I’ll cover the full Herald Digipoll in my normal monthly summary, along with other polls this month. But I did want to explore the gaps in sentiment between Auckland and the rest of NZ.
In terms of party vote, the National to Labour gap is a massive 22% in Auckland while a “mere” 9% elsewhere.
Also the Greens are at 4.7% outside Auckland but only 0.9% in Auckland.
In fact if one looks at voting blocs, you have:
Centre-Right: 57.0% Auckland vs 49.7% rest of NZ
Centre: 7.0% vs 4.7%
Centre-Left: 34.3% vs 45.3%
So the CR to CL gap is 23% in Auckland and 4% in the rest of NZ.
If Labour and Greens can regain ground in Auckland, the election is competitive. If they can not, then it is hard to see how one can win with support in Auckland so low.
So expect to see a lot more focus on Auckland I predict.Tags: Polls