One News Poll
May 28th, 2006 at 9:15 pm by David FarrarOne News had a Colmar Brunton poll tonight. I missed it and their website is unresponsive but I am informed results are approx:
National 47% (+2)
Labour 38% (-4)
Green 5% (-2)
NZ First 4% (+2)
Maori 3% (+1)
The 9% gap might be seen as optimistic as other polls tend to be less favourable to National, but the key thing is the trend, and this shows the gap growing 6% since the last poll at the end of March.
This makes sense with the negative reaction to the budget. Once upon a time budgets were meant to help, not harm, the Government!
An election based on those results, and with no change in electorate seats would see:
National 61
Labour 49
Green 6
Maori 4
ACT 1
United 1
Progressive 1
Total 123
A National-ACT or National-United Government would have a majority 62/123 seats.
May 28th, 2006 at 9:24 pm
What about National-Maori as a smart choice, since the Nats can take ACT’s support for granted anyway (just as Labour does with the Greens). It would be more stable, numbers wise, without the pressure of errant backbenchers causing headaches as they invariably do when in govt.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 9:25 pm
The Morgan Poll had National on top as well. But the Labour Gopvernment has this capacity to build its-self back after a poll deficit. No doubt they will be beavering on this one as well.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 9:37 pm
Yeah sure Zutroy, just what the voters who supported Brash post Orewa would want to hear, National going into coalition with a bunch of racists.
What the Nats have to do is go for the left wing media, as the Canadian PM is doing, (and his poll numbers are steadily improving.)
http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/may/06052501.html
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 9:42 pm
The ACT/National Govt would be at least one that would provide pure National policy with Rodney giving the oppositon plenty of grief on the opposite benches. Rather that than Dunne forcing National to spend more taxpayers cash on his pet projects….
And what better to reverse the madness of Labour than Nat/ACT!
Good poll result for National, well done! May the pattern be the same in the months to come.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 9:50 pm
It would make a nice change to see labour being required to answer questions rather than just “addess” them with a flip smartarse comment.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 9:54 pm
I like the flip smart arse answer to a serious well thought out question it shows the Labour Party has no answer at all. John Key and Bill English and Tony Ryall all ask well thought out questions and Labour Party Ministers think flippant smart arsed answers with a glib catch line gets them through. But National just keeps posing the serious well thought out questions and nothing comes from the Government.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Reading those poll results sent a shiver down my spine, what I wouldn’t give for a result like that on election day…
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411368/727753 Here’s the results.
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 10:14 pm
Labour has $9 Billion dollars to play with and 3/4 of all families feeding from its through and they still poll this badly ?
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 11:05 pm
Just like in those pre-election Epsom polls, those stupid people at Colmar Brunton are asking the wrong question. Nobody knows who ACT is so of course they are only going to poll 1.1%.
Next time, ask them if they support Rodney’s Party and you’ll get a real suprise.
http://rodneygrub.blogspot.com/
Vote:May 28th, 2006 at 11:27 pm
But in bright news, Helen Clark still leads the preferred PM race – which is of dubious relevance considering we don’t elect our executive and legislative branches separately but never mind… I can;t wait for Jordan Carter to explain that Colmar Brunton is a CIA/Exclusive Breteren front that only polls dirty rich white scum… or, more likely, he’ll just ignore it.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 6:02 am
Redbaiter – better the Maori Party than a coked up psychopath like yourself cheering the National Party onto whatever kneejerk reaction of yours you’d tell them to follow.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 7:20 am
Meanwhile, nice to see the spin starting in the O’Herald (on-line, didn’t notice :
The so-called “boring Budget” seems to have made voters lose interest in Labour, with National opening a sizeable lead in the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll.
The poll puts party vote support for National at 47 per cent, up 2 per cent from a March poll.
Labour has slipped 4 per cent to 38 per cent, while the Greens – down 2 per cent to 5 per cent – are the only other party to poll above the 5 per cent MMP threshold to return MPs to Parliament.
[...] In further bad news for the Government, more people now disapprove of its performance than approve. Approval fell 6 per cent to 42 per cent; disapproval has risen 7 per cent to 43 per cent.
[...] However, it is understood the leaking of one of the main Budget announcements – the planned freeing up of telecommunications regulations – and subsequent hunt for the man who had leaked the confidential Cabinet documents – was being largely blamed for the poor poll result.
Humm… Denial is not just a river in Egypt, it seems. While it’s perfectly valid to say the One/CB poll tends to skew towards National, this in tandem with the dead heat in the poll that tend to skew skew the other way (such as the TNS/Three poll at the height of the red-white-and-blues under the bed non-scandal) must be a concern.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 7:29 am
The budget was a missed opportu nity for the Labour Government to recapture the political agenda. I do not know what the political agenda was in the budget but carping on about Brash saying that Australia is more attractive is not going to do it for the Labour Party. At least Brash sees there is a problem there, the Labour Party do not or do not care. But it is getting pretty thin for Labour if a budget leak on soemthing as obscure as telecom loop unbundling coupled with a fall in its share price means that time is running out for Labopur.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 9:16 am
Don in bed with Pete,maybe,but with Rodney or the Maori party I don’t think so.Act and the Nats had a great time trying to cut each others lunch during the last election and the anti Maori comments from the Nats sort of cooked that one.But you never know,maybe Winston and Don could kiss and make up.A populist and a,oh thats right,a single policy party called “tax cuts” could cut it.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 10:19 am
Zutroy, you missed the point. Confronting the left wing media has driven the Canadian’s PM numbers up. There’s a lot of votes in dissing leftist media stooges like Sue Botox Wood and little Johnny Castro Campbell. Of course there’s many a National party member whose political views are so far left they wouldn’t recognise the media bias if it was chewing their right leg off.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 11:37 am
Tim, on the other hand it could be that Labour decided to forgo the opportunity and actually invest some money in the country’s flagging infrastructure.
Vision over knee jerk populism is just so out of fashion here.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 12:18 pm
slurp slurp slurp
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
I wonder why TVNZ said ACT and UF ‘failed to register’. According to their release, they got 1.1% and 1.4% respectively – both parties are then entitled to two MPs.
The other thing to note is 908 out of 1200 people polled responded – meaning 25% of the vote are either not voting or undecided.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 4:42 pm
Labour polled badly in the 2000 winter, maybe it will again in 2006.
It’s a case of, what Labour allowed, the people now have – what National offer, they might like to have as well (incited by a print media in love with tax cuts).
But in 2008, Labour will have an another offer and once again this may be the favoured one.
Maybe Labour will simply receive credit for enabling this re-distribution? After all public favour for National (wingmen/wingwomen), is just using them to negotiate an improved offer in 2008.
Vote:May 29th, 2006 at 4:56 pm
David is right, it’s the trend that matters, as much as the figures.
These polls also miss the tendency of the minor parties to grow their votes in the election when voters seem to get cold feet for majority governments. Not that there is much the pollsters can do about that.
As for Jordan’s bias, every person who makes a comment on politics colours it with their own POV (ie their own bias) so he is doing nothing that you lot on the right do time and again in commenting on the issues. Get over it, we all do it.
The sign of a dead administration is the inability to respond to poll results like these. Time will tell if Labour can respond or if they are dead in the water.
Vote:June 17th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
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