Poll Commentary

A useful collection of quotes from a poll commentator, this year:

29 Jan – “The headline for this one really ought to be “Key delivers a backwards bounce to National”

5 Feb – “This poll is very good news for the forces of the left. Labour and the Greens together poll 52% which if it held in an election, would be a resounding majority under MMP.”

19 Feb – “This is a reasonably good set of numbers for Labour. National will be concerned with these numbers. The Great Key Bandwagon continues what I identified from all other polls – Key’s takeover of the leadership has been met with declining poll results for National, and rising poll results for Labour.”

26 Mar – “The honeymoon bounce has always been inevitable – the same part of the cycle in 2004. The last two Roy Morgan polls, for example, have shown solid but declining National leads.”

1 Apr – “After what has happened to the government since 4 February, the date of the last TV3-TNS poll, to hold fast to these results is a nice vindication. It vindicates what is a boring and oft-repeated story on this blog: the government has been delivering things that ordinary Kiwis want. The reverse political correctness of the right – trying to stir fears about crime, lies about smacking, etc – just do not seem to be getting the kind of traction some of our dear colleagues on the wrong side of politics seem to demand and expect as their due.

24 Apr – “I’m fairly pleased to see the left doing better than it was seven months ago, and Labour’s support increasing. I do not believe that National’s support is solid at 49%, given the results of the last election, and Helen Clark’s continued strong showings in the preferred PM numbers show that Labour remains fully competitive.”

14 May – “Not a good result for Labour or the left, but nor is it an overwhelming endorsement for the right – the left:centre:right balance in this poll is 44:6.7:48.5.”

28 May – “Self evidently, the problem isn’t substance. People aren’t unhappy with particular policies, though the call for a tax cut is very widespread (and shows Labour’s handling of the tax debate has not succeeded).”

The solution it seems is merely better spin.