Poll Commentary
A useful collection of quotes from a poll commentator, this year:
29 Jan – “The headline for this one really ought to be “Key delivers a backwards bounce to National”
5 Feb – “This poll is very good news for the forces of the left. Labour and the Greens together poll 52% which if it held in an election, would be a resounding majority under MMP.”
19 Feb – “This is a reasonably good set of numbers for Labour. National will be concerned with these numbers. The Great Key Bandwagon continues what I identified from all other polls – Key’s takeover of the leadership has been met with declining poll results for National, and rising poll results for Labour.”
26 Mar – “The honeymoon bounce has always been inevitable – the same part of the cycle in 2004. The last two Roy Morgan polls, for example, have shown solid but declining National leads.”
1 Apr – “After what has happened to the government since 4 February, the date of the last TV3-TNS poll, to hold fast to these results is a nice vindication. It vindicates what is a boring and oft-repeated story on this blog: the government has been delivering things that ordinary Kiwis want. The reverse political correctness of the right – trying to stir fears about crime, lies about smacking, etc – just do not seem to be getting the kind of traction some of our dear colleagues on the wrong side of politics seem to demand and expect as their due.
24 Apr – “I’m fairly pleased to see the left doing better than it was seven months ago, and Labour’s support increasing. I do not believe that National’s support is solid at 49%, given the results of the last election, and Helen Clark’s continued strong showings in the preferred PM numbers show that Labour remains fully competitive.”
14 May – “Not a good result for Labour or the left, but nor is it an overwhelming endorsement for the right – the left:centre:right balance in this poll is 44:6.7:48.5.”
28 May – “Self evidently, the problem isn’t substance. People aren’t unhappy with particular policies, though the call for a tax cut is very widespread (and shows Labour’s handling of the tax debate has not succeeded).”
The solution it seems is merely better spin.
May 29th, 2007 at 4:45 am
funnily enough I had a similar thought about Jordans poll comments and blogged it. Check out his polls category and go back through those over the last year. What is interesting is that it is only 8 months since John Key did not feature at all on preferred PM.
Now you can almost laugh at the very reserved tone on I see Red. Do you have the feeling of 1999 in reverse? I sure as hell do.
May 29th, 2007 at 6:37 am
DPF,
The “left” needs a better commentator than Jordan. He’s shown himself to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer – remember the “nasty” party debacle? The guy is a tool…
Kisses,
May 29th, 2007 at 6:50 am
Poor old Jordan.
All he’s holding is a busted flush so he has to bluff.
May 29th, 2007 at 7:10 am
Better spin or do what Jordan Carter suggests a “fresher approach”. This is a freudian slip for a chnage in the leadership team especially Cullen who seems to be preparing for his retirement so he thinks everyone else should too. I suugested this on Tony Milne’s blog but he has not posted it, perhaps he is protecting Carter from a vengeful leadership, who must be on the way out.
May 29th, 2007 at 7:16 am
David,
You probably don’t remember the discussion we had about Phillip Field but it re-inforces what you said to me about not being too enamoured with a particular party just for the party’s sake.
That is the trap Jordan is stuck in and always will be. A sad, sad detatchment from reality that he buys into the spin of his leader and that this is like a cold, easily shaken off when better health comes by.
It is a certain arrogance that is pervasive amongst those close to the ninth floor and is perhaps part of the problem. That problem is it’s always someone elses fault and we shouldn’t take the blame.
That is the extraordinary position we find ourselves in when visiting Jordan’s blog to see certain items having comments allowed and others not. The others not are negative news stories against Labour or polls showing National far ahead. Herein lies the problem – a sensitivity to even facing one’s own problems by not listening to what others are saying.
Even adversaries such as Matthew Hooten have proffered that Labour keep an even keel, listen to voters, and do something positive. If Jordan’s arrogant choice (and he will argue his right) is not to allow comments that may be critical of the government on his blog, then imagine the extent of this same disease within the Labour caucus. They simply aren’t willing to accept others’ points of views. Total arrogance.
May 29th, 2007 at 7:39 am
If they want to close off critical comments then they are truely in denial. I assume the atmosphere will be the same in the beehive “we have to get our message out”, we have to “freshen our approach”. But it seems there is now a discnonect between Helen Clark and the voters. The polls do not explain everything. And looking for Government supplied handouts is not resonating with voters. But “you get more money this way” she shreaks. But she forgets people do not want to be dependant on Labour Party charity from the state and then threatened that if they vote National the charity will be taken away from them.
May 29th, 2007 at 8:38 am
Tim, I certainly hope you are right.
The only way I can see Labour acheiving a “fresh approach” is to change their idealogy or change their leader. I think the latter is more likely if she continues to slide against Key.
She will be sacrificed in the name of fabian socialism. As in, they will decide that putting someone forward who “hasnt been found out yet” might give a better chance of success. It wont work of course because Labour is so totally bereft of ideas and talent. Their downfall actually happenend at the last election when they didnt take the opportunity to clean house and bring in new….unionists.
May 29th, 2007 at 8:50 am
What happened to the story that was on http://www.nzherald.co.nz last night about Labour spending $7.4M promoting Kiwisaver? It seems to have completely disappeared.
I must say I can see it from Labour’s point of view. When you are behind in the polls then that’s the time to spend millions of taxpayers’ dollars promoting yourself.
May 29th, 2007 at 8:50 am
According to Jordan, National is practising the mathematics of defeat. Soon, National will have nowhere to go but down!
May 29th, 2007 at 9:06 am
“Self evidently, the problem isn’t substance. People aren’t unhappy with particular policies, though the call for a tax cut is very widespread (and shows Labour’s handling of the tax debate has not succeeded).”
His judgement is that the style of the Labour party needs revitalisation. This could most easily be achieved with a reshuffle to remove Helen.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:28 am
It seems to me that Labour is so focused on “getting its message out” that they have forgotten to listen to the message that the electorate is sending them. Or perhaps, they are so entrenched in their arrogance that they don’t think they need to listen to the electorate thinks!
May 29th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Thanks for pointing this out DPF.
It shows the boy for what he really is.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Yes, he’s a silly little twit isn’t he. He entirely lacks a mind.
May 29th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
Jordan Carter is no master of spin he is just like a member of the string quartet on the Titanic who keeps on playing as the boat sinks.
Labour can still win the next election despite these polls but it needs to take a good long hard look itself and radically refresh itself. I do not think that Jordan Carter and the tight coteree of Clark acolytes can do this as they are currently in a seige mentality.
Clark must be on a sticky wicket now and it is really time for people in the Labour party to ask if she is the best leader to take the Party into the next election.
Red Rasputin
http://redrasputin.blog.com/
May 29th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
Yep, dump her Raspy. Now all you need to do is get Keith Locke to shift to Labour, and you’ve got your preferred candidate. Or is he too right wing???
June 7th, 2007 at 8:43 am
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June 7th, 2007 at 8:45 am
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June 7th, 2007 at 8:45 am
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June 7th, 2007 at 8:47 am
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