Ding dong the fix is dead
Dr Cullen has confirmed today that their proposed taxpayer funding of political parties is dead (not buried though) as it does not have the numbers. Good. The amount of money they were trying to legislate to themselves was obscene.
The way the Government has handled this whole issue has been so bad, you really have to wonder if they are really really stupid or just really really suffering from third term arrogance. I don’t think they are stupid. The mistakes they made:
* Trying to jack up the numbers in private, rather than have a public debate
* Trying to legislate for state funding, while they are still yet to pay back the $800,000 they woe the taxpayer
* Proposing that all activity in election year by opposition and third parties be capped raising huge freedom of speech issues
* Allowing the proposals to leak out day by day in the media, rather than release a discussion paper
* Having changes which so blatantly favour Labour at the expense of National, they look like they are trying to rig the game
* Barely increasing the penalties for over-spending
I am not the only one critical. Read this post (and comments) from No Right Turn:
Theodore Roosevelt once referred to the US Presidency as a bully pulpit – by which he meant a superb platform from which to advocate for an agenda. Within New Zealand, holding the government benches is the best bully pulpit you can get. When a Minister says something, the media listen. The requirement for balance means they will seek out alternative views, but the government’s position will be reported, allowing the public to assess it on its own merits. Labour is systematically wasting this opportunity – and in doing so pissing away one of their biggest advantages. I don’t know whether it is stupidity, or the hubris of seven and a half years in office in an MMP environment which has led them to draw the conclusion that everything can be dealt with by negotiating with other parties, and that the wider public don’t matter – but either way if they don’t start actually talking to us and trying to persuade us of their programme (to the extent that they actually have one), they will receive – and deserve – a good kicking at the next election.
April 16th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
What an excellent headline. When are the next opinion polls due?
April 16th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
What really really stinks about this is the Labour Party want to legislate for dollar caps on spending for months before an election but leave themselves with a totally free hand to spend as much as they like through the Government publicity machine. And this monstrous fix was going to be jacked up in private and then rammed through the house. The Labour Party (hiolding only 49 votes) simply cannot be allowed to mount this grotesque attack on political debate in this country.
April 16th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Good. And they ought to be remembered for their utter arrogance.
Now all they need to do is “pay it back”. Thieves.
To all of the lefty lickspitle champions of this little excursion, may I choose Maharey’s words …
April 17th, 2007 at 6:21 am
Thanks David, this is excellent news indeed.
Agreed – Labour are on a voluntary death ride.
Btw: Is it just a coincidence that Glorious Leader is out of the country playing with boats at this time?
April 17th, 2007 at 7:25 am
I can’t wait for the headline on a post ;
Ding dong the wicked witch is dead .
The country will erupt into jubilant celebration and I will have a hangover for a year. Did that silly boat and the rich – manby panby – boys hit a whale and go down with our appalling mind control fetid leader ?
April 17th, 2007 at 7:27 am
One wonders what sort of hellhole this country would become if the Nazis in the Liarbour party had their way in setting all rules and regulations. They must now be seen as nothing more then power freaks as every move they make is a further push down the path to a totalitarian state.
Also some of the cutless lapdog parties that prop up these scum also need a good kicking. These proposals should not have been considered for one second by the other parties, it just shows how intoxicated with power they have become.
April 17th, 2007 at 8:02 am
This excellent cartoon on Stuff sums things up perfectly.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/287457a17217.html
April 17th, 2007 at 8:56 am
What was revealing to me was the absolute hypocrisy from those on the left who tried to justify Labours position on this. Very apparent they care more about power than what is actually good for NZ and NZers.”Win” at any cost, even sacrificing their own principles of Freedom of Speech and what is just in our society.
April 17th, 2007 at 9:34 am
Great cartoon! Thanks for the link PeterS
Maybe it’s symbolic that Helen didn’t get to race today in her $34m photo opportunity due to lack of wind. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/4/story.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10434630
The government seems to similarly becalmed, and the wind has well and truly been taken out of their sails with this and the S59 fiasco. It seems as though the twin tails (NZF & UF) are wagging the dog, and you can bet that TPF isn’t going to come to Helen’s rescue any time soon.
Go on Helen – if you believe you have the mandate to govern, call an election and put it to the test!
April 17th, 2007 at 10:09 am
Inventory2,
The most significant thing for me about the cartoon was that, finally, MSM are starting to portray Labour as a sinking ship.
Labour’s vote has been propped up by what is, by world standards, an extremely benign press environment.
Voters don’t like to back a loser. If the press portray Labour as looking like a loser, then voters will switch.
I think that Labour and their supporters have been lulled into a false sense of security because the vote has hovered in the upper 30′s-40′s for them, and the assumption has been that 30-40% will always support Labour.
National had that myth exploded for the right 2 elections ago.
Labour has not had that myth exploded- yet. But really there is no reason why Labour’s vote could or would not collapse 20 the 20% level, or less. All that is needed is a viable centre option.
Question- what will happen if TPF is not charged?
If he is not charged, or not found guilty, then a smart option would be for the EBs & Destiny to quietly put their money on TPF (though they would need to avoid associating their names with him).
If that happened, you could probably write South Auckland off for Labour, and with it any hope of government.
April 17th, 2007 at 10:47 am
Peter S, Lets not underestimate what Labour will do to hold onto South Auckland. Remember those letters to Chch Pensioners telling them National will sell their state houses? Think reduced benefits, dawn raids for overstayers,asset testing etc. Labour will use smear and fear. Their age old tactics against the right.
April 17th, 2007 at 10:57 am
Captain Crab,
That is why TPF is such a threat to them.
Labour will probably go hard out to get him charged and convicted before the next election, because the reduced benefits/dawn raids etc. will not work against him.
The big mistake the EBs made last election was in not supporting the greens. They should have critiscised Labour & made nice noises about the Greens, (or NZ1 or UF), just to get voters away from Labour. Attacking the Greens was a bad move, because most Greens would probably vote Labour as 2nd choice, so a vote lost for Greens was pretty much one added to Labour.
Labour will go hard out for South Auckland, but the dawn raids option may backfire. Most will be more worried about dawn raids from CYFS because they gave junior a whack over the backside with a jandal than immigration.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Interesting post Peter S – I hadn’t thought of the symbolism of the MSM belatedly but FINALLY portraying the “Good Ship Helen” as sinking – but maybe the worm is turning, and all the toadies who have bowed and scraped to Helen for so many years are actually accepting the inevitable and cutting their losses.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Inventory2
There is an interesting historical analogy.
Queen Jezebel reigned over the top of her husband Ahab.
The end of her reign happened suddenly, her own Eunuchs rose up against her and threw her out of a window, and the dogs then ate her body so completely that there was almost nothing left.
I’m sure I don’t have to explain which parts the Labour Caucus and the press are represented by in the analogy.
The funny thing is, it is a matter of when & not if it will happen.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Private debate is always held first. That a number of options are discussed is no sign of corruption or arrogance. Releasing their ideas to the press is cheaper than a focus group
April 17th, 2007 at 11:52 am
Ben,
that is true, especially when the proposal is popular, or if you are strong enough to be able to get the proposals through with a reasonable parliamentary majority.
When things are tight, unpopular or your majority is marginal it is a risky undertaking.
The fact is that Labour have handled things about as poorly as it is possible to do.
They have made themselves look completely inept, inneffectual, conniving, deceitful and arrogant.
A sure vote winner.
April 17th, 2007 at 11:57 am
Thinking of panty slut boy… spanking fetishes apparently make men happier…http://www.stuff.co.nz/4028269a19716.htm!!! So Panty slut boy and his Liarbour government must be in a psychotic state of happiness over their pledge card??? Time for the batmobile to smack down the lot of them!!!
April 17th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Peter S, I think it’s an issue that most people don’t give a stuff about. Those that do, mostly partisan, really do. And I don’t think “They have made themselves look completely inept, inneffectual, conniving, deceitful and arrogant.” That is down to the partisans that give a stuff, the only people who are looking.
April 17th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
“Peter S, I think it’s an issue that most people don’t give a stuff about.”
That is possible, but I’m not convinced.
This has had quite a bit of MSM coverage, so it is not just a “beltway” issue.
It is not a good look having proposed legislation being shot down on a regular basi.
You are correct in that it is not a “shock horror, bring down the government” issue.
But NZ does not tend to have those.
This is one of those “nail in the coffin” type issues, just part of a gradual slide.
What has been important is not so much the whole issue, but the bit that gets into and stays in the average non-politico’s mind- and the bits that appear to be sticking are that Labour tried and failed to alter the rules to skew things in their favour. (It does not matter if this is even the case or not- it is what will be remembered)
April 17th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
It could be a nail in the coffin. I think it’s just more symptomatic of the success of MMP. Labour is well aware that they need popular support to win the election, so unpopular issues don’t get past the discussion phase. I predicted this before the election – that this term would be one of little action for Labour due to their narrow margin. They’ve discussed a lot of things, but really nothing has happened so far. The anti smacking thing is about as far as it’s got.
Pretty much everything Labour really wanted to do has been done already so the rest is just ‘well we are the government so we better act like we’re coming up with plans’. National haven’t come up with anything either, but they aren’t the government so they don’t have to.
Interestingly the extraordinarily good performance of the economy hasn’t seemed to count much in Labour’s credit – it seems to be something we just expect now.
April 17th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
What is most significant to me is that twice in recent weeks the government has been unable to command a majority on contensious legislation. This is a government which prides itself on being able to “work” the political system to its advantage, and a government which has been quite happy to compromise on one issue to achieve its ends on another. Suddenly, without the “safety net” of TPF’s vote, the ability of Clark and Cullen to govern with a minority looks to be under threat.
NZF and UF now hold all the cards – Labour is powerless to push through its legislative agenda without a diverse and divergent group of support parties. And if Peters knows that he holds the whip-hand it would be naive in the extreme to believe that he won’t use that in order to shore up support both for himself and NZF.
April 17th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Ben
“Interestingly the extraordinarily good performance of the economy hasn’t seemed to count much in Labour’s credit – it seems to be something we just expect now.”
That should not be too much of a surprise.
Labour inherited a pretty strong economic position.
The difference is that, when Labour came to power we were actually performing better in many areas than Australia.
Now the pendulum is well and truly in the other half of its swing, and people are looking and saying that, whilst things are ok, we have not kept up with the competition, so things could be so much better.
Inventory2
Winston is a pretty sharp operator, and there is a huge opportunity here for him to grab a significant proportion of the vote (and it would be at Labour’s expense this time).
What would be best, long term for NZ1 would be for them to get 3rd party status at the next election (at Labour’s expense), but then to stay in opposition. That would give them a HUGE springboard for the following election to push for 2nd party status.
Twice now they have managed one good result, but then managed to almost snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by going into coalition, paying the price at the next election.
April 17th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
IMHO those of us of the right gotta hope that the current gumint stays there until the scheduled election time in 08. The good Dr Bollard will be increasing interest rates and this will be the tipping point for the mortgage belt. All things being equal house prices will either level off or start to drop whilst mortgage rates will bite on fixed loans in the lead up to the election. And despite all the spin in the world when middle NZ sees its biggest asset dropping in value whilst paying more to own it then the gumint will be dead in the water.
April 17th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Peter S, there’s lots of reasons for the economy being how it is, and some of it is surely down to the previous govt. But Labour’s been in for 8 years now, so a fair bit can be credited to them.
Instead, comparisons are made to countries that have performed even better. We still outcompete Australia in ‘many areas’, but sure, their average incomes are pulling ahead of us, and have been since the 1970s. Good on them. Doesn’t mean Labour’s cocking up the economy – we could both be doing very well. I expect that relative difference to continue increasing, personally, no matter what government we have. Growth is exponential, after all, so 2 countries with identical growth but different starting points will diverge steadily.
April 17th, 2007 at 2:24 pm
Ben,
True, but it is perception that counts.
There is a lot of perception that Cullen has been little more than a passenger.
If you will forgive the analogy, I think of Cullen in this way -
Imagine GGGGranfield, peddaling his bike, hands free, wobbling side to side & throwing the odd package in one direction or another to help him keep balance.
He knows that he cannot ride hands free forever, once momentum slows, balancing becomes more difficult, but he also knows he lacks the skills to take a firm hold on the handle bars to regain control.
Cullen spent most of the last 7 years talking about a crash, but hoping for a soft landing.
Sure, the situation is better than if you put someone like Mallard in control, he would grab the handlebars and smash straight into the nearest lamp post.
I think that Labour can be credited for not having stuffed up the economy, but I also believe that they coasted when there was an opportunity to make real progress.
gd has a point, if interest rates do continue to rise & the government manage to start to bring down house prices it is going to be a big vote loser with those in middle income belt that still support Labour.
The cost of a social conscience can become too high.
April 17th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Peter S, it’s a ‘what if’, of course. I prefer to think of Cullen as risk averse. Which I prefer in someone managing money I didn’t explicitly agree for them to manage!
April 17th, 2007 at 2:40 pm
Peter S My moneys on Dr Bollard raising the OCR 25 points next week and another 25 points in June. That will push mortgage rates to the high nines. The Banks will fight each other to keep under the magic 10 but I figure thats the good Drs desired level. He knows that 10 is the big number and if he has to he will push the OCR yet another 25 points around the end of the 3rd qter.All of which will have Dr Cullen breaking out in a cold sweat.
Plus dont forget the (cough cough) talks behind closed doors between Dr Bollard and the Bank CEOs.I wonder how Paula at the CC views this?
April 17th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Ben,
delicately put
gd,
when were interest rates last above 10%?
Memory seems to say it was during the final term of the Lange Labour government.
April 17th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
PeterS well spotted Isnt it interesting how history repeats itself. So do you also see the end of the this Socialist regime playing out like the end of the FOURTH REICH (sorry Godwin)
Will we see the leader throw their toys out of the pram. Who will take over from them in the final days. Will there be blood on the floor over fiscal policy.So much to look forward to. So much allbe it expensive entertainment from my employees in Wellington.
April 17th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
gd,
I’m not sure about the 4th Reich, I like the Jezebel scenario I posted earlier on the thread (it avoids offending Godwin for one thing, and the more you study it, the closer to the present it looks).
It is interesting how much time the PM has been spending out of the system recently, and how conveniently these coincide with difficult issues.
I suppose she feels safe, because the emasculation of the Labour caucus has been so thorough that few successors remain, and fewer of them are viable. The “night of the long knives” may turn out to be the night of the butter knives.
However, no leader is eternal, and the inevitable will happen. Most likely before the next election and most likely during an overseas trip for the PM.
Since most overseas trips are pre-planned, it could be quite fun to have a look at the schedule and run a competition to try to pick which one will see dear leader’s demise.
I doubt HC will hang around till next election. The writing is already on the wall. I actually almost feel a bit sorry for the person that will take over, because they are likely to get an absolute pasting come election time.
Goff used to be my pick for next leader. It depends how eager he is. If he is smart & patient he would let someone like smarmy Maharey or Duckbilled Mallard to take over, then they could take the hit at the election, and Goff could step in to start the rebuilding.
The problem that Labour has is that HC has been in place long enough to cull out most of the talent, and the next tier are mainly hacks & sycophant yes women. They are in a much worse condition than National in the end-of-Bolger/Shipley era. Worse even than Labour post Lange.
April 17th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
How about Tim Barnett for a replacement for HC.
I can just see the announcement.
“The queen is dead.”
“Long live the queen.”
;-p
April 17th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
To say that the Government has had any significant role in the economy without looking at the global economic picture is to have ones head firmly up ones arse. This government has ridden a global economic boom and managed to squander a large amount of the potential benefit it could have bought to New Zealand by excessive spending and taxation. Imagine a NZ with interest rates of 5% a dollar at US60c and a balanced budget with Government spending at 25% of GDP. These are the kind of benchmarks that a goverment with any sense of responsibility would be aiming toward. Instead we have Cullen looking himself in the mirror every morning, telling himself what a great name the super fund has. Wanker.