Impacts of Boundary Changes
Claire Trevett in the NZ Herald has a good article on the impact of the boundary changes. A summary is:
- Hamilton East and West now better for Labour
- Taupo and Rotorua better for National and very winnable
- West Coast-Tasman better for National and highly marginal
- New Botany seat will go to National
- Manurewa and Manukau East become safer forLabour
- Port Hills becomes a safe urban Labour seat
- Rangitata becomes more provincial than rural, helping Labour
Last election National got 2% less party vote than Labour. If it maintains its current poll lead of over 10% then seats which were not marginal may become competitive, such as Hamilton West despite the less favourable boundaries.