Auckland vs NZ
November 28th, 2007 at 7:10 am by David FarrarI’ll cover the full Herald Digipoll in my normal monthly summary, along with other polls this month. But I did want to explore the gaps in sentiment between Auckland and the rest of NZ.
In terms of party vote, the National to Labour gap is a massive 22% in Auckland while a “mere” 9% elsewhere.
Also the Greens are at 4.7% outside Auckland but only 0.9% in Auckland.
In fact if one looks at voting blocs, you have:
Centre-Right: 57.0% Auckland vs 49.7% rest of NZ
Centre: 7.0% vs 4.7%
Centre-Left: 34.3% vs 45.3%
So the CR to CL gap is 23% in Auckland and 4% in the rest of NZ.
If Labour and Greens can regain ground in Auckland, the election is competitive. If they can not, then it is hard to see how one can win with support in Auckland so low.
So expect to see a lot more focus on Auckland I predict.
Related posts:
- The final Dispatch from Helengrad?
- Poll Demographics
- Is it all over?
- Another 5% result for the Greens
November 28th, 2007 at 7:16 am
I think many Aucklanders have always bent to the left and perhaps thanks to the population basis more than anything else, so it’s nice to see them wake up. On a side note, I enjoyed John Key’s dvd, however I think he needs to toughen up a little, no, not become a mongrel like his opposite, just it’s about time to show some more depth.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:22 am
At the moment the boat nationwide is going out in a big way.
Vote:There is a weariness to this government plus the “death row arrogance” of Labour, especially the politicisation of the Civil Service.
A characteristic of a dying government is its arrogance and its unwillingness to pull that back.
November 28th, 2007 at 7:27 am
I guess Auckland also has the best experience of leftist politicians and what they actually deliver.
When you spend nearly two hours a day sitting in a traffic jam, it must gall just a little to be lectured about the virtues of buslanes and light rail?
Auckland is a classic example of where the left actually managed to get and maintain influence – and arent we all proud of our “international city” , when the power may stay on, where there might be enough water, and where the new stadium might be on time, even if you won’t be for the big game because there’s no parking…
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:32 am
Hi all
Maybe the fat ballot boxes in South Auckland are slimming down. I will beleive this when I see it.
Hope the trend continues.
Regards
Vote:Peter Bickle
November 28th, 2007 at 7:32 am
Also Auckland is served by a truly independent daily Newspaper.
The rest of us are served a daily diet from Fairfax owned rags, which at times appear to be the propoganda arm of the Labour party!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:40 am
I think Peter’s advice is sound – need to look very closely at what is going on in South Auckland. If Labour is borrowing Democrat tactics – and clearly they are, then there will be coercion, use of churches to push the party message, busing, and false ballots galore down there.
TPF was intimately involved in the “get out the vote” amongst the PI community – wonder what he will say in his trial?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:46 am
It may simple be that Auckland is larger and relatively cohesive so the message has got through. It should percolate throughout the whole country.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:47 am
“Maybe the fat ballot boxes in South Auckland are slimming down.”
You can bet your bottom dollar that would be the only thing slimming down in that region of the country . Oh well TPF will loose some blubber while in a cell ? Maybe ?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:02 am
This is a fascinating poll result. Coming on the back of their flat result in the Australian election the drop off in Green support here must be concerning for that Party. But unlike Australia, Green support here doesn’t seem to be shifting to Labour. Maybe it is, but the trend is being masked by moves elsewhere. Are the less well off starting to realise that the impact of the Government’s proposed climate change policy response will impact heaviest on them? No more cheap Japanese imports, higher petrol and diesel costs and higher power. And, of course, when NZ industry moves offshore having been rendered uncompeitive because NZ has moved ahead of the pack, who is going to lose their jobs?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:06 am
I think the Herald article has something to do with it, as does KevOB’s point that ideas percolate faster in cities… and the current ‘idea’ is the realization that Labour is ‘at the point of diminishing returns’.
It would be interesting to see an urban versus rural breakout rather than just an ‘Auckland’ versus ‘Other’ breakout. That’d probably require a larger sample size though.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:14 am
The rural vote has pretty much always sided with the Nats. At the last election it was only when the urban results came in that labour pulled ahead.
If this is the trend in Auckland, Labour has to be worried.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:29 am
Just a random thought – maybe the Aucland voters are punishing Dear Leader for doing away with the Minister for Auckland Issues. What’s that you say? Oh, the Minister for Auckland Issues was Judith Tizard? Bugger – that blows THAT theory out of the water!!!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:31 am
The Election will be won or lost in South Auckland. Again.
Vote:Church leaders must be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of all that money Labour undoubtably will throw at them.
November 28th, 2007 at 8:35 am
The collapse of the Greens in Auckland is what interests me the most. I think people can see green policies are not well thought through, they are based on bad science, and the Green Party is largely made up of old hippies who are in late middle age with bad hair and silly clothes.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:40 am
The New Zealand, everyday increasingly the mouthpiece of the National Party, produces a skewed poll.
Surprise Surprise.
[DPF: Tom - I'd prefer you don't defame organisations on my blog. If you had possession of your family brain cell, you would know the Herald has no control over the poll results - the polling company, Digipoll, produces the results. They are a very respected and independent organisation]
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:40 am
The NZ Herald that should have been…
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:45 am
sorry toms, did the labour party IT dept not skew the poll again for you?
Obviously not being paid well enough.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:51 am
deity sounds the warning of Democrat tactics.
Vote:Labour has been using the Democrat blueprint for at least thirty five years and it’s tenure of the Treasury benches has improved over that period from one term, to two terms, to three.
Some of those tactics, alluded to by deity, were revealed in Court electoral petitions in Hunua and Taupo.
Most of their Democrat activities are more obvious should you ever visit Democrat Presidential Libraries or read a Democrat President’s memoirs.
It’s all there.
November 28th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Aw, come on toms – you can do better than that!! And wasn’t it a Labour sympathiser who skewed a poll on the Herald a couple of weeks ago? Oh, and don’t forget the last Roy Morgan poll!!!
http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2007/11/roy-morgan-strikes-again.html
Does two polls in one week constitute a trend?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Interesting poll result — last election all commentators were confident that national was going to win as the first polling booths came in. However the big polling booths in South Auckland managed at the last minute to swing the election Labour’s way. If South Auckland wakes up and turns away from Labour then the government is doomed.
In reply to Capt Crabb the Labour Party may well spend lots of money in South Auckland and put lots of money the church’s way. I don’t actually know if they do or not.
However in my view any church, South Auckland or elsewhere, should think very carefully before supporting Labour. The fundamental stance of the Labour Party right now is anti-Christian. Their hostility to Christian values has been shown time and time again through the legislation they actually promote. They have moved well away from the Labour Party of the 1930s who saw their welfare programme as “applied Christianity”.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Well with fucked up Green tactics like handing out leaflets at traffic lights and holding up placards on how naughty you are for driving a car with only one person in it…. when I had just finished dropping off 2 other people.
Yea.. really made me a fan of the Greens!
I used to take a bus to work once from Henderson to the Uni. It took 90 minutes, there were usually no seats left, cost $13 a day with a concession card and that was years ago. My daughter used to take the train to school. It was late so often the school was making threatening noises and yet it was an unforgivable sin and poor parenting to have them at school too early.
And the Greens slag off at car users……….. fuck… talk about out of touch!!!!!!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:57 am
Angry little lefties aren’t they. A few weeks ago they were singing the praises of Dear Leader and the recovery of the Nation’s arrogant socialist party. But of course this poll could also reflect the fine work of the Herald in exposing the EFB which has a predominantly Auckland readership. Imagine how much the support for the Greens and the left in general will collapse once the whole country wakes up to the corruption of our democracy. On top of that John Key is doing a Nation-wide tour and that will increase his visability and also his rating in the preferred PM stakes.
I also wonder what the next hard hitting Investigate article will be. Usually a big story hits every 6 months or so – and I have a feeling that in Feb we may see a major story be released about some aspect of Labour / or the PM.
Overall as parliament finishes up for the year National have good reason to be optimistic, while the Labour MPs should use the break to polish up their CVs in anticipation of joining the unemployment (unemployable) queues at their local social welfare office.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:59 am
Fascinating… particularly the Geen vote.
Could it be that the Greens are at last being acknowledged as environmental charlatans that they are?
Or perhaps the libertarian lefties simply tiring of being joined at the MMP hip with Labour’s State Controls All style?
Or perhaps the Greens quasi-Communist underbelly is a little too exposed?
So many possibilities … it’s delicious.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:06 am
National should be concentrating on taking the Greens out next election.
Thats the key.
No Greens = No Labor government.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:07 am
David it is a real pity that you do not do more critical analysis of poll data. But as you own a polling company then I guess it is not in your interest to cast doubt on poll results.
Really a ’22% v 9%’ difference between Auckland and the rest of the country? And the Greens only getting 0.9% in Auckland??
Has there ever been a general election result that has had such a large differential between the results in Auckland and the rest of the country? If not what is the largest differential that has been recorded in a general election? Surley answering those questions would give some sort of reality check on the results of this poll.
[DPF: There have been large regional variations in past elections and past polls. In the last election for example Labour led National by 12% in Wellington but trailed by 16% in rural electorates.]
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:10 am
Several people early in the comments have suggested along the lines that `ideas percolate more quickly through the cities’.
Given that rural New Zealand kicked Labour out in 2005, including Cabinet Ministers who only returned to Parliament courtesy of South Auckland and the list.
I think it could be more fairly said that it takes a while for the cities to catch up with the provinces!!!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:18 am
Something touched on above, at the last election it seemed city = red, provinces = blue. on that basis the poll result indicates a truely massive swing to National in Auckand, any idea how big?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:36 am
Somehow I believe that Labour will have a bit of a problem if they try to do deals through the churches in South Auckland, especially if the party that Destiny forms targets the largely Polynesian seats. Pastors will be faced with a choice – support a party of Christians, or support a party led by an agnostic, whose policies have been pretty overtly anti-Christian, as has the rhetoric. They would be wise to dwell on these words:
“Don’t become partners with those who reject God. How can you make a partnership out of right and wrong? That’s not partnership; that’s war. Is light best friends with dark?” 2 Corinthians 6:14 – The Message
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:41 am
pdm – Fair call.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:55 am
a large part of the greens problems in auckland stem from the fact that between elections the green mp’s/leadership avoid the place like the plague..
there are no auckland green mp’s..
and (aside from the public transport’ issue..which is more ideologically..than regionally..driven/focussed..
the greens do not address our/auckland issues..(!)..at all..!
and..we never see them..
(i know..!..go figure..!..)
(we thought we had nandor..but he ‘bailed’/found fatherhood..
at one stage there was a push (from me and others) for him to stand in auckland central..
and for him to ‘work’ auckland..
but that momentum has now well and truly passed..(!).(.eh..?.)
combine that total lack of attention to auckland..
..with a dysfunctional/social/coffee club model of an auckland gren party ‘organisation’..
and you start to see/undertand them now reaping what they have sewn..
(y’know..!..i still think/know auckland is the key to the greens’ sustainabilty..(politics 101..eh..?..)
but i failed dismally in the greens in my ‘time’ there..
to get them to see/change..
(and in some defence of those auckland greens who aren’t just there for the coffee/chat..
it is very dispiriting being part/a sub-branch) of an organisation that ignores you..and your concerns..
except for that time every three years..
when they set those few auckland greens’ sysiphian (fund raising ‘levies’ for every electorate..
and harangue/overwhelm them with ever-extending financial/fundraising ‘final deadlines’..
the auckland greens have also been poorly served by a ‘leader’ who sees the ‘job’ as a stepping-stone to mp-hood..
the way things are going..
his chances don’t look too good..
eh..?
(and never once..!..in all those elections..
where a few greens (man/womanly) strive to handle/cover the large number of auckland electorates..(once again..another sysiphian task..
never have those (smug/well-financed/’members’ of provincial green groups..
ever offered to ‘help’ in auckland..
and hey..!..
ya gotta be gobsmacked by such apparant lack of basic political ‘nous’..eh.?
especially on the part of the green party leadership/m.p.’s..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 9:56 am
I really must work up a lexicon of TomSpeak: First entry –
“Skewed”. Anything I don’t agree with.
“Mouthpiece of the National Party”. Anyone who has the gall to say anything I don’t agree with.
Any more suggestions, folks?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:03 am
IV2 Good call The Nats should be getting into the PI pastors ears reminding them of the antiChristian legislation the Facist Party has enacted.
Prostitution Act
Civil Unions Act
Anti smacking Act.
the best result would be to encourage the PIs to vote for Elle Jeffe and hope the Court case isnt until 09 although I suspect the 9th floor will be heavying the Cheif Justice to have the case heard well before the election.
As regards the polls the Communist Greens have been exposed and will now go into a death spiral along with Luigis lot.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:04 am
Craig, after revisiting Toms’ comments on Taito Philip Field a few days ago, I know he is so detached from reality that one needs to invert every word to make sense of it.
So what he was actually saying was that he is terribly disappointed that the Labour online poll rigging machine was not running, probably because he spent too much time watching Labour-porn on the internets.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Labour of course rely heavily on the Sth Akld vote.
It seems a large part of that reliance is going to be missed next year.
I can’t think of one public appearance by Helen in the polynesian community in this tenure. Some might be able to say the same about her entire time in office.
I think she managed to force herself to Akld for the Samoan who had her power cut.
Polynesians are not a united community but they have always believed in Labour. for good reason that faith has been incredibly shaken. They have been given no incentives what so ever. Of all electorate groups, their historic faithfulness deserves priority. Instead, the PM has shown them her back. She will be reciprocated in 2008.
As for Nandor, his major place of interest is Hamilton. He is in the Hamilton media regularly. Hands on protesting with minority groups on neighbourhood issues. And in all reality, the kind of things Greens should be known for. when you stand for neighbourhoods, that stands for small town values. The Greens know what they’re doing. They’re not going to win a general election to govern, but they can win seats from communities. they’re not going to waste their time and energy buffeting the winds in Akld.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:20 am
As for Nandor smoking in the chamber ?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:21 am
When Chicken Little said that “No Greens = No Labor government.” I think CL forgot what happened last election?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:23 am
“think CL forgot what happened last election?”
who can ever forget Peter Davis giving a skunk a french kiss dear stephen ?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:53 am
According to Wikipedia National narrowly won Auckland in the 2005 election. So it’s not surprising the trend is continuing.
A commentator once said that if you win Auckland you win the country. I can’t see how that can be true given what happen in ’05. Although the ’05 election yield many anomalies i.e. Labour retaining power.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 10:57 am
All i’m saying is thank god Auckland doesn’t speak for the rest of the country, does anyone know the Auckland sample size?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Apparently it was 1000 eligible voters.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:11 am
hinemau said..(re greens..)
“..they’re not going to waste their time and energy buffeting the winds in Akld..”
(um..!..are you a green..?
i guess i am asking if you are saying this with any semblance of ‘authority.’.?
or if you just plucked it from your nearest available orifice..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:14 am
i’m not sure which s the more distasteful option..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:14 am
I very much doubt the Greens are 0.9% in Auckland. Minor parties’ support nationally is difficult enough to assess. Reduce that sample still further and you have tiny numbers and big fluctuations.
Digipoll surveyed 912 decided voters in NZ. 32 (approx) said they would vote Green. We don’t know how many respondents were in Auckland, but let’s say 200. They found 2 Green voters. On another day they might find 5. Or none!
A poll of 912 voters in Auckland only would produce a far more relaible result.
[DPF: If 900 was the national sample, then Auckland would be around 250 to 300. A sample of 250 has a margin of error of 1.2% for a score of 0.9%. So with 95% confidence the support level in Auckland is between 0% and 2.1% if that poll has a regular sample.]
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:15 am
No Philu clown
Just common sense.
Whoar means war.
We know Labour wants war to fully squash dissent.
I should think they’ll get their wish,,,, if they get re elected.
I don’t think so!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:17 am
gee90: They found 2 Green voters. On another day they might find 5. Or none!
Which is probably why no poll like this should be taken seriously until they begin to show a trend and even then they should be treated with skepticism.
There’s only one poll that matters and that’s the one that Labour will be purchasing when they introduce the EFB.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:18 am
I can’t believe it ? All this talk about greens and war , so much for utopias ?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:22 am
I think the “terrorists” raids were a beautiful own goal by Labour.
They successfully discredited the Greens by their association with the Glock carrying “Pacifists”, and became tarnished themselves by the Police’s mismanagement of the affair; resulting in the decimation of their biggest potential coalition partner and a fall-off in their own poll support.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:23 am
“There’s only one poll that matters and that’s the one that Labour will be purchasing when they introduce the EFB.”
But do you agree with Helen that protest numbers aren’t impressive.
she would like to see 5,000 at least.
Not unreasoanable considering the seriousness of the issue.
an issue that transcends the ’81 Spring bok tour.
According to her thinking a protest of close to 10,000 would squash the bill.
This is an issue that should attract that number.
Thats why the govt has ordered soldiers to be trained in crowd control in Wanganui. They know the bill is evil.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:24 am
(sigh..!..)..
pascall..go check the previous election results..
(and that’s the other dumfounding fact..that the green leadership know they have always done badly in auckland..
yet..they do/have done diddly-squat about it..(!)
(i know..!..i know..!..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:28 am
Hopefully the Greens are now being seen as what they truly are, tied at the hip with Labour.
Vote:If you heard Fitzsimmons at the anti EFB march she could have been a Labour mouthpiece. power is corrupting.
November 28th, 2007 at 11:28 am
and how about those righties..!
with their (apparant) fascination/obsessions with gay-sex..?..eh..?
top-ten ‘hits’ on the conservepedia website..
1. Main Page [1,897,388]
2. Homosexuality [1,488,013]
3. Homosexuality and Hepatitis [516,193]
4. Homosexuality and Promiscuity [416,767]
5. Homosexuality and Parasites [387,438]
6. Homosexuality and Gonorrhea [328,045]
7. Homosexuality and Domestic Violence [325,547]
8. Gay Bowel Syndrome [314,076]
9. Homosexuality and Syphilis [262,015]
10. Homosexuality and Mental Health [249,14]..”
(heh-heh..!..eh..?
w.t.f. does that tell us..?..eh..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:30 am
I’d be interested to see breakout by other urban areas. I’d be surprised if National weren’t ahead in Chch, and if Labour weren’t ahead in Wellington. This means that a lot of provincial centres are still Labour, and I’d guess rural is National still.
Of course, making broad statements like I just made based on one area being 45% Labour / 55% National (ignoring minor parties), and another beign 55% / 45% is really making generalisations that aren’t useful to anyone.
I am assuming that John Key is pushing hard on the more centre parties that they need to honour something they mostly promised a couple of elections ago – to form a govt with the largest party. Otherwise these numbers are meaningless – still need coalition partners. I think John Key understands that, and it is where he is spending his time.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:32 am
so..not only do ‘righties’ come complete witha s.o.h. byepass..
they..um..!..have some ‘interesting’ interests..eh..?
and in fact..it could be said..
are down’right’ ‘weird’..)
eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:33 am
Phil – meaning what? Other than that you have way too much time on your hands. What people in the US does has little impact on what the right do in NZ. And remember, there is a world of difference between conservative and other parts of the right.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:36 am
yeah..sure..paul..
(do you speak for all..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 11:47 am
That figure for the Greens – 0.9% in Auckland, 4.7% elsewhere is hugely at odds with all other polls – the 22% gap on Nat vs Lab is also far out of kilter with everything else
– that indicates this poll is severly flawed
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
You keep hoping that Sam!
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
A few days ago there were several comments re National revving up its “blue Green” offering, with one eye to pushing the Greens below 5% and drop-kicking them out of the House.
The Greens only just scraped in in 2005. It’s quite possible for National to build in a strong environmental platform and take away a crucial 0.5% or so of the Greens’ support. Keep them below 5% and Labour loses its ability to form a centre-left coalition.
This NZH poll suggests that’s not an unachievable goal, with the Green’s polling at 3.5%. Sure (i) it’s a small sample size and so the margin of error really affects the Green’s figures, and (ii) their vote will probably rally in an election campaign.
But, will National do it? First, do they have the strategic nous to seize the opportunity? Second, do they have the smarts to execute that strategy?
Unfortunately I think the answers are “No” and “No”. I despair that anything beyond swilling port in stuffed leather armchairs seems beyond National’s election strategy team …
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:28 pm
hinamanu: But do you agree with Helen that protest numbers aren’t impressive.
No, I don’t. I would not be surprised if the vast majority of protesters were garnered from bloggers, friends of bloggers and those of us who have an interest in the situation.
Prior to the Herald taking an interest, for how long was this an issue solely in the province of bloggers? Now that the message is getting out, especially now that the general public is becoming aware of what the problem is and that there are marches out there, I’d expect numbers to be higher.
And growing. It’s only a pity the major newspapers and media jumped onto this issue a number of months too late. (And are now demonised for exposing the truth about this odious legislation by our usual cadre of Lefties)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Reg is right. The Greens are losing all credibility seeing that most of their most visible activist types are out there PROTESTING AGAINST the arrests of the wannabe terrorists.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
Bit off-topic, but picking up on what someone said earlier:
I worked in Auckland for 4 years, and discovered the buses after two years. The buses took 10 minutes longer to get me to and from work, compared to driving. (NOTE: not “hours” longer – ten minutes longer.) The cost of my weekly commuting was HALVED, and I got to read the paper and check out hotties.
My workmates began constructing elaborate arguments about why THEY couldn’t use buses; and basically any excuse would do to justify continuing to take sit in their cars twice a day, getting angrier and angrier about the traffic jams. And blaming the bus lanes, or Mother Hubbard, or “The Asians” or basically anyone else that they decided was inflicting this on them.
My point? basically, Aucklanders are “special”. Just ask them. Of course voting habits are going to be different south of the Bombays…
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:32 pm
philu: pascall..go check the previous election results..
Yes, and? Do you believe that one poll will tell us what the result of an election a year out will be?
Because, I am saying that only one poll – the final one – will tell us who will form the next government.
Oh wait.
You didn’t quite “get” that I was saying one poll is not the determining factor.
There there philu.
(Too much happy baccy maybe?)
…
Affecting the old brain cells there?
…
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Also, the truth is possibly starting to filter through to the public about the fact that all the RICHEST countries are doing the best to meet Kyoto targets, including the evil USA that DIDN’T sign Kyoto, but as long as we remain POOR, with moribund economic growth, we just ain’t gonna cut it.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
I was under the assumption that the Herald Digi Poll was a nationwide poll much like Colmar Brunton sponsored by One News and that the Herald were merely the sponsoring media client paying for the poll. Perhaps David in your monthly anaysis you could address the regional mix in this poll.
Philu
Nice to have you back – you seemed to have gone a bit quiet. Conservapedia is not considered a substantive conservative website by any conservatives here so you are extrapolating the visits to one site on the whole movement. You seem a little obsessed by their obsession! I enjoyed your comments on the Green Party in Auckland – a good mate in Auckland (a former Green) made much the same observations as you.
[DPF: The Herald Digipoll is nationwide, but they break down the results by region.]
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Great stuff Auckland, now if only Chch can wake up a little.
Vote:We kicked the 2021 labour faction out of council so it’s looking good to see the back of these control freaks in 08
November 28th, 2007 at 1:46 pm
gd, I don’t often find myself in disagreement with you but I find it odd you lump the Prostitution Bill and the Civil Union Bill in with the anti-smacking Bill.
The first two don’t force anyone to do or not to do anything. They give greater freedom to some sectors of society. If you believe in freedom then – whether or not you’re comfortable with some people exercising those freedoms – those pieces of legislation are supportable on principle provided there’s no side effects restricting the rights of anyone else (or, as Trevor De Cleene once memorably put it, he had no objection to the legalisation of homosexuality, he just feared that the next move would be to make it compulsory!).
The anti-smacking Bill, on the other hand, imposed unnecessary and heavy-handed sanctions (or at least the possibility of those sanctions being invoked) against parents who wished to decide how best to raise their children. It reduced exisiting freedom unnecessarily, when laws protecting children were already in place.
There’s a difference, surely?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
As someone who’s been involved in the occasional US campaign I’m not sure commenters who are comparing Labour’s tactics, particularly in South Auckland, with those of the Democrats are being entirely fair to the latter party.
To cite but one misunderstanding, a lot of Democratic Party links to churches are with those attended overwhelmingly by African-Americans. Their links date back to JFK, RFK and LBJ, and other Democrats, who fought to improve the lot of black Americans and succeeded in significantly extending their civil rights. And who did so against vehement opposition from within their own party – much moreso than from any Republicans.
More recently Bill Clinton, for all his other foibles, also worked on improving the conditions of the working poor – many of whom are African American. It runs deeper than cynical vote-buying, and has for generations.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Rex, very nicely put (at 1:46). I completely agree.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
As a mainlander – I actually think Chch is doing rather well – in places and I have seen local polling to support that. It is normally not separated out in many results. But I can tell you there is an upswell in support locally in very untraditional areas in chch. I believe National will do very well in Chch next year and that will come as a major shock to many. According to the census Chch and its environs has grown by 60,000 people over the past 5 years…much of the people from this growth doesn’t vote Red…but are overseas expat returnees wanting to live somewhere nice.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Yes National should be very careful when considering the electorate candidate process that will determine who represents the 60,000 in the Selwyn Electorate . Fresh blood – Roger is the man . Be careful John . I hate to ruin the Christmas Party ?
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Rex
My reasoning is that IMHO and from what I observe PIs are pretty conservative people in general and especially those who attend the Churches. It seems to me that they I know the frothers are going to attack me about how do I know etc etc and I say from my observations.
However I bet those pastors are not at all comfortable that ‘their” party has passed these Acts.
The PIs are not unkown to use physical punishment. I few years ago I watched 2 Tongan police wack a young lad with the sticks they carry for stealing a bike and was told at the time that was quite usual and part of the customs.
Hence again IMHO a quiet word could undermine the socialists along with Elle Jeffe standing on a ticket of representing the PIs
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
gd… ah I see, you were referring to the likely outlook of PI voters rather than of yourself. My apologies for the confusion and in that case I agree with you entirely… they certainly will look dimly upon all three Acts.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Actually Rex, I don’t think you have thought through your objection to the Democrat comparison. My understanding is that PI people are fairly strongly influenced by their Churches, and the community is fairly blue collar and until recently (and arguably currently) has faced discrimination.
Labour has assiduously groomed this sector of the electorate from Kirk onwards, Lange in particular played the PI card strongly. Labour activists were heavily involved in the get out the vote campaign, “helping” registrations etc etc
Clark played the PI card crudely but very publicly with that poor woman and her non-payment of the power bill. Brendan sheehan (family “spokesperson”) is trying to parlay that issue into a Parliamentary nomination.
The South Auckland vote won the election for labour.
QED.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Very important, Rex Widerstrom, “the WORKING poor”. Labour certainly doesn’t represent THEM any more. Not only did Bill Clinton do a lot for them, he carried out the sort of tough welfare reform that forced long term beneficiaries back into the workforce – the sort of thing that hard-hearted Republicans or Nationals are accused of WANTING to do, by a Labour Government that is hell bent on “protecting” the “rights” of people to stay on benefits in perpetuity.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:41 pm
pascal ..are you irredemably ‘thick’..?
or do you just like to appear that way..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Phil, considering I am the one writing complete sentences with reasonably accurate punctuation it would seem to me that I’m not the ‘thick’ one.
You’re the one that is too thick to realise we are both saying this one poll will not determine how well the Greens will do come election day.
But keep it up – you’re the one who comes across as the dunce old boy.
Vote:November 28th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
Nice to see the townies waking from their slumber. I predict large bribes for Auckland come 2008, maybe a flash new motorway, more welfare for those in the poverty trap with speacial programs for sth Auckland. Yes, desperate times call for desperate measures.
Vote: