The Reshuffle
October 30th, 2007 at 4:08 pm by David FarrarOkay, a final look at who may be going where in tomorrow’s reshuffle. This, is of course, speculation as Helen doesn’t tend to consult widely on what to do – so like the MSM it is based on general chit chat amongst MPs and journos.
Off the Front Bench
Steve Maharey – 100% likely, possibly time delayed
Trevor Mallard – 80% likely I would say. In theory he could be demoted three places and still stay on the front bench but to do so would invite considerable criticism. Will be hard to see how he can hold Sport after punching some, but maybe his passion for it will counter that. Ironically I think he generally (putting aside the stadium) does a bloody good job with Sport. He’s a pretty useful Associate Finance Minister also, but that may go elsewhere to start blooding up Cullen replacements.
Jim Anderton – 15% likely. Some media have said he has or will be asked to go to the second row to allow more fresh faces. But Jim isn’t generally big on standing aside fro others and the fact Maharey and Mallard are making room makes this less necessary. Will be a big win for Clark if she does persuade him.
Parekura Horomia – should be dropped on performance grounds but won’t be as no Maori MP on the front bench looks bad. 3% chance.
Onto the Front Bench
Mark Burton – 0.1% chance. More likely to get demoted down the ranks.
Ruth Dyson – 15% chance. Unlikely but not impossible.
Chris Carter – 50% chance. Carter is one of the more politically smart Ministers and has a reasonable chance of picking up one of the two major portfolios up for grabs – Education and Social Development. If I had to pick I’d say might get Education and that may require him to go onto the front bench. Is a useful debater also. The big negative may be the Court over turning his Whangamata marina decision, but if he loses Conservation less of an issue.
Rick Barker – 0.2% chance of front bench. Likely to have a few people leapfrog ahead of him.
Lianne Dalziel – 25% chance. Doing pretty well in her portfolios. The sacking for lying may still make back to the front bench too big a call.
Damien O’Connor – everyone knows will lose Corrections. So o.1% chance of making front bench. But might not change his ranking.
David Cunliffe – 50% chance. In policy terms Cunliffe has been highly successful. He has handled the minefield of Immigration well and seen a new law introduced which his predecessors never managed to get done, with widespread support. Also well regarded for achievements in Comms. Not seen as a hugely vigorous verbal brawler which is useful to have on front bench, so while he will be promoted, maybe not all the way to front bench.
David Parker – 45% chance. Not done as well in policy terms as Cunliffe, but is finally making some progress with climate change. Has a good brain on him and well liked. A pretty safe pair of hands for a larger portfolio.
Nanaia Mahuta – 10% chance. Has improved performance, but a fair way off handling a large portfolio or the front bench.
Clayton Cosgrove – 30% chance. Has been superbly effective at beating up on real estate agents and boy racers. Has advanced political skills and a reasonable verbal brawler which could help in debates. But probably seen to still need to prove himself in a hard area like Corrections before they let onto front bench.
Into Cabinet
With Maharey going Cabinet is down to 18 with two vacancies. If Clark is bold she would dump say Burton and Barker to allow four new Cabinet Ministers, but such boldness is uncharacteristic.
Only one of the six Ministers outside Cabinet might get promoted – Luamanuvao Winnie Laban, but I suspect only possible if there are more than two vacancies.
Dover Samuels is probably standing down as a Minister outside Cabinet so room for three to join the Ministry, but only two to Cabinet.
Tim Barnett - should have been a Minister ages ago, but assumption is he is retiring next election so will stay Senior Whip.
Darren Hughes – 15% chance. Fairly popular with his colleagues, but less so since he became Whip. Is likely to be a fairly safe politically astute pair of hands, but probably see as too early for him this time.
David Benson-Pope – 0.00000000% chance
Steve Chadwick – 30% chance. Has done her time and been a fairly good Select Committee Chair. Unlikely to even hold a major portfolio but hs potential to be a useful non front bench Minister. Fairly well respected.
Charles Chauvel – 25% chance. If Labour is looking long term, then they would go with Chauvel as he is definitely potential front bench material one day. A long history with Labour and politics, but also legal experience which is in short supply. Against him though is having only been in a year or so. Also making him a Minister might be seen to be interfering in the Wellington Central selection contest.
Mark Gosche – 10% chance. Was an okay Minister last time and only stepped down due to family issues. A dark horse should he want to step back up.
Shane Jones – 95% chance. Dover is specifically standing aside for him. He has commercial and governance experience in loads. Might pick up Comms if Cunliffe has to give it up for other portfolios. But will get more than just that. Also expect an Associate for Maori Affairs as he is eventual successor there.
Maryan Street – 90% chance. Maryan has excelled out of the media view as an effective MP, who can work with other parties, do deals, improve bills etc. A former party president who is well connected. Has the capability to take on a major portfolio, but probably not immediately.
Tags: Labour
October 30th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
<p>David, what’s your methodology for the percentages?</p>
[DPF: Oh it is just a device to show how likely I think something is. I could use a scale such as highly likely, very likely, probable, possible, but I think using percentages shows people more explicitly how I comparatively rank the chances. People can have fun tomorrow critquing how well I did or didn't do. Of course the real fun is if others make predictions and see who gets closest]
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
Yeah, can’t you use medians?
[DPF: lolrmao]
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
I’ll tell you what his methodology is, Tane. Based on your question, I would say that the chances of you making a useful comment today is .0002%. There is a corresponding 99.9998% chance that you will be just as stupid tomorrow.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
Milo: call of the century.
Although 11 minutes after the fact.
(Tane did it in seven!)
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:43 pm
Glad you brought up the medians – did you see even National/DPF’s figures for Joanna Average were based on a shoddy miscalculation by Bill English’s office? And to think, this man wants to manage our economy…
[DPF: They were not my figures. I actually spotted the same error around a week before Cullen did thank you very much. But considering Cullen made a bigger blunder on Australian tax rates, I would be cautious about claiming such errors makes you ineligible to be Finance Minister]
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Tane, Joanna Average doesnt give a toss about medians, they vote with their feet. 600 a week and counting…..
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
Tane
It could be worse, the percentage of people paying the rich tax could be based on the number of people working and not the working age population.
I guess you will justify that one because it’s in keeping with your world view… but use average salary for comparison.. how terrible, some meaingless point on a line suits your position better so use that.
You are very funny Tane, are you for real ? Do you really live in a world where you can sleep at night defending all the hiddeous deeds Labour do while spitting tacks at small beer like thins ?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:50 pm
bwaklile – there’s net immigration.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
and what’s National’s record on wages? – i feel a link coming on… http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?cat=37
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
burt – Bill English wants to Finance Minister but he can’t even calculate inflation adjustments correctly (DPF can appearently (appearently before the rress release came out) but he will pretend he doesn’t notice Bil”s mistakes)… that’s a signifcant issue…
… also Jonna average’s real after tax income was up faster under Labour than National…
… also a median is a better measure of thetypical New Zealander’s experience and that rise is even faster under Laobur than National….
… and that is a big deal.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Sam
The real isssue is not what has happened to the median, it’s how certain groups have moved in relation to the median.
CEO’s, PM’s, Cabinet ministers etc have moved way out of proportion to the movement of the median. Labour govt MP’s are behaving like bad nasty naughty right wing nasty naughty people and getting pay rises well above the increase experienced by the median. All you seem to care about is the general shift and not the disparity this govt has created.
You are a sad example of a Labour apologist.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
Sam
How has the median wage moved in relation to the price of a house, the price of a litre of petrol or a litre of milk. 8 years of Labour govt and I can see it now – it’s the failed policies of the past right ?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Why has Helen Clark made statements which may be prejudicial to the recent ‘terrorist’ arrests?
Vote:Why have the Greens said it is about Helen having a go at the Maori Party?
Why does she appear to have information about the kinds of charges the police may lay, if she had or has had nothing to do with the arrests?
Also why is this re-shuffle apparently happening under the cover of darkness?
Why aren’t our friends on the left more excited about it?
October 30th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Sam
Just incase it’s not obvious what I would like you to comment on.
How is the relativity of the PM’s salary to an average house price in 1999 vs now and how is the relativity of the median income to the average house price in 1999 vs now.
I’m just guessing one has kept up pretty well and the other is appauling. So yes the median may have gone up a little faster under Labour than it did in the 9 years prior to Labour – but so have many many things.
The question is how did the increases track against the cost of the things we spend our money on under National compared to the same under Labour.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
burt – you can’t do maths
- the average had increased less than the median, what does that mean? it means there is not a very rapid increase in the few people on top incomes dragging the income up faster than the median but in fact the opposite is happening
- everyone’s incomes are growing faster under Laobur than National and those on midlde incomes are experiencing the fastest growth.
in sum, disparity (which grew under National as the average and top quartiles outstripped the meidan in income growth) is shrinking under Labour.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
burt:
Labour isn’t perfect – no far from it. I;m just far more scared by the prospect of the cadre of 1990s far-right neoliberal iedealogues that sit behind John Key ever running the country. Cosy business deals/selling SOE to mates at bargain basement prices, hidden by the self-serving rhetoric of “market efficiency”, Slashing benefits, smashing the unions. No thanks. Until National leave this kind of ugly, elitist crony capitalist in its shameful past, it has no chance of regaining the treasury benches. Now they don’t have long to learn these lessons, for if they lose the next election can the National party survive another term in the political wilderness. Think about it – 12 whole years. Think about the kind of bitter disillusionment and devision must that foster?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:10 pm
Masterful thread jack.
Anybody want to comment on the topic? I feel a bit sorry for Damien O’Connor, he seemed OK. Why is he getting the knife?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Typical eh – both Tane and Sam have waltzed straight in and thread-jacked within the first nine posts (Tane #5, Sam #9, with the obligatory link to The Average) – stick to the topic boys, stick to the topic!
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
burt – “So yes the median may have gone up a little faster under Labour than it did in the 9 years prior to Labour – but so have many many things.
The question is how did the increases track against the cost of the things we spend our money on under National compared to the same under Labour.”
god you’re stupid. the figures we are discussing are inflation-adjusted…. that means the change in the ‘cost of things’ is already taken into account when producing the income figures. And the figures show incomes are going up a lot faster under Labour than National, that the biggest winners in thes are those on middle incomes, and that Bill Enlgish can’t do basic sums.
Labour doesn’t set MP’s salaries, the Renumeration Board (or whatever its called) does – and you’ll find that every party votes for it every time… why, because its obviosuly important for a democracy to function that a salary is paid to MPs that is sufficent to attract talented people, if the issue is poltiicised by parties not voting for it it will become a stupid race to the bottom until MPs aren’t paid and only the rich can afford to be MPs.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Oooh. Where’s Tane to call out the conspiracy theory, and point out that roger doesn’t actually have the insider information he is claiming to have, and has no idea how things actually work in the National party?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
PaulL – perhaps we could start with Graeme Burton, add Liam Ashley, a dash of Barry Matthews, a hint of corruption, neatly wrapped up in air tickets to France in the company of a suspended Corrections Officer. Goodness, with a pedigree like that, why isn’t he a candidate for the leadership??!!
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
Sam
Yes I’m stupid enough to know that housing is less affordable today then it was in 1999. So Mr have all the answers… How can it be ? How can it be that housing is less affordable today than it was 8 years ago when according to Dr. Sam salaries have been increasing faster than inflation…
Please explain – I’m stupid remember – stupid enough to not have all the partisan head-nodding agreement like your mates have born into them.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:15 pm
Sam.
Why don’t you ask what John Key does with his salary?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
What is really interesting, for me, is why we don’t have these threads on the Shadow Cabinet prior to their reshuffles. Perhaps its because they are not planned as well!
However, I do agree with the overall assessment in terms of who is likely to get promoted, barring Mallard.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
Will all the deck chairs on the new front deck of the Titanic have life jackets or will they be issued to long term rankings only ??
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
I think we did have a thread like this before the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle. And DPF was pretty accurate in predictions. Any on the left care to put their own predictions, and we’ll see whether DPF actually has the ability to predict what might go on in the Labour party?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:27 pm
Sam and Tane will have to check with Irish Bill to see what their opinions are allowed to be today!
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Also, as the Titanic has such a list to the left and is clearly taking on more water than its pumps can handle will the deck chairs be screwed down to the deck ??
I think old First Mate Cullen should be given shore leave and Able Sailor Cosgrove given a promotion instead.
The new Bosun instead of Mallard could be Junior Seaman Shane Jones
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
DB-P could be renamed seaman stains !
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 5:38 pm
don’t be too hard on Tane, my first thought was to wonder how (and why) DPF was picking a ~30% chance of the front bench increasing in number by 1 minister…
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
Graeme – perhaps if Helen demotes Parekura, there’ll be room for one extra!
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Will the reshuffle be from a worn pack, as the cupboard lots pretty bare , but then again I don’t expect the dealer to be dealing from the top , great game cards , especially the game red doom ? oh what fun for all .
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
DPF, are you saying that Horomia will stay for one reason. Because he is a Maori and the only Maori on the front bench?
So are demotions ( or lack thereof) race based now?
[DPF: I think that is the major factor. I also think that no one could claim having all five current and former Labour Maori Electorate MPs in the Executive is on merit.]
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
This much better than the speculation we have come to expect from the Leftie Trolls.
Who is really controls the National Party?
Exclusive Brethren – 100% chance
Vote:Business Round Table – 100% chance
Scrooge McDuck 201% chance
Wal Footrot’s neighbours, I cant recall their name just now… THE MURPHYS!! – 150%
As yet unidentified bully-boy owners of capital – 4000%
October 30th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Perhaps the question burt and SD should ask is “are house prices included in the CPI”.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
dave said “DPF, are you saying that Horomia will stay for one reason. Because he is a Maori and the only Maori on the front bench?
So are demotions ( or lack thereof) race based now?”
Using that logic, maybe there’s a case to say that not to promote Darren Hughes to the front bench would leave Labour short of a ginga!
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
You can never be too short of gingas.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
RAOTFLOL…. nome and toms have given their secret rehearsals a big push. just as well, their national tour is almost ready. i want tickets
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Interesting predictions DPF. Have said it before: the Labour talent pool is puddle deep… and sinking a page of A4 therein would be a difficult task.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 8:22 pm
So are demotions ( or lack thereof) race based now?”
Definitely not. Helen has decreed that there is no “institutionalised system of rascism” here. Eg. there are no maori quotas, no maori electorate, etc etc.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
DPF, here is a number for you.
Vote:Effectiveness of new moderation team and demerit point system stopping Tane and co thread jacking 0%
October 30th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
“Ironically I think he generally (putting aside the stadium) does a bloody good job with Sport”
Based on what? He has completely fucked grassroots sport, SPARC is accountable to no-one, and all he does is swan around on junkets. He’s a fucking disgrace.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
Buggerlugs
I can’t wait to see if he doing the Karapoti Classic again next year, if I see him perving at the girls in lycra I’ll just punch him in the face to defend their honour.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Same goes for around Taupo. Saw him having a really good perv at some mighty nice bodies in lycra last year…. If I see it again I can smash him in the face to defend their honour and the PM will be pleased with me
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
Who is this Tane person? Pops up here and there like a jack in the box.
Vote:The subject was reshuffle. It is amazing how many people read this person’s comments and bite.
This person is could be a shit stirring communist that could be paid by the gummint to just wind us up.
Don’t reply to the possible mongrel, we are better without this person threadjacking on every new topic.
You suck big time Tane
October 30th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Hopefully Helen Clark will think outside the square and appoint Panty Slut Boy as Labour’s new chief whip. He’s reputed to be well-qualified for the job. What odds do Tane, Sam Dixon and Phillip John/Roger Nome put on that happening?
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 11:15 pm
SPC, the price of building a new house is included in the CPI but not the price of buying the land (as land is generally an appreciating asset). The price of secondhand houses is not taken into account at all. So rapidly increasing house prices have less effect on the CPI than you might think.
Labour has been too gutless to fix the high marginal tax rates and ineffective law dealing with the sale of land, which has helped drive house prices so high. Rental properties can reduce your tax in the short term and be sold for a tax free gain in the longer term.
Vote:October 30th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
Yes, I sort of guessed that there could not have been any factoring in.
So essentially there is no allowance for appreciating asset costs – land or second hand property.
This means that while incomes are rising faster than costs of living, there is an increasing inability to afford housing ownership amonst those yet to do so. This means that we now have a two tiered society, on the one hand an increasing sense of asset wealth and on the other an inability to afford what was commonplace in an earlier time.
Ironically amongst some of those unable to own a house are those who never expected to be able to (never aspired to) and who are benefitting from employment and rising pay.
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 7:43 am
Oh – how appropriate……………
Tomorrow is all saints day, but today is halloween.
Halloween and Helen and Goblins and Witches………….why – they all seem to go together so well dont you think.
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 7:44 am
Obviously the 9th Floor has been talking to the media – lead story on the Herald website is “Hodgson faces axe as Health Minister”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10473103
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 7:52 am
From that herald story ” The Justice and Law and Order area is in for a shake-up Annette King is tipped to be given a super-justice role with other ministers answering to her.”
The justice system is in an awful mess and the “super -justice ” Ms King is hardly the person to correct the many failings . Look at her previous portfolio’s including Health ? What a mess , why bother with a reshuffle Helen as you are going out the door forever .
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 8:27 am
“What a mess , why bother with a reshuffle Helen as you are going out the door forever.”
Yes I must say, she’s putting on a brave face encountering the enevitable.
More likely a desperate face to match desperate times.
I’m just waiting for her to speak the death knell,,
“Bugger the polls.”
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 8:39 am
Inventory2 said at 6:01pm last night
“Graeme – perhaps if Helen demotes Parekura, there’ll be room for one extra!”
HEH If Parakura is taken from cabinet there would be room for 3 extra. you would just need to find the chairs for them.
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 9:15 am
Maybe Parekura will get Associate Health – then he could be the frontperson for the childhood obesity campaign!
Vote:October 31st, 2007 at 10:01 am
‘Maybe Parekura will get Associate Health – then he could be the frontperson for the childhood obesity campaign!’
Unbelieveably, this would be consistent with hua Huata gaining a position with a Sth Akld youth council. after she swindled all the money from the kids.
There will be no surprises about Parekura…. good to know it’ll only be from the shadow.
Vote: