October 2007 Polling Newsletter
The Curia October 2007 Polling Newsletter is out later today. It’s a whopping nine pages and reviews polls in New Zealand and Australia, plus the US, UK and Canada.
It is only available by e-mail and you can go to this subscription page to receive it in your inbox.
The gap between National and Labour has closed from 17% to 9% in just two months.
This new graph shows the projected seats for each “bloc”. It assumes no change in electorate seats.
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Tags: Polls
November 12th, 2007 at 10:17 am
So my read of that graph is that National would need a coalition with at least one party from the centre in order to form govt. Which parties have you grouped as centre DPF? I’m assuming NZF, Maori and United.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:22 am
I can’t wait for the next round of polls after today’s Herald!
November 12th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Yeah, but it would be nice if John Key could create the momentum for himself, instead of having events like this create that momentum for him.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:28 am
PaulL – yes in the full newsletter it says National could govern with ACT and the one United Future seat.
Those three parties are indeed grouped as centre, but on current polling NZF gets no seats.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:31 am
Looks like the “Terror Raids” did the trick for Helen in the short term, but she’ll be severely taxed to try an neutralise the effect of the Heralds exposure
of her anti-democratic tendencies.
Perhaps a “round-up” of EBs or placing Fran O’Sullivan under “house arrest” might be worth the 9th floor considering?
November 12th, 2007 at 10:36 am
Hmmm. Interesting times. I wonder what policies National would need to have in order to form a coalition with the Maori party?
There is some policy overlap around self determination and service delivery as close as possible to the citizen. The Maori party have beliefs in the direction of freedom, and many of their objectives are shared by both left and right, it is just that the right have different means to get to those objectives. I’m not sure whether the Maori party have the depth of thought as yet as to how to best achieve their objectives.
There are some areas of substantial difference, but those areas could probably be put to one side. For example, the question of the Maori seats. It would, however, but a little hypocritical for National to accept support from a party with a substantial overhang whilst arguing against the mechanism by which that overhang exists.
My pick is that National will shortly revist their Maori policy, and in particular will state that the Maori seats should continue to exist so long as Maori continue to choose to be on the Maori roll.
November 12th, 2007 at 10:51 am
It is a rather interesting trend and must be heartening for Labour supporters. I, for one, am looking forward to the November 2007 and December 2007 polling newsletters as the infamous and atrocious EFB finally registers for voters.
Think about it. That front page editorial in every gas station, by every check out. That’s good, isn’t it? It will certainly do it’s bit to bring the truth into the next series of polls.
November 12th, 2007 at 11:04 am
well labour started going up in August, so i dont think the ‘terrorism’ kerfuffle was THE factor that did it. Who the hell knows what the Maori party want to do…
November 12th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Political commentators a few months ago said that is was critical for Helen not to go into an election year behind in the polls. It doesn’t help for Labour Party morale or confidence in the leader.
So with that in mind it’s good to see Labour still on the wrong side of the ledger.
November 12th, 2007 at 11:20 am
“Think about it. That front page editorial in every gas station, by every check out. That’s good, isn’t it?”
I flippin hope so.
November 12th, 2007 at 11:37 am
I wonder how Herald readers will be cancelling their subscriptions today – more than a few I’d imagine.
Why don’t they just publish a headline saying “Party Vote National?” That would be probably just as biased – but more factually accurate…
I guess that factual accuracy is not important for the Herald anymore…
[DPF: Amazing how PP can attack the headline yet not provide any arguments as to why it is wrong. People are dreaming if they think being anti-EFB is the same as being pro-National]
November 12th, 2007 at 11:44 am
Policy Parrot:
I knew before I read your post (silly me for doing so) that you’d be a partisan hack. And true to form, you are. Hint: go to another thread (any number of today’s threads will suffice) and tell us what part of the NZ Herald’s “factual accuracy” has been compromised. If you can’t do this, then STFU.
November 12th, 2007 at 11:47 am
I am elated at the thought of the crisis meeting currently underway on the 9th floor. H1 will be screaming, Cullen will be attacking the Herald, Smarmy no longer cares, Mallard is blaming Tau.
It is all going to fall apart from here. I wonder if support from Winston can now be counted upon because it is now a mainstream issue. Is Winston going to go out on the basis of being the leader of a party that suported the corruption of democracy. And within the ranks of Labour – can Helen depend upon no MP crosing the floor on this?
I believe that the next caucas meeting will debate the merits of this bill and whether self preservation is more important than democracy. Labour will be very worried that this is now a mainstream issue. Their whole objective was to keep this under the radar. They have failed.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
A quick glance at the “your comments” section of the Herald makes fascinationg reading. Given that this section of the Herald usually consists of a parade of distorted and ignorant anti-Labour blatherings from the barely coherent the number of people who are strongly criticising the Herald indicates the paper has over-played its hand.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Good point, Policy Parrot. I guess those ardent rightists at the Human Rights commission are part of this conspiracy as well. Oh, and Nicky Hagar. And the Law Society.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
Policy Parrot Parrots Policy! (Try thinking for yourself mate!)
November 12th, 2007 at 12:31 pm
I think its a bit optimistic to think that the EFB or Audrey’s story will have much of an impact – while issues like the anti-smacking bill had a direct effect on families all over the country the EFB only really impacts the
November 12th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Monty:
” Is Winston going to go out on the basis of being the leader of a party that suported the corruption of democracy. ”
Hopefully enough RSA Members will remember what they fought for and will treat Winston and New Zealand First in the way he and his party deserves.
November 12th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Policy Parrot, it appears those evil right wingers at Kiwiblogblog are also against the Bill.
http://kiwiblogblog.wordpress.com/2007/11/12/nat-research-unit-hard-at-work/#respond
Bastards trying to elect National wherever you go.
November 12th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Billy – if you can’t beat ‘em….and all that!
November 12th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Monty asks:
Unless Winston is entirely changed from the man I once knew I’d imagine he is aware that support for the Bill risks eroding what little support remains amongst his core base of primarily elderly NZers but has been sold on the move as part of a package of “reforms” which will deliver money to NZF (see the other thread on changes to the use of Parliamentary funding – this is money NZF could not have hoped to have raised from elsewhere).
I’ve always said Winston has been the victim of his incredibly poor judgement when it comes to other people and his choice of coalition partners is a prime example.
Thanks to H1 & H2 manoevuring he now faces a stark choice – go along with this and (through spending the taxpayers’ money) maybe gain just enough support to keep alive the Party he’s invested so much of himself in – but at the expense of every principle on which it was founded; or uphold the principles and watch the Party descend into oblivion.
A sad end to a glorious idea.
November 12th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
A sad end to a glorious idea.
Yes Rex, Amen to that..
To think that I once Voted for Winston, I wished so much to believe what I thought he stood for.
Well I am wiser now. It is quite inconceivable to me that ANY one could now support this shadow of a man. A shadow of that he once was. pity..
November 13th, 2007 at 2:23 am
toms said: “A quick glance at the “your comments” section of the Herald makes fascinationg reading… the number of people who are strongly criticising the Herald indicates the paper has over-played its hand.”
It is fascinating, because these critical people seem to all be singing from the same hymnsheet:
Anna (Auckland) [waah waah waah waah]What is this? Fox news all of a sudden!
Mark (Auckland) [waah waah waah] What is this, Fox News?
Brad (Auckland)Wow, never in my life did I think I would see a New Zealand media outlet stoop to the one-sided, biased levels of Fox News.
Bored Silly: For a minute there I thought I’d accidently clicked on Fox news. This certainly isnt journalism people, it’s a paper pushing a political agenda.
Brad (Auckland) [waaah waah waah] This “editorial” is the exact sort of stuff pumped out 24/7 by the worst media organisation in the world, Fox News.
November 13th, 2007 at 8:20 am
DC,
Do you think that between posts, this individual was busy clicking “no” on the online poll?