The US markets
December 30th, 2007 at 3:01 pm by David FarrarI’ve covered the polls for the US nominations quite a bit, and a reader has suggested I look at the markets also. A good idea. So let us look at the activity on the Iowa Electronic Markets. Note this is about who will be the nominee, but who will win Iowa.
There really is no front runner. Rudy has dropped behind Romney. McCain is starting to attract some serious dollars. RROF means Republican Rest of Field. Thompson has really faded away.
The money for the Dems is very much on Hillary.
No tag for this post.
December 30th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Huckabee made a fool of himself following the Bhutto assassination with his citing of CIA, oops, figures given to him by staffers, oops, figures he looks to have pulled from his arse., regarding the number of Pakistanis illegally entering the US. Romney will fall because of his mormonism and with Thompson and Paul looking like also-rans I’m picking a two horse race. The interesting thing will be the nominees running mate.
Vote:Clinton is a dead cert for the Democrats but again the real fun will be the choice of a VP candidate. Mind you, with the attack campaigns only just beginning and nearly a full year to go things will be interesting to say the least.
December 30th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24148
Ann has it right again .
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 4:19 pm
Or a few choice quotes from Billary from Tammy Bruce’s blog ;
“So, you want a sense of what Hillary is really like? Here you have it.”
“Where is the g*dd*mn f*cking flag? I want the g*dd*mn f*cking flag up every f*cking morning at f*cking sunrise.”
Said by the First Lady of Arkansas to her staff at the Arkansas governor’s mansion on Labor Day, 1991. (Inside the White House, p. 244).
“F*ck off! It’s enough that I have to see you sh*t-kickers every day. I’m not going to talk to you, too. Just do your g*dd*mn job and keep your mouth shut.”
Said to her Arkansas state trooper bodyguards, after one of them deigned to greet her with “good morning.” (American Evita, p. 90)
“[You] f*cking idiot.”
To a state trooper who was driving her to an event. (Crossfire, p. 84). Describing Hillary’s general personality, Larry Gleghorn, a former state trooper, said: “She was a bitch day in and day out” (The First Partner, p. 119).
“That sorry son of a bitch.” That is what Hillary would often refer to Bill around the mansion of the Arkansas’s governor’s mansion, according to state trooper Larry Patterson.
“Personal, trained pigs.”
Vote:Gary Aldrich reported that as America’s First Lady, “[Hillary] had a clear dislike for the agents (U.S. Secret Service), bordering on hatred… Two Secret Service agents heard Hillary’s daughter Chelsea refer to them as ‘personal, trained pigs’ … The agent on the detail tried to scold Chelsea for such disrespect. He told her … he believed that her father, the president, would be shocked if he heard what she had just said to her friends. Chelsea’s response? ‘I don’t think so. That’s what my parents call you’ ”
December 30th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
cha, and you think Hillary DIDNT make a fool of herself by saying Pakistan could not be trusted to investigate the assassination? She’s got as much chance of being elected President as Helen Clark has of becoming the NZ leader of the Exclusive Brethren and I wouldn’t be too confident she will even make the nomination..
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Adolf – if you think that there is a lot of money for you to make at the betting agencies.
Cha,
I don’t see how one could have a two horse race between two ‘democrats in republican clothing’ for the republican nomination. there would be a segment of republicans willing to destroy their own party before they put Gulianni or McCain in charge of it.
Overall I still I think Romney and Hillary are still good bets even as favourites.
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 6:25 pm
Correct…Hillary a shoo in for the Dem nomination.
The culturally black, admitted hard drug using kid will have to wait for his demographic to get the numbers.
Romney not a chance…. as I’ve said before, Mormons are one step above Scientologists as far as the Rep base is concerned….this is not a JFK Catholic comparison.
Rudi is a surprise….he’s been painted as a Republican wet.
This conservative Republican site sees some “grit”.
Vote:http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24171
December 30th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
I’m still going well from my Nov 2006 prediction (which is the same more or less as my march 2006 one)
http://jtc.blogs.com/just_left/2006/11/mister_foot_in_.html#comment-24973085
only down side was not picking george allen self destructing – kicking myself for that…
Vote:December 30th, 2007 at 7:23 pm
These markets are more interesting than polls, I reckon. And generally more successful predictors too (tho with so many polls, some will always beat the markets). This is people betting real money after thinking about it pretty hard, and the market does its magic of combining all information anyone has to present the odds.
Vote:No race is a forgone conclusion – you can still buy a $1 pay-off for Hillary winning the Democrat nomination for just over 60 cents. That’s hardly a sign she’s a dead cert.
(the markets are run by Iowa state university – but are predicting the national party nomination winners, not the Iowa caucuses.)
Despite the markets, I reckon Romney and McCain are the only real prospects for the Republicans – can’t see the drop-out candidates endorsing Giuliani.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:05 pm
A Mormon president, the one who stated his
sons are fighting as hard as those poor buggers in Iraq.
I will believe it when I see the US embassy
Vote:say it is no longer serving booze.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
Grumpyoldhori-Romney religious beliefs will not result in liquour bans. He was Governor of Massachusetts for 4 years of one of America’s most liberal states. Cite me one example where he foisted Mormon beliefs and practices on MA State officials. You won’t find any because there weren’t any.
A recent poll of 15,000 likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa (a huge sample) puts Mitt Romney back on top of Huckabee who has made gaffe after gaffe of late. Romney still holds statistically significant leads over McCain in New Hampshire polls. A win in IA will give him a wealth of positive publicity given Huckabee’s recent poll leads. A 2nd win in NH (and Michigan where his father was a very popular 3 term Governor in the 60′s) puts Romney in poll position for South Carolina and Florida. If he wins IA, NH, MI and is a strong 2nd in SC and FL he goes into super Tuesday with the most money and the strongest nationwide GOTV operation. I’m predicting by 6 Feb Romney will be unbeatable as will Hillary on the Dems side.
Vote:December 31st, 2007 at 9:22 am
I think, whoever is nominated will make little difference. The wealth party will win this election as it always does. The two branches that give the appearance of an actual democracy in action will convince the electorate to split closely and the 1% margin will again be trivial compared to the 12% functionally illiterate, who would struggle to understand the advertisement even though they are intimately familiar with the results.
BJ
Vote:December 31st, 2007 at 9:37 am
So the US has sucessfully avoided having its President determined by the functionally illiterate…….those clever bastards dogged another bullet.
Vote:December 31st, 2007 at 9:38 am
Try “dodged”
Vote:December 31st, 2007 at 7:16 pm
A couple of things that annoy me:
1) The Iowa and New Hampshire primaries (both Democrat and Republican) are extremely unrepresentative of the US population in general, yet these two primaries provide the momentunm that can make or break a presidential campaign (i.e Carter came from nowhere in 1976 after winning Iowa, and Edwards had a similar boost , though he didn’t actually win the primary).
2) Two of Iowa’s major products are corn and pigs, which means the reduction of agricultural subsidies is off the agenda.
Vote: