TV3 Poll
August 31st, 2005 at 9:24 pm by David FarrarThe TV3 poll (normally the one which has National lowest) tonight has National back in the lead.
The poll was done from 25 to 30 August so most of it doesn’t take account of National’s Treaty policy released on Monday, which could move things even further.
On this poll a Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive coalition would only have 59 seats. National/NZ First would have 59 seats and United would have two. Who thinks United would choose a Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive option?
Regardless of who you support, isn’t it a fun campaign to have the lead swapping backwards and forwards so often. This is what campaigns should be about!
Tags: Polls
August 31st, 2005 at 9:30 pm
Doesn’t this poll show that even two or three seats from Act could be crucial to any right-wing coalition? Maybe all the Nats who have been chanting “No need for Act” should be a little thankful for the latest Epsom poll.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 9:42 pm
One extra seat could be vital. It is hotting up!
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 10:34 pm
Winston:
Well, assuming there’s a net gain in the total center-right vote you may be right. But, as I’ve said over and over, ACT needs to win Epsom and/or get over the 5% threshold.
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:16 pm
It’s amazing that such inept politicians can actually spur public sentiment.
Centrebet has come back to my odds of $1.45 for Labour after being all over the place for the last week ($1.28 at one point). National was a bute bet at $3.25 with Centrebet a few days ago (now $2.55).
Tip: Since they have not reacted to the TV3 poll yet I suggest smart people get a hop a long and put some $ on Brash now because it will change very soon
Vote:August 31st, 2005 at 11:37 pm
I want to put money on Brash, but I don’t understand how the betting system works.
So.. if I put money on Brash when the odds aren’t in his favour, when it comes time to collect my pay out, do they pay out based on the odds at the time I beated… or the lasted odds that they had him on. If you know what I mean.
I foudn this interesting political beating site: http://www.politicalbetting.com/
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 12:10 am
Nick:
Vote:Centrebet will pay at the odds quoted at the time you make your bet.
September 1st, 2005 at 1:25 am
I wish the TAB would do odds on these sort of things, or at least get rid of the state monopoly so I could do it.
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 5:10 am
and i wouldn’t get too excited over there in nat camp..the actite revelations haven’t finished their poll-lag yet….and coalition partners..?.mmmm?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 6:46 am
I know. The Labour Party will release a whole lot of unsolicitored emails to Don Brash saying that it is part of some vast right wing conspiracy. Then Don and Helen will meet in another debate and Helen will put on that deep deep deep voice and start talking over Don Brash every time he says something she does not like. The Labour Party and others will claim a massive victory for Helen and say then are on the road to victory. Yeah right.
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 8:54 am
Watch Helen closely in the next debate. She has been trained to take a breath in the middle of a sentence so that she can start the next sentence without leaving any gap for interjections. Continued interjections will make her louder and more frenetic.
Vote:Also watch for her left cheek rapid twitch/quiver as seen on Kim Hill last night. She does this when she is rattled and on shaky ground. She will also try to speak even deeper when she wants to convey authority.
Note when her smile is fixed and forced, this is the bullshit smile.
Don Brash has a much more natural smile and should use it more often when he is unreasonably criticised. It conveys a quite confidence.
September 1st, 2005 at 9:04 am
Speaking of Kim Hill last night – it was interesting to hear Jim Anderton’s comments. Specifically, he said that the labour ministers *didn’t support KiwiBank OR the 4-weeks annual leave*.
I guess he should be pretty pissed-off to listen to Helen trumpetting-on about these policies as great success-stories for the Labour govt.
More proof that she will sell her soul for a few rating points.
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 9:23 am
I never heard Kim Hill last night. She allowed Helen to espouse the virtues of Labour ad nauseum without a mere question. Yet, when Rodney Hide was on last week, there were interjections every .5 of a second. Maybe Kim has developed lockjaw or laryngitis in the last 7 days?
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 9:28 am
Phil:
Sorry, that ‘lag’ argument becomes a lot less credible when the major news organisations are polling weekly. Sorry, but I think this is another supposed lefty ‘king hit’ that just isn’t resonating outside the partisan/media bubble.
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 1:33 pm
Grim Thrill is but another example of the Socialist media who have given up any pretence of neutrality Tenth rate
Vote:September 1st, 2005 at 1:49 pm
Gooner – try taking your TV off mute.
Vote: