Impacts of Boundary Changes
September 26th, 2007 at 7:08 am by David FarrarClaire Trevett in the NZ Herald has a good article on the impact of the boundary changes. A summary is:
- Hamilton East and West now better for Labour
- Taupo and Rotorua better for National and very winnable
- West Coast-Tasman better for National and highly marginal
- New Botany seat will go to National
- Manurewa and Manukau East become safer forLabour
- Port Hills becomes a safe urban Labour seat
- Rangitata becomes more provincial than rural, helping Labour
Last election National got 2% less party vote than Labour. If it maintains its current poll lead of over 10% then seats which were not marginal may become competitive, such as Hamilton West despite the less favourable boundaries.
No tag for this post.
September 26th, 2007 at 7:56 am
The next election will be a landslide victory for National. Adjustments to the boundaries seem to be assisting National even more.
Privately Labour will be fuming that they have been unable to influence the boundary adjustments to the extent that marginal seats will be retained / won by Labour.
On top of all this the swing against this tired and corrupt government will mean seats like otaki will go to National. The country will be painted in a sea of blue with the odd cancer of red in some metropolitian areas.
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 8:37 am
I have to agree Monty, I think National will win, but Rangitata will be interesting. I was visiting family there and the Labour candidate Julian Blanchard is very impressive. Jo Goodhew is very out of touch according to my family and they voted for her! When I was there a letter to the Timaru Herald slammed her links to the Brethren and her reply was feeble.
The boundary changes in Timaru miss out all the big National booths. If Blanchard puts up a good showing in Ashburton he will go close. The conservative area of Ashburton will like Blanchard.
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 8:47 am
Her comments on Rotorua and Taupo were pretty cautious because on paper they are now both National seats. And in Rotorua’s case Mrs Chadwick has no empathy with the new part of Rotorua save for Makatea and I assume she will be doing some work there.
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 11:06 am
Tim are you trying to tell me that there are people out there that voted for that socialist busy body Chadwick. They must have rocks in their heads in that part of the country, she gives me the creeps!!.
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Google have a page with some tools for the Australian Election at http://www.google.com.au/election2007/ – does any know if there is anything simlar planned at google.co.nz ?
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
Yes well she did lose a lot of ground in 2005 and at one point in the evening she conceded the seat only to be saved at the last minute by Kawerau. But the new boundary adjustments were quite bad for her with National gaining at least 1000 votes and quite possibly more. Indeed I have heard of an estimate that the seat has a paper majority of 1800 to National. But my own conservative calculation has it around 100 to National.
Vote:September 26th, 2007 at 9:24 pm
Anyone who thinks this upcoming election will be a landslide is dreaming.
I surprised Rimutaka doesn’t appear on the radar, it was very close at the last election for the party vote – a decent Nat candidate could win it as Labour are looking to run a ring-in from Northland.
Vote:September 27th, 2007 at 4:23 am
I think it could go either way at the moment. Consider the zombie element.
1. Helen Clark is undead. A good prime minister, but ruling from the grave nonetheless.
2. John Key looks alarmlingly like he is about to die himself. That’s a really unhealthy pallor he has going on. This qualifies him for prime minister-ship.
3. Unfortunately John Key would be an EVIL zombie prime minister. This would be an unprecendented development. National appears to already be laying the groundwork to restrict the poor’s access to anti-zombie medicines and as everyone knows evil zombies only become stronger as you add more of them.
As a country of evil zombies we would certainly maintain a much stronger foothold in the world’s economy whilst staying on good terms with our neighbours (Australians have no brains to eat) – but is being a zombie nation a price we’re ready to pay?
Vote:September 28th, 2007 at 9:29 am
George Hawkins
Manurewa electorate safer for Labour
yaaaaaarh
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