Herald editorial on lahars
I thought Stephen Franks and myself were lonely voices amongst the self congratulations over the lahar, but delighted to see this editorial from the NZ Herald:
Environmentalists are inordinately fond of an idea they call the precautionary principle. Under this principle they argue for all sorts of costly measures against remote or dubious risks to the planet, insisting it is always better to be safe than sorry. It is not always better in fact. If the economic cost of precautions is out of proportion to the possible harm, people are better off living with the risk. But, oddly, our environmental conservators did not invoke the precautionary principle against Mt Ruapehu’s lahar.
Had the dam burst differently than his department predicted and caused serious damage or death, the Government could have paid a high political price. The blame would have lain with its excessive deference to Maori and environmental spirituality which held that it would be somehow wrong to interfere with nature on the mountain.
It is an interesting ideology that holds an element of avoidable danger to be part of the ideal. Perhaps the same principle could be applied to global warming; let’s not try to prevent a build-up in greenhouse gases, let the mean temperature rise and trust that with plenty of warning and a bit of engineering, humans can avoid harmful consequences.
That may indeed be the most sensible response to climate change but it is not the one the Government advocates. Its avowed goal of carbon neutrality will impose severe costs on carbon-belching industry.
I think the Herald nails the hypocrisy spot on. The Government spouts the precautionary principle when it suits it, but drops it in the face of offending the mountain spirits.
March 22nd, 2007 at 10:50 am
You missed a bit David
“Mr Carter insisted it would be too risky to put earthmoving machinery on the crater rim, and perhaps it would have been, near the end. But much earlier, when the lake began rising after the 1995 eruption, it surely could have been done”
1995, hmmmm.
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:25 am
Don’t matter Sonic, its your religion (gummint gummint and more gummint) that’s to blame..
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:37 am
To blame for, er, everything working out perfectly?
March 22nd, 2007 at 11:55 am
I’m not an engineer, but couldn’t a big pipe just have been jammed into the crater lake to drain it slowly over time?
March 22nd, 2007 at 12:46 pm
sean14. No your not an engineer and no the Herald along with DPF and Stephen Franks are not ether.
People call this a Lahar and in the true sence of the word it may be. I call it a dam burst because that’s all it was and it was predictable in terms of Volume of water that was going to be released. After that is is just theoretical in how it was going to perform. The fact it performed to expectations is luck and experience.
THe one sure fact is that like in 96 and one that was earlier, in the 80s sometime is they happen with not a lot of warning.
This one was known to be going down the whangaehu but the 80s & 96 one went down through the Whakapapa skifield and i’m not sure about Turoa. No loss of life happened and that was pure LUCK.
THe only thing sure after Death & Tax’s is there will be another Lahar or Eruption or both and if it happens at the wrong time IE a winter weekend as sure as hell there will be deaths.
People also forget that the flow from the Whangaehu flows onto the Desert Rd and with the amount of traffic that travels that road compared to Tangiwai is vast.
So did the scientists do the right thing, the answer is yes, will it save everyone in the future the answer has to be no.
This is mother nature and she is too big for us mortals.
March 22nd, 2007 at 2:24 pm
“If heavy machinery cannot operate up there, why could the dam not be breached with explosives?”
Out of interest has anyone ever set off a couple of tons of high explosive inside the crater of an active volcano?
I’m not an expert on the subject but even I can see that might be a bit risky?
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:42 pm
At the risk of being called a right wing idiot,(or just a idiot)has anyone noticed that 9/10ths of the water remaines,in the crater waiting ,WAITING???for the next little eruption
March 22nd, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Who said anything about a couple of tons of high explosives?
A smaller charge, such as those used to expose rock in quarries and open mines, could easily be used to breach the natural damn without the entire mountain exploding.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Well exclamation mark, given that this lahar set off mini-earthquakes I’d be very, very cautious about setting off bombs on active volcanos.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Yes, God forbid New Zealand suffer another mini earthquake.
March 22nd, 2007 at 4:40 pm
The Herald is quite right, the government would bend over backwards to placate Maori (spirituality) voters. They will not bend over backwards to placate the many who believe man made global warming is a crock of shit, why?. Because global warming has become the state’s spirituality and this form of spirituality needs vast revenues of tax income and a huge bureaucracy to substain it’s self. Our government could not have wished for a better spirituality, it’s made to order.
March 22nd, 2007 at 5:01 pm
I take it nobody else read about the theory that with the weight of water gone, it might make an eruption more imminent? That would also seem like a bloody good reason to wait and see.
March 22nd, 2007 at 5:02 pm
Sorry, here’s a linky to the GNS guys who suggest an eruption is possible
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10429678
March 22nd, 2007 at 5:10 pm
(NICE COMMENT)side show bob,IT gives me hope that are bright people left in NZ,AND ON THIS BLOG SITE not people with strange degrees in strange things,(YOU KNOW WHO,you posters) , that bright people dont give a shit about.
March 22nd, 2007 at 6:37 pm
What about moving the capital from Wellington and demolishing the place!
An earthquake is inevitable !
Thousand s will Die.
Lets not let some sort vague notions about property rights stop the forced relocation of 450,000 people.
I think I hear the sound of fat heads exploding
March 22nd, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Sean14,
I’m not an engineer, but couldn’t a big pipe just have been jammed into the crater lake to drain it slowly over time?
Yes the idea of a pipe to siphon the water out is superficially attractive. At sea level a siphon can lift water a maximum of about 10m (32ft or so) before the pressure at the highest point of the pipe becomes too low to remain liquid and it turns to a vapour.
At the height of the Ruapehu crater lake (2500m or so) the maximum lift is less than 4m. Then when you take into account that the water is already at around 70 degC, the maximum lift that a siphon could achieve drops to less than 2m. Not very useful.
March 23rd, 2007 at 3:02 am
I agree with the Herald’s sentiments but they are slightly wrong. The radical environmentalist specifically, only wants the precautionary principle to restrict man’s actions. It is to prevent movement not justify it. It is their form of the Levitical code with Nature taking the role of Jehovah. Anything nature does is the will of their god and must be endured. Man, on the other hand, is the evil sinner who’s actions must be restricted by the morality code that enforces the will of the deity. Most specifically man must never interfer with the actions of God.
March 24th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
The Herald’s analogy with Global warming is arse about face. Leaving the lahar to happen, is not interfering in a natural process. Human action causing climate change is interfering with natural processes.
In the case of the Lahar we now have permanent infrastructure that, let’s face it, benefits us. We like and use roads and bridges, and a warning system for a real risk is always good. (or perhaps the Herald and Mr Franks would like us to demolish all light houses too).
The thing that amuses me the most is seeing happy geologists wading around in mud a couple of days later on the news, while people on the blogosphere moaned about Maori Spirituality. Seems to me that the hairy propellerheads know how to play the game better than some head office types would like
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June 16th, 2007 at 5:32 am
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