Labour’s List

It has been a feature of Helen Clark's leadership that she has protected her Caucus colleagues from more talented candidates for the last three elections. Labour has followed her wishes, and pretty much put all the at the top of the list.

Hence it is significant that she is talking that this should not happen next time. Matt MCarten focuses on this, as does Fran O'Sullivan.

Ironically at the last election National agreed to rank its 25 re-standing MPs in its top 30. But that was done due to the unique circumstances that after such a bad result in 2002, it was obvious National was going to be able in 2005 to bring in considerable extra talent, as well as keep all its current MPs. I certainly hope and expect that there will be no such deal in 2008 and that MPs will face list ranking as they normally do.

So which Labour MPs may be at risk of not getting a winnable list place. Here's their List MPs:

Michael Cullen – safe as houses if he wishes to carry on
Rick Barker – moderate risk. He is a Minister, but not a particularly good one.
David Paker – low risk. A potential front bencher for their fourth term.
Dover Samuels – extreme risk – may be gone within months
Mita Ririnui – moderate risk – depends who else they can find
Margaret Wilson – low risk – but she may retire if Labour looks unlikely to win
Charles Chauvel – low risk. Thought to be a future Minister.
Ashraf Choudary – moderate risk. PC forces will probably protect him.
Russell Fairbrother – high risk. Not forgiven for losing Napier.
Darien Fenton – low risk. The will protect her.
Ann Hartley – medium risk. Being Deputy Speaker may help protect but unlikely.
Dave Heroera – medium risk. Little achievements but at least he didn't lose a seat.
Shane Jones – no risk.
Moana Mackey – low risk. Young and with a future, but yet to have a chance to prove herself
Sue Moroney – low risk. Another union protectee.
Jill Pettis – high risk, Probably gone before the election.
Maryan Street – no risk. A smart operator.
Dianne Yates – extreme risk. Nothing can save her.

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