2005 Crime Statistics
I think the NZ Police have been reading Freakonomics. One of the articles in that book advocates that the major cause of the drop in crime in the US in the 1990s is the legalisation of abortion.
The NZ Police are trying to spin things the other way, suggesting the significant increase in crime in Counties Manukau and the Waikato is because the baby blip generation are reaching their mid-teens.
So what do the latest statistics tell us.
The total amount of recorded crime is up only 0.3%. Not much but as I have said for many years this is almost a meaningless statistic. Certain trivial crimes such as disorderly are far more numerous than more serious ones such as rape. You could have a 50% increase in rape and a 10% decrease in disorderly behaviour, and find total crime is falling.
So to make sense of the stats, you need to look at categories or even individual crimes and see what has happened. And remember most of these stats were falling when Labour came into office.
Recorded violent crime was up 7% last year, and has increased 22% since 1999.
Grievous assaults are up 13% (a massive 54% since 1999).
Robberies (not burglary) are up 12% (40% since 1999)
Reported Sexual Crimes went up 6% last year.
And to help save the crime problem, you will all be pleased to know that one Labour Minister (Harry D) wants police to spend less time on the front-line, and instead to take over driver licensing and testing!
April 4th, 2006 at 12:36 pm
It’s not spin. Crime stats are usually closely tied to demographics, and in particular the number of young, stupid males. Which isn’t something under the government’s control (except in places like China).
April 4th, 2006 at 12:37 pm
What would Harry know about the law anyway? It certainly doesn’t apply to him until it gets changed to fit.
April 4th, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Are you sure about the Harry D part? I could have sworn I saw him on TV in the last 2 days (Either 3 evening News or TV1 Breakfast?) specifically asked whether he wanted sworn officers testing for licenses (the topic was License test cheating), and he responded that he thought taking officers off the beat would be a bad idea….
April 4th, 2006 at 1:48 pm
It’s not spin. Crime stats are usually closely tied to demographics, and in particular the number of young, stupid males.
What he said. Crime stats *are* closely tied to demographics: you can track NZ’s trends in offending that way quite easily. Crime is highest when there are most people of crime-committing age.
I predicted last year that there would be a panic about youth crime. I’d love to claim that as an act of piercing insight, but it’s really a no-brainer: youth crime goes up when there are more youth. And it’s highest in the areas with the youngest populations – eg, Counties Manukau. This won’t have come as a surprise to anyone actually working in the system.
Cheers,
RB
April 4th, 2006 at 1:51 pm
One should also treat crime statistics with a certain wariness as it is certainly possible to massage such matters by a variety of methods. One can, for example, change the definition of certain crimes, or what constitutes an actual crime, and also police can effectively refuse to accept a complaint. Over time it at least seems likely to me that burglary is only being reported where there is a requirement to do so to make an insurance claim. Although some burglaries are investigated, a great many are not, same with car break ins. I have had my car broken into twice over the past 6 years, and neither time have I bothered to report it to the police. There are several overseas blogs where other sorts of dodges are mentioned, coppersblog being one I can think of offhand.
April 4th, 2006 at 3:22 pm
So, I/S, are you saying there’s a high ratio of young stupid males in places like Manukau and Otara?
April 4th, 2006 at 3:28 pm
Yes. Crime stats are tied to demographics. Taking that into account though, for a bigger picture comparison, I went back to 1960 when 3,057 prison sentences were imposed. The percentage of the population under 30 was 53; now it is only 43. Despite today’s population being considerably older, the rate of sentencing per 10,000 of mean population, has increased by around fifty percent.
And Ed raises another important point. These stats comprise only reported crime. Surveys of crime (NZ has just embarked upon a new one) usually show considerably higher rates of victimisation. This is alluded to in the briefing to the incoming Minister for Police in August 2002. Much crime goes unreported.
April 5th, 2006 at 4:15 pm
“Crime stats are usually closely tied to demographics”
That is true, and in this case it happens to be black gangs, specifically pacific islanders and maori. However, the media insists on calling them “Youth gangs”, why can’t they call a spade a spade?