May Public Polls
May 29th, 2007 at 10:31 am by David FarrarRoy Morgan published last night their second poll for the month (17% lead) so I’ve been able to publish the monthly polling newsletter early as all the expected polls are now out. There have been five public polls in May, and the graph below shows their average.
The graph speaks for itself.
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Related posts:
- Public Polls Feb 2007
- April Public Polls
- February 2008 Public Poll Summary
- February 2010 Public Polls
May 29th, 2007 at 2:16 pm
This has gotta have ‘em scratching their heads on the 9th floor – it seems obvious that Labours current woes aren’t due to anti-smacking, or Field, or John Key or whatever but are part of a long-term ongoing trend that only briefly reversed itself during the National leadership change.
DPF – is it possible to get an enlarged graph of minor party poll results? I’ve been surprised to see that ACT and NZFirst don’t appear to have benefited from Nationals stampede to the center.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Hey David, when was the last poll taken? Was the sample fully post-budget?
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Given that trends in Australia demonstrate similar polarity, but in the political reverse, I reckon the answer could be that people are JUST REALLY PISSED OFF at over government in general. I know I am.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Danyl – the newsletter when it comes out later today has a minor party graph, so subscribe to it if you are not already on the list. You are right that neither are picking up support, when logically they should be.
Keith – this is also covered in the full newsletter. No the second Morgan poll is from 7 – 20 May so mainly before the budget. Three polls are mainly before and two are post budget.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
HHHmmmmm the 9th Floor will by now be constructing the “Poison Pill Defensive Strategy”
Only real decision is whether to take it or try and slip it into JK’s coffee.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
What happened in January?
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
What happened in January?
Holidays. Very little politics in the news at that time.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 4:51 pm
And very few polls, so not as reliable as other months.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 4:53 pm
What seems surpising is that the shift is direct from Labour to National and that the greens are not benefiting more. There vote seems rather stable and even down a bit after peaking in December.
My prediction is if this continues for another 3 months then there will be a leadership challenge in Labour. There will not be one after October and they will have to run with the horse (a bit of an old nag nowadays) that they already have. Parties rarely remove leaders less then a year out.
Labour and Clark must be praying that they hold the coalition together. If the Greens stop offering to abstain on Confidence and Supply then they are in big trouble although there would be no real gain for the Greens to do this!
Red Rasputin
Vote:http://redrasputin.blog.com/
May 29th, 2007 at 5:01 pm
They got bugger all out of Labour – they might think to get a better deal from the Gnats ! ! ! Two drinks and they’re anybody’s.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
So it’s time to shoot the old mare then?
Vote:Put her down, eh Red?
Trouble is, there’s no fine stallions in the Liarbour stable capable of galloping your party to victory, just a couple of neutered and knackered old geldings.
May 29th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Hell-en KKKlarKKK totally misread the smacking issue.
Not being a mother, she thought it was a belt[sic]way issue. It’s not. Nearly all parents smack their kids.
I predict she will exit at xmas.
Bye bye Hell-en. Smell you later.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
Hell-en KKKlarKKK totally misread the smacking issue.
Not being a mother, she thought it was a belt[sic]way issue. It’s not. Nearly all parents smack their kids.
I predict she will exit at xmas.
Bye bye Hell-en. Smell you later.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
Hell-en is running the new bogeyvision quiz show called the weakest stink ?
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Clark will hold this coalition together come hell or high water. The next election will be held at the latest possible time, as she knows how to buy time. Quite frankly I don’t think any labourites have got the balls to try & roll her before then. However, it is an amazing spectacle to see the centre vote torn assunder.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
Well come on, all you experts. So there was’no politics’ in January! Then why did the polls start to go sour on Labour and sweet for National. What was the trigger? What had been boiling away during December? (I’m blowed if I can remember.) The change is so distinct, sudden and dramatic.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
National seem to have caught a floating vote that looks to be around 8 – 10%.They will obviously want to hold it.Third term electoral attention span coupled with smiling John Key syndrome has hit home. John Key kicked all his penalties but has yet to make a run for the tryline.
The election is an mmp election and everyone will have their eyes on that line.It’s going to be a hell of a pitch aimed strategically at about 10% of the population.If he’s still leading John Key will face a lot of hard tackles in the last quarter of the game.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
The following Herald cartoon illustrates one option for Helen:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/466/story.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10442306
I can’t see Helen being rolled. She is a go-down-with-the-ship type person and she is simply too powerful. Labour will have had 9 years in power. They are old and tired and well in need of rest and renewal.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
Adolf me old mate you asked what happened in January. Key visited McGeehan Close and took that lovely young girl to Waitangi.
Bingo.
Vote:May 29th, 2007 at 10:45 pm
Adolf me old mate you asked what happened in January. Key visited McGeehan Close and took that lovely young girl to Waitangi in February.
Bingo.
Vote:May 30th, 2007 at 12:06 am
DPF,
No UMR poll released?? would be interesting to see what the internal polling of each party is saying!
That graph shows there has been a consistent lead for National since July last year with a bit of tooing and froing prior.
Vote:May 30th, 2007 at 8:46 am
UMR currently only release their polls every three months.
Vote:May 30th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
“National seem to have caught a floating vote that looks to be around 8 – 10%.They will obviously want to hold it.Third term electoral attention span coupled with smiling John Key syndrome has hit home. John Key kicked all his penalties but has yet to make a run for the tryline.”
You can win a game with penalties!
Vote:May 30th, 2007 at 10:19 pm
“You can win a game with penalties!”
absolutely, that’s how Key will probably try and do it.
Vote:June 12th, 2007 at 8:31 am
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