Final Results
October 1st, 2005 at 11:47 am by David FarrarThe final results are in, and the Maori Party has gained an extra seat at the expense of National. The actual effect is to reduce their overhang, so Parliament reduces from 122 to 121 with National losing a seat.
Commisserations to Katrina Shanks who was an MP-elect for two weeks. It must be gutting to be so close, and a real shame Wellington have a third National MP.
Also commisserations to Nandor who didn’te make it back, as many were picking.
No changes to electorates on specials with small majorities increasing a bit. Clarkson beat Peters by 730 in the end. A great result.
So Parliament is now:
Labour 50
National 48
NZ First 7
Green 6
Maori 3
United Future 3
ACT 2
Progressive 1
Total 121
61 seats is a Government as that would make votes 61 to 60. Even if National could get NZ First and United Future to support them that is only 60/121 so Helen Clark will be forming the Government, and I expect very soon.
Labour/Progressive is 51 seats. Add on chief poodles the Greens on supply and confidence and they have 57 seats.
Now if NZ First do abstain then each s&c vote will have 114 votes and need 58 votes to pass. They are still one short. So they do need Maori Party or United Future to formally pledge support. Helen will not be pleased it was Maori Party instead of Greens or Labour who picked up a seat off National. Either Maori Party will also abstain on s&c votes (meaning one then needs 56 votes out of 110) or either they or United Future will agree to vote for the Government.
Goes without saying that Winston is quite capable of changing his mind on supply and confidence abstentions. Relying on Winston to stay in office is always a bad thing.
Now actually passing legislation is another issue. NZ First will not abstain on that. You need 61 votes so ways Labour can pass votes (on bills National and ACT opposse) is:
Labour/Prog/Green/Maori = 61
Labour/Prog/Green/NZF = 64
Labour/Prog/NZF/Maori = 62
Labour/Prog/NZF/UFNZ = 61
Basically Labour/Prog always need either Greens or NZ First to vote with them. They are stuck if they can’t get ooe of those two. If they can get both they are sweet.
NZ First is slightly mopre valuable than the Greens. With NZF in favour you can make 61 with UFNZ”s three seats. But if you only have the Greens, then you need the Maori Party four seats as the three from UFNZ is not enough.
So what does Clark have to do. Well if I was her I would sign up United Future on supply and confidence and have NZ First and Maori Party abstain.
Then for actual bills, you need to either get Greens and Maori Party to both vote for them (stuff like handing money out) or you need NZ First and United Future (stuff like tougher law & order).
No tag for this post.
October 1st, 2005 at 12:02 pm
overhang was 211?
Vote:I think it was a shame Nandor Tanczos and Matt Robson are no longer MPs.
October 1st, 2005 at 12:15 pm
I think it’s great those two are gone! But if you like nuts in parliament, don’t worry, there’s still plenty of them (the MPs on the left).
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 12:17 pm
A pragmatic coalition would be labour, progressive and nz first – with confidence and supply from the greens.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 12:27 pm
Who would want to be in coalition with NZ First?
Vote:LPG coalition would still work if NZFirst keep to their word and gives confidence and supply to Labour.
October 1st, 2005 at 12:38 pm
Thank you very much for your election results, thanyou very much !
Labour 2003 41.26% : Labour 2005 41.1%
In 1990 Jim Bolger got 47.8% of the vote against a two term Labour Government , Don Brash got 39.1%.
Vote:Labour in 2003 got 41.26% , this year it was 41.1%. So all that noise and heat and Don reduced labours lead by 0.16%. !!!!!
Of course Don did decimate all the smaller parties, gee they will love him over the next three years
I think the right of the NP have a lot of explaining to do to their big money supporters. Perhaps even the EB will be questioning the wisdom of God , since it is he who decides elections not voters
October 1st, 2005 at 1:55 pm
It seems that not a lot has changed . Clark still has a lapdog on the left(Greens) and a lapdog on the right (NZ First)Legislation abnoxious to the poodles will be acceptable to the pitbulls and vice versa.Abreakdown of how the specials were made up would be interesting and for National some deep analyses of why they did so poorly in an area where traditionally they outperform Labour.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 2:34 pm
Perhaps, baxter, it shows that special voters are less easily sucked in than others?
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 2:38 pm
The good thing is that Nandos is out
Vote:This means the Greenies will have trouble making the threshold next time
They now won’t get the votes of pimply dopehead kids on skateboards, who only voted for the Greenies cos they thought he was cool
This probably was a quarter to a third of their vote
October 1st, 2005 at 3:00 pm
This is what I come here to see…the bitter whingings of disgruntled rightwingers, the most amusing show in town!
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Government can be slowed down by the Nats getting the Maori Party and United Future not to agree to procedural motions. No urgency, clause by clause debates, notice of motions, regulation reviews, etc. etc.
Not exactly sure what those parties will take in return, – co-operation on Question Time and research assistance?
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 3:33 pm
Hi, David,there’s a clerical error in Ur post.
Maori Party should get 4 seats not 3.
>So Parliament is now:
Labour 50
National 48
NZ First 7
Green 6
Maori 3
United Future 3
ACT 2
Progressive 1
Total 121
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 3:58 pm
Emmess,
Vote:Who now in our representative democracy is going to represent the “pimply dopehead kids on skateboards”
Middle aged white men in suits ?
October 1st, 2005 at 4:34 pm
They are usually to busy getting stoned to bother to vote
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 4:41 pm
It is not a done deal she can sign up UF. Indeed I am picking Peter Dunne will not sign up to Labour. What it really means is that Helen will either need NZF or the Maori party. I am not ruling out Dunne chosing to support legislation on a case by case basis. I also think Winston’s confidence abstention will be budget by budget, Queen speech by Queen speech.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 6:17 pm
The Greens are close to the Maori on many issues, it seems logical to me that they should form a co-alition of mutual support in their dealings with Labour to ensure that they are both represented at the Cabinet table perhaps with the Maori Rep being Minister of Maori Affairs and the GReens getting the ministerial posts of Trade AND tRANSPORT.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 7:41 pm
David, What about the need to appoint a speaker? The Speaker is technically neutral and always has to vote for the status quo, for new legislation that would be against if it was tied 60-60 (+the Speaker makes 121) So do they actually need 62?
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 8:03 pm
Andy read the previous blogs from the week after the election. The Speaker now votes with their party EVERY time. Remember MMP allows proxy votes so that they dont even have to go to the ayes or noes lobby. This change came with MMP in 1996 to maintain the proportionality of parliament.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 8:07 pm
Andy – many people make the mistake of thinking the Speaker doesn’t normally vote (even Don Brash made that mistake). He or she does vote with the Whips casting a vote for him/her along with the rest of their party. In the event of a tie a motion fails.
The siutuation changed in 1996 in preparation for MMP.
Vote:October 1st, 2005 at 8:20 pm
Thanks Dave and Kuk, annoyed not to have known that, was away the week around the election with no internet….
Vote:October 2nd, 2005 at 12:26 am
Our friend Emmess would be good comedy were he not just plain tiresome. What is it with the loony right and their insistance that anybody voting Green must be some stereotypical university stoner? In all honesty, my experience has been quite counter to that. Every Green voter I know draws a pretty respectable income, frequently in the technology sector. In the absence of any solid demographic data it’s pretty pointless to discuss further, really.
Comments like those are really about as sensible as suggesting that National and Act did so poorly in the special votes because all their overseas supporters were busy having “Massage holidays” with teenage hookers in Thailand and couldn’t summon the energy to vote. Funny if you’re an idiot on the other side of the political spectrum, but otherwise about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.
Vote:October 3rd, 2005 at 9:50 pm
Notice Ken Mair spends a lot of time with the Maori Party co- leaders, chief advisor? just curious
Vote: