Another one supporting the Goff theory
August 30th, 2007 at 6:43 am by David FarrarYesterday Audrey Young blogged, wondering if the Moore article was a front for a Goff leadership campaign. Today John Armstrong also puts out that theory.
It would also explain why Goff went so troppo over Air New Zealand.
Personally I don’t think there is any realistic chance at all that Clark will be rolled before the election. It doesn’t matter how low in the polls Labour gets – the three dominant factions all support Clark so she is safe as houses.
Tags: Labour
August 30th, 2007 at 7:00 am
It doesn’t matter how low in the polls Labour gets – the three dominant factions all support Clark so she is safe as houses.
More significantly, Labour is polling in the mid-thirties while Clark personally is polling in the high-forties – they’d have to be insane to ditch her now, esp since their most solid support base is female voters who might not be so loyal to a party lead by Goff.
History suggests that the one thing that will cause support for a party to collapse is disunity and infighting. A coup at this stage could easily but Labour in the 20′s.
If this was Moore’s motivation he’s dreaming.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 7:21 am
Clearly Danyl hasn’t read the Ray Morgan poll or seen the internal Labour polling which is showing low thirties. The moment I read Moore I saw it as another sign of the brewing coup. Goff senses increasing unease within the caucus. His friends want to add to this instability and test the water. Moore’s outburst – including the “consort” comment (Helen’s worst kept sectret)- has certainly stirred the pot. Watch this space.
[DPF: Actually the consort comment was a cheap unworthy jibe. There are enough legitimate issues one can attack Helen and Judith on, without suggesting they are lesbians, which the comment clearly was. Moore let himself down with that comment. To be fair to him it is possible he meant it in the sense that Tizard does often escort the PM to events in Auckland, but I doubt the other interpretation was lost on him]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 7:22 am
Sorry typo – Roy Morgan
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 7:22 am
Nah Danyl – these deals are solely about having the numbers. Anyone that’s spent more than 10 minutes in the house knows that. There’s no way Goff is even considering a challange and anyone that thinks he is is in fantasy-land. At the risk of sounding like a Labour hack (I’m not) Moore is yesterday’s man and will have bugger-all idea of what is actually happening behind the scenes (he’s actually better connected to the ALP). A week is a long time in politics and it’s an even longer time out of it. As an insider himself DPF knows this full well which makes me suspect this post is more about having a (not very subtle) go at wedge politics than offering real analysis. I would have thought Audrey would know better though. Maybe it was slow day on the blog.
[DPF: If two senior journalists promote the Goff leadership theory, then I don't think one can suggest I am doing wedge politics. That makes it a legitimate topic. And as it happens, I stated my view that Clark is as safe as houses. And I agree Goff will not challenge Clark. But Goff I am sure is thinking that regardless of the 2008 election result, Clark has less than three years left as Labour Party Leader and I suspect he is starting to position himself - not to roll her, but to succeed her]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 8:02 am
Moore’s consort comment made fun of the fact that Tizard – easily the laziest member of the Labour caucus – keeps her job solely because she’s Helen’s mate. I think he’d be taken aback to discover that there are legions of wild-eyed nutters on the internet who are grimly obsessed with Clarks sexuality, and that his insult would send these drooling freaks into such frenzied ecstasy.
[DPF: As Moore complained of lesbian cabals when he got rolled, I don't think he would be at all taken aback by how his comments were interpreted. I think he chose a term which specifically would be open to such an interpretation]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 8:05 am
This would be the most potent weapon that the National Party could use in the next election; consider this: the voters only vote Labour because Helen Clark has an unassailable image in their eyes. To raise the question “Will she go before the next election or after the next election?” will knock the stool out from under the one thing that Labour has going for it. It would persuade floating voters not to waste their vote on Helen and it would cause the staunchest helen supporter to think twice about casting their vote for a potentially early-retirement candidate.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 8:29 am
Yesterday Audrey Young blogged, wondering if the Moore article was a front for a Goff leadership campaign. Today John Armstrong also puts out that theory.
Well, they work in the same office. In fact John sits right behind Audrey.
The entire press gallery writes the same story, whatever the story is. Its members go as far as to go to each other to ensure they are all pushing the same line. Nobody wants to stand out.
Press galleries the world over are the same. The pack.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 8:58 am
I would be very suprised to see a coup attempt. How could Labour get rid of the preferred PM? Hate to say it but the election is still a long way off and as we know, ‘ a week in politics is a long time’, let alone a year or more.
Clark has already said that we are in a run up to an election. I assume this means that very little governing will be done from now on and electioneering, with all that entails, is going to be our daily bread from here on.
It is interesting that ‘the pack’ are now feeling a little more brave and willing to start the process of even suggesting there may be a few cracks appearing in Labour leadership. I wonder if they have the gonads to keep it up, or if they will quieten down again.
There is so much that needs to be done and so few willing to do it. Our “leaders” really are a pack of totally useless power hungry losers.
It is going to be a very long year……
ps: seriously, what does Tizard do to earn her keep? I would really love to know.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:04 am
First Matthew Hooton endorses Goff for PM on Sunday. Then Chris Trotter endorses him for Finance Minister in the Independent on Wednesday. Then Audrey Young and John Armstrong from the Herald fuel the speculation with these comments. Goff is clearly briefing journalists from the right, left and centre. Something is clearly happening here – but what?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:26 am
DPF: Lot’s of stories gain comment from “two senior journalists” or more. So why give this one oxygen? Because you are attempting to spread a particular meme that fits your agenda as a national party functionary. In this case the meme you’re attempting to spread is wedge-based. Again bro, stop being disingenuous – it’s just embarrassing.
[DPF: Now Robinson wants to tell me what topics I can cover. He is becoming a troll]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:39 am
“[DPF: Now Robinson wants to tell me what topics I can cover. He is becoming a troll]”
Certainly arrogant enough to be a Labour party staffer! I don’t get how anyone can come on to another person’s private blog and make comments like he /she/it has. Staggering.
The party election machine really is ramping up isn’t it. I expect to see more “newbies” from the left appearing as they are allocated different media outlets to attack.
You should be flattered that they consider your blog important enough to allocate dedicated trolling resources. I think you will see a lot more of it.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:44 am
“Certainly arrogant enough to be a Labour party staffer!”
Nah from other thread I read that he wont post under his real name in case his mummy finds out and growls him for not doing his homework….
Speaks for itself doesnt it….
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Bevan, this government is not above using child labour in it’s efforts to stay in power.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:49 am
the problem with trolls is that other newbies here bite on juicy thread-jacking themes and allow the trolls to steer the conversation.
generally the thread-jacking is more pronounced the more painful or potentially damaging the thread topic is to labour. i’ll confess to falling victim a few times but i’m much more careful now
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:57 am
Know your troll:-
(1) Look for linguistic clues and the consistency or otherwise of style be help determine age/background
(2) Look at common content areas and common themes to get clues as to their masters’ directives
(3) Watch for issues that cause rapid replies and/or heightened anger or sarcasm. These are sore points.
(4) Don’t whatever you do feed the troll by biting on their thread-jacking.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:59 am
Krazy_K, could you stop trying to hihack this thread into a discussion about “trolls” and stick to the topic?
I do think though that the source’s of this Geoff rumour are all journos sympathetic to the Nats (Hooton in particular) I see no evidence that this is other than mischief making.
I also think Lee’s point is spot on.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:02 am
That’s it DPF rally the troops! You’ve got a public comments section and I’m just posting public comment. At no time have I said “don’t post this”. I’m merely interested in having a look at why and how you post what you do. The last time I checked going to the motives of someone’s position was a valid part of free debate. It’s not like I’m hijacking threads, posting spam or hurling abuse. Calling me a troll just sounds like a lame attempt to discredit me. Why would you want to do that?
Hey Bevan! Have you found out what you’re name means in Australia yet? I’ll give you a hint – it’s not very nice…
Craig: That was actually funny. Well done.
[DPF: I have troops? Do I get an air combat wing also? A troll is someone who is more interested in disrupting a debate, rather than actually debating issues. Selma is the classic example. And no on my blog you don't get to question my motives every second post. It's boring and repetitive. You can do that all you like on Tane's blog. Unlike almost every other blogger I have a full disclosure statement on my background and beliefs, so you chiming in attacking my motives constantly is trollish. As I said you can do so anywhere else on the Internet]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:05 am
sonic, a fair cop re trolls.
as to the media’s mischief, there’s plenty of that in the air at the moment.
and that’s the point. helen’s cast iron grip on the media getting soft (save for the poll rigging..) and we’re staring to se a few MSM folks dare to publish material that doesn’t toe the party line.
which is excellent!
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:06 am
IMHO you can never say never in politics. History shows that sometimes events conspire to produce the most unlikely outcome.
As others have posted when the pack smells defeat they can easily turn on their leader and the Left have certainly shown this trait in the past.
HC has been around a long time and therefore will have accumulated at least some past items that could prove potentially fatal to her leadership.
Back benchers have a habit of looking for self preservation when the chips are down. Loyalty and sentiment count for nothing with the politcal class.
As I previously posted if the polls show the Socialists heading south of 30 points then its a 50;50 chance of a spill.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Moore’s lesbian crack looks like the opening of a new front in the war. A blunt reminder that for all our supposed tolerance, this Party is distinctly oddball by Western standards.
Just as interesting, it’s the Catholic and somewhat chauvinistic Anderton that comes in with the over the top comments in riposte. He doth protest too much?
Moore may be looking over the fence at the Nats and sighing for a more blokey (and somewhat more representative) leadership in Cabinet. In truth, I don’t think Moore is all that keen on a continuation of this Govt. and would rather see it lose next year, rebuild in a more representative way and lose the shrillness over the US and Iraq. His WTO experience and contacts may be telling him NZ is drifting too far offsides with major trading and defence partners.
JC
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:12 am
LeeC: The demise of the Act Party was nearly accomplished by Media reports that a vote for Act was a wasted vote. That increased Nationals Party vote. Only Epsom saved Rodney’s bacon. I have no idea what role he is supposed to be playing at the moment.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:13 am
gd, agree. i also think the longer helen hangs on the better for national.
the more time she stays :-
- the more challenging it will be for a replacement leader to get Labours house in order before going to the polls. who want’s a hospital pass? not goff i’m sure.
- the more chickens (explosive ones!) can come home to roost weakening her personal standing
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:27 am
[DPF: Actually the consort comment was a cheap unworthy jibe. There are enough legitimate issues one can attack Helen and Judith on, without suggesting they are lesbians, which the comment clearly was. ]
Hmmm.. funny that, are you suggesting that discussion of a politician’s sexuality is illegitimate? I have to disagree, given that there are political factions today based on sexuality and pursuing political objectives based on sexuality. Surely given this circumstance, then discussion of a politician’s sexuality is quite valid. At the least, the sexuality of politicians should be public. Every other damn thing is. Why keep that “secret”??
No such qualms in the US. See the Larry Craig issue. Then again, they’ve got a bit more respect for free speech there, and the concept is not totally overshadowed by politically correct (read Stalinist) social mores.
Of course if they are not lesbians, one could argue that it is unfair to suggest they are. However, if one objects to this kind of discussion, isn’t one then suggesting there is some taint to being lesbian, and isn’t this an attitude that the PC among us are trying to discourage (or even outlaw?) Messy.
[DPF: If someone gets arrested for picking people up in a toilet then it is legitimate news.]
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:33 am
So Redbait – are you straight or what?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:34 am
“……stop being disingenuous…..”
One could be forgiven for taking that as a directive as to what should be posted.
DPF doesn’t have to “rally the troops”. Most of us on here can actually think for ourselves and on a good day we can even form our own opinions.
JC, good post. MM’s timing, along with journos writing things they have previously stayed away from, certainly has us all in ‘guessing’ mode.
More acuurately, it’s probably “hoping” mode!
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:44 am
“Hey Bevan! Have you found out what you’re name means in Australia yet? I’ll give you a hint – it’s not very nice…”
Seriously dude, I couldnt care less – obviously you regard at as some sort of zinger, so why dont you go right ahead. Mind you with the level of zingers coming from the left over the last few weeks – its probably going to be more of a fizzle.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:45 am
There will be no coup. Leftists are a bunch of wimps, firmly under the heel of the feminist jackboot. No men there, or at least no men with balls. All scurrying like lemmings to suck up to Klark, and prove what good little PC boys they are.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Heh. I’ve considered that too – but I think in the end the right of someone to privacy about their sexuality outweighs the principle of outing yourself for the cause.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 10:59 am
There may not be a coup but you can bet your last dollar that Aunty Helen will not be there to front a humiliating loss – she does not have the fortitude. At heart she is a bully, she is unprincipled and above all a pragmatist. She will find a cop out like a recently diagnosed illness or similar to pull the pin – probably before the year is out so that the teflon remains intact. Goff will be the sacrificial lamb and he will be slaughtered.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:02 am
Redbaiter and Llew IMHO one of the postive attributes of any one seeking to succeed in politics is being able to be true to themselves and to those they seek to represent.
If I was to go into politics and then seek to disguise or hide a particular facit of myself and those I sort to represent were unsure as to the reality then I would expect to find myself criticised until I make a statement that was percieved to be the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Its all about perception and its up to the individual to not cloud the matter but ensure the reality and the perception are in sync.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:04 am
Craig – I was talking about DPF’s response to me as being disingenuous – not the post itself. I thought that was clear and am sorry for any ambiguity. And I’m not a Labour party staffer (or even a member) in fact I’m not a member of any political party. I’m kind of flattered you could mistake me for an insider though.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:10 am
robinson
Vote:“So Redbait – are you straight or what?” Now THAT is a trollish comment.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:11 am
“I’m kind of flattered you could mistake me for an insider though.”
Just being facetious really. Kind of a running joke that anyone who looks to support the government must be an insider, being paid to do so, because who else could do it with a straight face.
We’re not all without humour, after all, we put up with roger & sonic.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Has anyone noticed how posters bagged as trolls almost invariably jump, whether prompted nor not, to claim that that are not labour party staffers or even members? it’s like a knee-jerk reaction.
if unprompted, the responses look like a script from a Labour “how to troll” manual. if prompted then can we assume the Labour has lots of supporters who aren’t members?
Back on topic, i think geoff will roll clark. or not.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:31 am
KIA – It wasn’t trollish at all – if redbait is going to claim knowledge of a persons sexuality is necessary to understand their politics then s/he may want to elucidate her/his own preferences so we may understand his/her politics better. I was merely offering bait that chance.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Fresh on Stuff this morning
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4183993a12.html
“Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has vowed to win next year’s elections and said nobody could ever force him into exile. “
Just like dear leader Helen Muldoon- Uses same repression techniques and draconian legislation.
Does Mugabe have a “consort” too!!
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:43 am
KK I was accused of being a Labour Party Staffer, I’m not therefore I deny it. Odd how DPF jumps to deny he’s a National Party insider – does that mean he is, no hold on, does it mean he isn’t or is it that he isn’t but is pretending to be or is but…? See? Trying to understand your messed up logic is just too hard.
More to the point how come you think anyone who doesn’t agree with you is from Labour? Are you a little obsessed with Helen maybe? She’s like, the randomly picked focal-point for your impotent rage perhaps? Bro, get a life it’s not Helen’s fault you’ve got problems, or the result of some scripted back-room conspiracy. Take some personal responsibility for god’s sake.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:47 am
I believe there could be a leadership challenge. If we take the two most recent polls that puts Labour on an average of approximately 33%. That means there will be a lot of Labour MPs out of a job come next election. Now if I was sitting on the backbench I would be starting to get a little nervous at the thought of no job next year. Another poll like we have seen and I believe the knives will be out. Of course the more the media speculates about a challenge the more likely I believe it will happen. Interesting times.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:50 am
hey robinsn, thanks for life skills coaching.
fair comment about obsession with helen, but it’s not random. guess i feel we live in a country that’s well screwed up and she’s been at the helm overseeing this slow train wreck.
the buck has to stop with someone. at the moment it’s Helen. pretty soon it will stop with someone else.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Does anyone know where the original Mike Moore article is?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
I tend to agree that Labour’s caucus would be bloody stupid to roll HC before the next election. Changing leader never works. I simply don’t agree with the revisionist view that Moore helped Labour mitigate an absolute disaster when he was made leader seven weeks before the 1990 election: Labour had its worst result since 1935 at that time.
Goff’s only hope of becoming leader is to push Cullen out of the deputy leadership, deliver the last Labour budget as Finance Minister, and let Helen take the hit as leader going into the next election. He’d be bloody insane to force it before then.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Goff problem is he will have to team up with a left wing 2IC to get the numbers in a left dominated caucus and caucus won’t dump HC unless things are really desperate. He’s really in a catch 22 situation because he has to appeal to the left to win the leadership but in doing this he will alienate the electorate. The other side of the coin is that the “consort”and her fellow travelers have no life skills outside politics and could well be encouraged to accept a naughty right wing friend of Roger Douglas as leader if it meant they didn’t have join the dole queue-sorry sickness benefit!
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
“if unprompted”
Oh please mate, if anyone disagrees with the Labour=Stalin line here they are always accused of “taking orders from the 9th floor” or whatever.
And now if they deny it it is porof they are guilty?
You were born to late Krazy, you would have fittted in well as wicthfinder general.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Fred said “Does anyone know where the original Mike Moore article is?”
Here you go Fred: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/466/story.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10460368
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
DPF: I’m not questioning your motives. I already have a good idea of what they are. What I am doing is going to those motives in an attempt to understand your position. This is not “disrupting” the debate but an attempt to further the debate by identifying its (often deliberately set) parameters. If you are going to pitch your blog as a forum for debate you’re going to have to live with that. Or do we all only talk on your terms my little Ceaser?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
DPF: I’m not questioning your motives. I already have a good idea of what they are. What I am doing is going to those motives in an attempt to understand your position. This is not “disrupting” the debate but an attempt to further the debate by identifying its (often deliberately set) parameters, as is my focus on the rhetorical tropes you and other posters use. If you are going to pitch your blog as an open forum for debate you’re going to have to live with that. Or do we all only talk on your terms little Caesar?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
“You were born to late Krazy, you would have fittted in well as wicthfinder general.”
Whaddya mean too late? We have more than enough of ‘em to keep KK busy for years.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
With reference to DPF’s “cheap unworthy jibe” comment to CharlotteM @7.21 am
What is cheap or unworthy about discussing an issue relating to the Prime Ministers ethics?
Vote:If a lesbian, she is obviously not the happily married heterosexual that she pretends to be.
This allegation has been in print media for over three years and she has neither sued nor refuted it.
Is this not a worthy matter of public interest?
Why doesn’t the MSM actually ask the question of either Ms Clark or Ms Tizard.
August 30th, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Yes the debate here is indeed on my terms. But I’m very reasonable with them.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Robinson, a smart arse insult like that would have earnt you a month long ban on my blog. What on earth gives you the idea that you can sling shit at someone in his own home? Go away and learn some manners.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Sorry about that David – a bad day at the office coupled with the desire to make a smartarse (it’s one word fink) reference to Curia might’ve made me seem a little rude. That said, I believe you were the first to personalise the game with that “brain cell” comment.
Adolf: Don’t kid youself mate – nobody would notice if they were banned from your blog or not. Honestly? I didn’t even know you had one.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Robinson, well there you go. Not only a fuckwit but an insular fuckwit. BTW, I’m not your mate. Learn to be civil.
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Good call Marc
I have thought similar.
All the talk but no denials.
The people of New Zealand have a right to know just like Rudd’s misdeamenours.
Vote:Is it true or false????
This is the most senior person in the country and she happily pronounced on Rudd and co and said visiting strip clubs was not acceptable for persons in responsibility – the same rule applies to her.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Interesting assumption that National’s polling would win the election.
National won’t get over 50%, and ACT alone won’t get them the govt they need. They need another coalition partner, and there isn’t an obvious one.
Labour could still get back. I think the right needs to focus a bit more on what it takes to get power, not just on their poll results.
I think Key knows this, he is carefully cultivating relationships with third parties. But if we assume that:
– Winston First aren’t back in
– Disunited Future are back, but small
How do things play out then?
Seems to me that National will need the Maori party or the Greens. Can it be done?
Vote:August 30th, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Hon Phil Goff
Minister of Justice
Media Statement 18 November 2003
Police Complaints investigators appointed.
The appointment of an investigation team will enhance the independence of Police Complaints Authority’s work, Justice Minister Phil Goff said today.
The Complaints Authority has previously relied on police conducting the investigations with the Authority exercising oversight.
Mr Goff announced that former Detective Inspector Norman Cook, former Canadian Inspector Bob Grinstead and former London Detective Inspector Phillip Shepard would join the Authority at the end of November under former Police Assistant Commissioner Allan Galbraith……
“However it is vital for public confidence in the Authority, and in police accountability, that investigations and findings are seen to be independent of serving police personnel.
Mr Goff said the investigation team would initially look into the most serious complaints, with the scope of its work broadening as they built up expertise and its numbers increase.
Sounds great. Did this ever happen?
Vote:August 31st, 2007 at 7:08 am
“that would have earnt you a month long ban on my blog”
Which is why it remains such a thriving community Mr Adolf?
Vote:August 31st, 2007 at 7:14 am
Marc said:
This allegation has been in print media for over three years and she has neither sued nor refuted it.
Could we have references or links please Marc.
Vote:David gets queasy unless you back up allegations like this.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:18 am
Ohhhhh… “Fuckwit” – jeez Fink you’re really hitting your game with that one. And, um, I’m, pretty sure that visiting you wee blog isn’t a prerequisite for claiming a broad world view.
By the way I was using “mate” ironically (geddit? Irony?) – “I’m not your mate” makes you sound like a frightened school-kid trying to sound tough.
Vote:August 31st, 2007 at 9:59 pm
Adolph: “What on earth gives you the idea that you can sling shit at someone in his own home?”
Err, I don’t think a public comment zone is quite the same as one’s own home.
Vote: