SST Poll
August 28th, 2005 at 8:39 am by David FarrarToday’s SST poll has Labour leading National by just 1%. They have divided the 850 sample poll into pre and post tax cuts and found pre tax cuts policy Labour led by 7%, and afterwards National led by 6%.
However the poll won’t have covered Thursday’s confusion over forestry policy.
The only prediction I think I have made about pre-election polls, is that I expected to see the lead change hands several times, and it has been.
Tags: Polls
August 28th, 2005 at 8:48 am
I do not think the forestry thing will count for much. But her performance on the leaders’ debate will not have helped her. The tax cut message is starting to have a bite. But Labour is running a skillful campaign and so is National. It also appears to be pretty clean which is a credit to Helen Clark and Don Brash. It is the media who are doing all the tricks including Simon Dellow of all people.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 9:07 am
I also think this might also show that putting the frighteners on the middle class “mortgage belt” isn’t working for Labour as well as it did for John Howard across the ditch.
Cullen also isn’t, IMO, putting a convincing argument that National’s tax cuts are inflationary and grossly fiscally irresponsible bribes, while Labour’s “tax relief” is fiscally sound and socially responsible.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 9:58 am
DPF – you’re a pollster. What do you think of this recent practise of splitting polls into before and after samples? How reliable is a sample of 850 people once it’s been split in half?
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 10:06 am
“How Act helped Brash take over
28 August 2005
By RUTH LAUGESEN
Additional reporting by Irene Chapple and Helen Bain”
Obviously women don’t extend Don the same courtesy as he would extend them
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 10:22 am
It is okay to split polls by time periods, but what they need to do is explain the margin of error for each portion.
A sample 1,000 is 3.2% moe, and if it is split into 400 before one event and 600 after, the moe for 400 is 5.0%.
Incidentially the same principle should apply when they do demographic breakdowns. A 750 NZ poll talking of how people in Auckland are voting is talking about a sample of 250 people which is over 6% moe.
So bottom line is yes you can break plls down by date and by demographic, but the moe rises significantly and this should be explicit.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 10:41 am
David’s advice sounds right to me, assuming that the poll respondents were contacted in random order.
For example, if you chose a smple of 1000 fom all over the country, but called all the Auckland and Wellington people first (i.e. before the split), then splitting the poll would be statistical nonsense.
I note the article quotes “BRC research director Mark Johnson” as stating the methodology is robust, so they have presumably taken factors like these into account.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 10:42 am
SST Poll – the trend is National’s friend
Nw poll by the Sunday Star Times/BRC – National and Labour are neck and neck after a poll of 850 people was taken before and after the National Party’s tax cut policy was announced.
The great news for National, is that in the sample of voters take…
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 10:46 am
SST Poll – the trend is National’s friend
Nw poll by the Sunday Star Times/BRC – National and Labour are neck and neck after a poll of 850 people was taken before and after the National Party’s tax cut policy was announced.
The great news for National, is that in the sample of voters take…
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 12:04 pm
Great news for National!
Vote:Even better news for Winston First, Nationals new coalition partner.I can see Winston getting his old job back as Treasurer. Now the majority of National supporters do want NZ First as their coalition partner.
“Gone by Lunch time” that will be the “Dons” Epitaph. I believe National could be Super Sizing after the dust has settled from the “Don”. I bet Peters would be happy with the baffoon from Ilam, being his stooge?
I bet the ACT Party will be spitting tacks, serves them right!
August 28th, 2005 at 12:54 pm
If the Right loose this election it sure as hell won’t be ACTs fault.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 2:04 pm
Does anyone actually understand what Cadmus said? He seems to have Phil U’s problem, a tendency to speak in sneering rather than plain English.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 2:26 pm
Well, the right won’t win the election without ACT – and that’s not an ACT slogan.
Winston is the only party who National could form a government with really, and Winston is left of centre.
Sorry, but this election is already lost to the centre left. Unless National can get 51% or ACT can pull off a miracle, New Zealand is a lost cause for another 3 years. At least I’m not there to endure the suffering!!
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 2:42 pm
What do you mean 3 years David? I reckon it’s gone for 12 if the centre-right doesn’t win and ACT don’t make it. Where will National’s support come from for the next 3 years? They will be a very lonely opposition. And stop the bullshit people, National can’t govern alone and Winston is anti tax cuts and anti big business – can you really see him supporting National now that they are ‘aligned’ to Roger Kerr & Co? Do you forget his ‘Whinebox’ rants?
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 2:57 pm
You can tell the heat is on when the lefties start raving!
Shawn, you hit the nail on the head and said what everyone else is thinking. I think the only point that Cadmus makes is that ‘P’ and posting don’t mix.
Also, I would describe Winston as right of centre. He used to be a National MP! And he isn’t anti tax cut, in fact he is coming out latter in the week to say whether he supports the tax plan or not. So guess we’ll just have to wait till then.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 3:41 pm
I am not in sync with most right-wingers on this forum nor with Rodney Hyde now that he has declared ACT Liberal or Libertarium , nor with most policies of Winstons. There really is no place for Conservatives and there are thousands of us. I am strongly anti socialists yet I can’t help but admire how united they are.Anderton is a bosom pal and gives Labour a strong voice on forums for minor parties,Fitzimmons campaigns arm in arm with Clark.Thats how you win,” United we stand, Divided we fall” Look at the right Rodney and Winston were slagging each other off and trying to cannibalise Nationals votes in the leadup to the election and since. National was trying to eliminate them from voter consideration
Vote:and continue to do so. The strategy should have been not to stand against Hide, Peters, or Dunne, but to campaign for the party vote only in those electorates without any promises of support.
August 28th, 2005 at 3:48 pm
Centre bet has clarke paying $1.28 and brash $3.25
in view of the lastest polls bash is a really good price. I might have a monkey on him
https://sports.centrebet.com/?compList=88066&sptid=2
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 4:21 pm
Your mistake Baxter is in thinking Peters is on the “Right”.Hes a big govt fan.In New Zealand “right Wing” means any position the Socialists disagree with. Its a catch all label that we should reject out of hand. Define or be defined…untill we learn that the Left will always be ahead of us.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 4:24 pm
Too right Ian.
I have a $20 in my wallet with Don Brash’s name on it….. literally, he signed it!
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 4:38 pm
James wrote: ‘In New Zealand “right Wing” means any position the Socialists disagree with. Its a catch all label that we should reject out of hand. Define or be defined…untill we learn that the Left will always be ahead of us.’
And this weeks award for ‘irony so unintentional it threatens to rip open the fabric of space-time itself’ has a winner!
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 5:34 pm
Has anyone seen the TVNZ tax poll? It asks “Whose tax policy would benefit you the most?”. Somehow, Labour has managed to get 60% of the vote while National only has 35%. Direct link: http://tvnz.co.nz/cda/tvnz/poll_skin/606239 (also here down the bottom: http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_index_skin/news_index_group)
Am I the only one who can’t understand why, when Nationals tax policy benefits all working kiwis, and Labours only select groups, Labour has a huge lead in that poll? I believe the same question was asked in the Colmar Brunton poll and the results were almost the opposite. Have National not been pushing their tax calculator enough?
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 5:43 pm
James Doherty – I think those self-selecting online polls are utterly meaningless. Maybe a bunch of Young Labour supporters have been sitting at their desk clicking on the poll all afternoon – and the result reflects this . . .
It’ll be interesting to see the results on the (real) One News poll – I understand it’s sample is totally post-tax cut. The SSTs post tax cut sample size was (apparently) less than 400.
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 6:12 pm
Well Colmar Brunton Poll still has National three behind. I know there will be more ups and downs; but I don’t think National can afford any more of the latter…
Vote:August 28th, 2005 at 6:17 pm
Aaron has posted the results here: http://bhatnagar.blogspot.com/2005/08/tvnz-national-closing-in-on-labour.html
Good to see the gap closing, but National still doesn’t have enough seats (even with NZF + UF + Maori). Looks like they’ve still got some work to do if Don is going to be PM.
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 2:37 pm
In a random unscientific poll conducted over the weekend by yours truly of 11 people 100% stated they would party vote National.
These people had previously voted as follows 4 for Labour, 3 for National, 2 for Greens & 2 for United.
All stated that most parties had some good policies. Most stated that they were not sure which party would be best for the country as a whole so in the end decided to vote selfishly for the party the would give them the most.
The sample was of middle aged average to high income earners. Some with families, None with student loans. (Thank god for getting a degree in the 80
Vote:August 29th, 2005 at 3:14 pm
Shawn…Have you given that money I won for you to Rodney Hide yet?
Vote:The ACT Party is desperate with Hide asking for a cool $500.000.00 in donations, Im pleased to help! Pity Roger Kerr has locked up the cheque book!
August 30th, 2005 at 7:53 am
Hi, first time poster, long time reader. Getting back to the SST poll, I thought it was a bit strange that it did not report ratings for United or the Maori party. I’ve since asked BRC, and they said that both got 2%, the same as ACT, whose result was reported. A bit odd don’t you think?
Mind you, it was Helen Bain.
Vote:August 30th, 2005 at 7:57 am
Hi, first time poster, long time reader. Getting back to the SST poll, I thought it was a bit strange that it did not report ratings for United or the Maori party. I’ve since asked BRC, and they said that both got 2%, the same as ACT, whose result was reported. A bit odd don’t you think?
Mind you, it was Helen Bain.
Vote: