love revenue gathering! You can see it in their eyes when they ticket you! A pimply faced teen with an ill fighting cap covering one ear telling you what a terrible driver you are?
Vote:Anyone with info on the Police bunus system. I read a few years back that Police received bonuses in Navember for Hrs worked. And not just for revenue gathering, but all duties.
August 31st, 2005 at 9:58 am
It really is sad david, you are the director of a market research company and here you are willing t o trust ancidotcal evidance rather than robust stats…
its nice to know you have such little faith in your profession that you can ignore proven stats when it suite you.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:59 am
James c pull your head out of your arse and face reality. Even person you talk to would admit to at least a couple of times in the last 10 years they haven’t reported a crime. Multiple this by the population and this would blow George’s theory out of the water.
Vote:For instance I have had my car broken into 3 times and never reported it because there is nothing the cops can do. They will expect me to go to the station to lodge a complaint. They will not get any evidence from my car and they will only ever find the person responsible by luck.
August 31st, 2005 at 10:09 am
James c – if or crime rate is so wonderfully low and everything thing is soo double plus good with crime and unemployment, why is the governments spend so much money on recruiting police from overseas?
Why would you believe a politician (george hawkins at that) over front line police, you know the people who actually fight the crime? Are completely stupid or blind?
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 10:16 am
“Even person you talk to would admit to at least a couple of times in the last 10 years they haven’t reported a crime.”
Uh… what? If you’re going to make stuff up, at least make it plausible. I don’t know anyone that hasn’t reported a crime.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 10:54 am
The only reason I reported my car pinched was to get insurance. Someone without insurance has no reason to, they’ll not see their stuff again anyway. The cops found my car cos someone called them up, but never found the $4000 worth of stuff in it, and no arrests have been made so not solved at all.
Vote:One thing that pissed me off was the poor service at the station when I went in to collect the police report – I’d done everything else over the phone the night before. They never answered when I rang the bell and when I started to ring it every few secondds (after a quarter hour wait and several others ringing too) they told me to shut up. Why would you bother reporting crime if you have to put up with that sort of crap?
August 31st, 2005 at 11:01 am
What we should have is a Crime Survey, like the British Crime Survey. It would give a different set of analyses not measuring reported crime, but people’s own experience of crime.
Taken together I think the two would give a more useful read on where things are at. If they both showed declines, we’d know something was going right.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:05 am
@Jordan –
Didn’t we used to participate in a survey like that, but then the Labour government pulled-out of the scheme?
(or am I thinking of something else?)
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:09 am
I don’t know, to be honest. I’d be very surprised if Labour of all parties would pull out of a scheme that gave accurate information about *anything*. Part of the reason the civil service has expanded in the past five years is to actually start researching the impact of policies, and finding out more about how we could do policy better. Cutting a piece of that off sounds most unlikely.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:32 am
Weizguy are you an ostrich? cause you seem to have your head in the sand.
The first thing the cops ask you to do when you ring up to report a crime is to come down to the station. If you ever tried to find a station that is open? My partners car got broken into while we were at work. We decided to go past the Newmarket police station to report it. At 5pm on a weekday it was closed. I would have had to go to Auckland Central, and Gaz’s bell ringing experience is exactly what that place is like. It would have meant I had to spend 2 to 4 hours travelling and waiting to fill out a form and nothing happens. Whats the point?
Another example is a saw some kids graffiting the area, loitering and then climbing over a neighbours fence. I rang the cops (to be a good citizen) and they said they would get on it. 2 hours later they rang back to see if the kids were still there.
All the police stats are crap and just political justification to make you feel good.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 12:40 pm
Hello Jordan,
Vote:The victimisation surveys are run by the Ministry of Justice, the last was completed in 2000 and the results released in 2003. The previous 2 victimisation surveys showed that 60% of crime went unreported. The Manukau City council also conducts citizen perception surveys which clearly showed an increase in victims between 1997 and 2003. In 1997 15% of people surveyed had been victims of crime for the year, 2003 this had increased to 27%.
The biggest problem is that it is very difficult reporting crime that does not require an immediate response. When I was a neighbourhood street coordinator in Papatoetoe/Mangere I had a discussion about this with our community constable. The biggest issue was that the Police will not necessarily record any crime reported over the phone (provided you can get through in the first place). You have to visit your local Police station (between 10- 4pm), fill in the forms, ID yourself, have it authorised by a sworn officer and receive a job number. As a result I found that very few people in our Neighbourhood watch area would go to the Police to report the crime. They would ring me, I take down the notes, advise them to visit the Police station but the majority of them would not visit the Police (for various reasons).
I discussed this with the community constable and offered to act as an intermediary by taking the forms to my neighbours, do a little more investigation into the incident, helping them fill the forms and then taking the forms to the Police once a week. But that also was not allowed. As a result about 70-80% of crime in our area was not being reported to the Police.
August 31st, 2005 at 12:55 pm
Aaron
No.
I was burgled earlier this year. My partner called the police. They were there within 30 minutes. They talked to the neighbours, dusted for prints, and took some evidence.
The police were personable, polite, and helpful.
I know i’m not alone in this experience. Guess you got unlucky.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 1:26 pm
Hi Weizguy,
Vote:I would like to know which Police Distirct you live in as I can assure you that we do not get that type of service in South Auckland. Last time I called the Police for a disturbance on our street the Police sent around an Armourguard car.
August 31st, 2005 at 2:54 pm
Wellington Central.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 4:22 pm
I would expect burglary offences to have decreased over the years due to the advances in burglar alarm technology and the marked reduction in cost of installing it. The effectiveness and awareness of DNA evidence would also be a deterrent.I would also expect that under-reporting has increased markedly due to the Police losing the respect of the Public.
Vote:Stats are always subject to manipulation and I believe especially Senior manager’s bonuses do rely on the stats.
August 31st, 2005 at 4:32 pm
Once we had Police Stations with a policeman and his family living in the house adjoining it My mate at school lived in one of these The local cop was well known to both the good guys and the bad guys The area I grew up in had a low level of low level crime Reason The police interacted with the local community and had the support and the trust of that community The traffic cops in the black and whites did the traffic thing.It worked It wasnt broken but it sure the hell is now Why detachment Too many clever buggers who know jack shit about life and real people It aint rocket science but if you continue to treat it like that then it will only get worse
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 4:40 pm
As the stats everyone is arguing about are comparing year on year, the question that needs to be answered is: ‘Has the level of unreporting increased/decreased/stayed the same in the last year, compared to the previous year?’
My guess is that the change in unreporting would not be enough to make the significant difference in the reported stats.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 4:43 pm
As the stats everyone is arguing about are comparing year on year, the question that needs to be answered is: ‘Has the level of unreporting increased/decreased/stayed the same in the last year, compared to the previous year?’
My guess is that the change in unreporting would not be enough to make the significant difference in the reported stats.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 5:19 pm
God – no one who lives in Auckland would dare claim crime rates aren’t spiralling upwards.
When the front gate of my (inner city) flat was kicked in, the cops took 10 minutes to respond despite the fact I live within 5mins drive (during business hours without sirens and lights – this was at 10pm) of the Auckland CBD police station. The guy who did it got away.
When some neighbours blew up a gas cannister, the foot cops arrived long after the firefighters and ambulance, and Eagle helicopter. Despite being the people making the 111 call, we were never interviewed by Police.
Yet just a couple of months ago I was stopped by a ‘spontaneous’ Police check directly outside the same CBD Police station – they were looking at WOF’s and Registration. Can anyone say revenue gathering?
As others have said, no one bothers reporting small crimes anymore. I know of people who’ve had their bags snatched in broad daylight on University grounds, and of course we all know to be careful of muggers on certain side streets. A friend was mugged by some knife-holding kid, but never reported it to Police. Why bother? nothing’s going to happen to the crim and he only lost a couple of dollars.
There simply aren’t enough cops and the ones we do have are stuck filling out stupid forms for other government departments when they should be catching crims. Oh and we let repeat offenders out of jail.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 7:23 pm
So there is some benefit to living in Palmerston North after all – you don’t have to be constantly tossing up whether it’s worth reporting all the crimes you’ve been a victim of. If crime’s spiralling for you Aucklanders, consider the possibility that it might have something to do with living in a city that’s vastly outgrown its infrastructure’s ability to cope and has the worst urban poverty in the country. George Hawkins would be pushed to tie his own shoes, let alone sort that one out for you.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:12 pm
Sir David – I always know when you’ve hit the nail on the head as all the little left worker ants come scurrying out for a squeak.
If you’d actually posted the stats Sally (with phule watching her back) would be here too. What happy little ants they would be then.
Allah protect us.
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 2:48 am
http://coppersblog.blogspot.com/
I can recommend the blog above for an entertaining insight into the increasingly bureaucratic british policing system. I have little doubt you will be able to find the exact same topic being discussed somewhere in his archives, ie crime stats are bullshit.
Thanks, Toa, for the info on the non-reported crimes survey. Who else reckons the 60% estimate is too low?
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 8:38 pm
Hi Aaron,
So you have been the victim of crime in the past 10 years and not reported it, how does this prove that unreported crime has increased in the last 12 months? (which I assume is your point)
The gross figures may not be accurate due to uninsured fools and non reporting, but the % change from previous years would take into account clowns like you and distort the figures downwards for previous years also, making the % change accurate.(non reporting is not a new phenomenon, as you helpfully point out)
Also, what circles do you mix in? everyone I know does report crime as; 1) they believe it their civic duty and, 2) they have insurance.
If you want to take anecdotal evidence over stats then I havent been a victim of crime for over 20 years, which MUST PROVE CRIME HAS BEEN ABOLISHED!, obviously this doesn’t work, as crime does still exist.
Hi anon, A word of advice, don’t listen so unquestionably to a cop who believes a crook who claims 100 burglaries- then assumes this proof of increased crime even after only 3 get reported! and if you prefer this brilliant philosopher cop, then turn to ‘exaggerate’ in the dictionary and try something called ‘thought’.
Vote:Sorry guys, the stats hold.
September 1st, 2005 at 9:00 pm
Right everyone.
James c says the stats hold so the stats hold.
You all just keep quiet and listen to what James says. He is infallible.
The circles (?) he mixes in don’t have any problems doing their civic duty so nobody has any problems, right?. James’s circles(?) are it.
Have you all got that?.
James also gives out advice for people call anon.
To paraphrase – Don’t listen to cops ,get a dictionary? and look up ‘thought’.Hmmmmmmm
Could be some issues there James.
As you all can tell by James’s comments on this post he thinks of himself as our voice so why don’t we just shut the fuck up and listen?
Why indeed.
Allah protect us.
Vote:September 2nd, 2005 at 5:06 am
‘Also, what circles do you mix in? everyone I know does report crime as; 1) they believe it their civic duty and, 2) they have insurance’
It would seem that James’ circles are a bunch of rich, know-it-all, self righteous wankers then.
Let me tell you about my circles James. We dont report EVERY crime perpetrated against us because 1) it is a waste of a) our time, the stolen goods wont be found ever, and b) police time, because they havent got a hope in hell of ever catching the perps of petty crimes because i) they arent CSI and have forensic tools pouring out their asses and ii) they have been told to focus on the bigger crimes because x) they are under-staffed and xx) their new focus is on revenue gathering.
And 2) we dont have insurance because a) it costs too much, b) we dont have anything worth insuring. Note, however, that whilst we dont have anything worth insuring this does not mean that it is not worth stealing.
“but the % change from previous years would take into account clowns like you and distort the figures downwards for previous years also, making the % change accurate.(non reporting is not a new phenomenon, as you helpfully point out)”
BTW dickweed, this part of your ‘argument’ falls down if the level of non-reportage increases (which quite a few people reckon has happened). We dont know if this is so, neither do you know if it has remained constant. SO! The best figures to use are those which are less likely to include a significant unknown, ie they have a lower reportage problem. This makes violent crime stats more reliable than dishonesty crime stats.
What has happened to violent crime, huh? Or dont you know what violent crime IS in your circles?
Vote:September 2nd, 2005 at 10:40 am
kimbo and prophet, violent crime is up 1%, no doubt due to lifes ‘angry that i’ve got nothing worth insuring’ losers like yourselves.
You bitter clowns have not NO evidence that unreporting has increased, and in the absence of evidence the stats are all we’ve got.
Or do you dickheads consider that wise cop from the example above to be ‘evidence’?- if you do you are even bigger idiots than your comments would suggest.
To prove your point,What study/ stats/ report, would you refer me to? can this report be challenged? What are the causes of this inconsistency? Why in the last 12 months?
If you can’t answer these then sorry little children, the stats hold.
Vote:And don’t be so emotional, most people with beliefs like yours struggle to express themselves.
September 2nd, 2005 at 11:07 am
On a slightly lighter note… the police do seem to have time for some calls.
They responded three times to a complaint about a topless women in Paraparaumu, according to a story in this morning’s DomPost.
It’s not on the Stuff site (which is unforgivable) but I’ve blogged on it… ‘Dial 111 and scream’ has been replaced by ‘Dial 111 and say there’s a topless woman!!’
Of course you might want to do both, depending on the woman…
Vote: