Colin James on year ahead

January 22nd, 2008 at 7:15 am by David Farrar

Colin James looks at the task ahead of Labour:

The contrast with the opening month of the three most recent election years is stark. In each of those years Labour came off large December poll leads, 15 per cent average against Jenny Shipley’s fraying Government in 1999 and 11-12 per cent over the National oppositions of Bill English and Don Brash in 2002 and 2005.

This election-year Labour comes off a December average 15 per cent deficit to National, the mirror-image of 1999. And the strong economic tailwinds of 2002 and 2005 have turned round into a light but freshening headwind.

He then goes through the strategy that Labour needs to follow, to close the gap, and then finally notes:

Add it up and stir in that Clark is a proven Prime Minister – Labour bosses see scope for optimism as their year opens. Clark argues, too, that Labour has held its core 1999 vote of 38.7 per cent in polls. That, she says, is a firm launchpad for a fourth term bid.

Actually Labour’s poll support averaged just over 37 per cent last year. And it ended the year going down, not up.

You can’t rule Clark out – she will fight to the end. But not since 1996′s 22 per cent starting deficit has her climb ahead been so steep.

I very much agree you can not rule Clark out.  It is hard to see how Labour can get more votes than National, but unless there is a clear National or National-ACT majority in Parliament (which could be as large as 125 MPs), Clark will try to negotiate a fourth term with the Maori, NZ First and United Future parties.  The Greens will, as usual, support Labour no matter how minor their policy gains.

Now Clark in going for a 4th term will be willing to offer far more than John Key going for his 1st term.  If NZ First demand all their MPs become Cabinet Ministers, plus say a 20% increase in NZ superannuation, there is no way National would agree as it would guarantee they are a one term Government.  However Clark knowing she is in her final term anyway, can agree to anything no matter how fiscally irresponsible.

Finally, I should point out again that the reference to Labour’s 1999 vote of 38.7% is somewhat misleading.  Because in 1999 you also had the Alliance get around 7%, and all that solid left vote would have gone to Labour since then.  Labour won office in 1999 because the clear left vote was 51% (including the Greens).  The clear left vote is currently around 42%.

No tag for this post.

74 Responses to “Colin James on year ahead”

  1. southtop (262 comments) says:

    Clarks got a couple of problems: (without mentioning her self-destructing MP’s)
    Labour will fight for the left vote pulling out of an already struggling green party making the 5% tough…….1 less coalition partner
    Maori could potentially take all the Maori seats & could therefore ‘float’ to represent their people….why get locked into a coalition.
    Winston Poodle will have to win a seat to pull this one off
    Peter D…hell I hope a party stands someone with cred & removes this lyin a-hole.
    On the bright side Jim is not retiring so Wigram is safe.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. tim barclay (886 comments) says:

    The media (including James) like a contest so they will build one up as best they could. But all the media following the EFA are quite hostile to Labour and want a change in Government. It is nice to see the Tory press back, – long may it continue. Clark is resourceful on the short term but she misses out badly on longer term strategic matters. She thinks people forget so it does not matter. She still gets good support from women who think all those men are out to get her. But men have turned decisively against her, that b***h they call her and no-one bats an eyelid.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Pique Oil (39 comments) says:

    What Colin James hasn’t factored in are that Aunty Helen has benefited from a positive economy and until recently, relatively cheaper oil and energy prices.
    Labour have 8 months ahead where they will be hoping things fast. If they do then it was good economic management. If not then it will be bye bye.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. dave (986 comments) says:

    The Pivotal party in this election is not Labour, or Clarks strategy. It is a party that most of us are unable to cast a vote for that wont be wasted because we are not on the Maori roll and can’t vote for candidates in the Maori seats.

    The Maori seats could determine the Government in this election. Even more so if Winston Peters doesn`t regain his seat and gets under the 5 percent .
    The Maori Party will take most of the Maori seats and be the third biggest party in Parliament.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Richard Hurst (796 comments) says:

    I am a bit more negative on Labours chances and more positive on Nationals.

    1. History is against Labour- 4th term govts are rare.

    2. Economic situation is rapidly becoming worse, while in 2002 and 2005 the situation was continuing to improve in line with the global economy, now in line with the global economy we are hitting the floor. Interest rates, inflation and the tax cut battle with National will hit Labour hard. National have the advantage in this area. The economy as always will be the biggest issue in the election.

    3. The South Auckland vote machine is no longer certain with the fall of Mr Field and other parties, including the Christian fundamentalists seeking the S.AKLD vote. National won’t get any votes out of this situation but Labour will lose votes it once had there. It was pumping the S.AKLD vote machine that helped get them through last time.

    4. Media expectation. The NZ media do tend to turn on long serving govts and bite the hand that feeds. They did on the former Labour govt in its final years, they did on Nationals former admin in 1999.

    5.The polls are against Labour. They will swing back and forth as 2008 progresses but there is a trend which developed last year against Labour. We have seen in Aussie what those sort of trends against sitting govts result in.

    6. Kyoto will be the second biggest issue in the election. Labours Kyoto policy will be a curse once voters realize the full costs of the policy and effect it will have on them combined with rising inflation and CPI already. Voters will be more attracted to Nationals slower implementation of Kyoto which will be similar to Kevin Rudds slower Kyoto policy that Aussie voters voted for. A big assumption but that’s what I’m thinking based on past comments and policies shown to date.

    7. Labour will lose all the Maori seats. This will further erode the Labour block in the house, helping to make National the biggest party in Parliament.

    8. In any possible deal with Labour the Greens will demand far more than either NZ First or United Future could tolerate. The Greens have already made that clear. This will make deals for Labour very difficult.

    9. Most rural seats will stay with or go over to National. There has been too many battles (fart tax, public access, farm dog micro chipping, rural school closures etc) between rural NZ and Labour for much support to remain and Kyoto and its costs are going to be a bloody battle ground in 2008.National have a number of very personally strong, politically aggressive MP’s typified by ones like Joe Goodhew down in South Canterbury who unseated Jim Sutton.

    10. Age. Helen is becoming an old lady these days and Cullen looks more and more like grandpa let out of the rest home for the day. National in comparison are younger.

    I’m making some big assumptions here, but hey that’s just what I think.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    [mailto:leeharman42@hotmail.com] > Sent: Monday, 16 July 2007 1:59 p.m.> To: Willie Jackson> Subject: Contact from Radiolive.co.nz> >

    Willy: I think the next election will be a make-or-break for MMP as far as> voters go. I think that many will gravitate to the main party of> opposition ie National because their a vote for anyone who isn”t> National – will be a de-facto vote for Labour. But before the election,> Labour will provide a lolly-scramble of cash incentives and perhaps> finance a book which will defame Key with illegally procured> information. However, the voters may not be fooled. I think that the> retrospective legislation was Labour”s iceberg, and, as much as they> try to get the life-boats in the water, they will go down! The Greens> will see a reduced result the Maori party will see and increase, Rodney> Hide – History, Winston Peters – History and Mangere will go to an> ex-All Black. I bet you $10.00.

    Subject: RE: Contact from Radiolive.co.nz> Date: Mon, 16 Jul 2007 14:02:53 +1200> From: wjackson@radioworks.co.nz> To: leeharman42@hotmail.com> >

    Make it $200 you wimp and your on. > > —–

    http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/

    I think I might have to save up my $200.00 – Looks now like Hide will survive!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    I can’t believe you all are sitting her talking about Liarbour having any chance. We all know where we will be by the end of 2008. Finally an honest government with John Key actually running the country rather than just going overseas to hob nob with communists. Finally an end to Kyoto bullshit and political correctness. And since National’s first act will be to overturn the EFA, Labour will lose all of its taxpayer funding, and since we all know that without that funding Labour would collapse, I think I can say that by the end of this year there will not even BE a Labour party. Probably the rump will reconstitute itself as the New Zealand Stalinist Party and the failures like Aunty Helen and her lesbian boyfriend Cullen will all be begging for change in the alleyways LOL… actually more likely they will get plumb UN jobs and start trying to cut New Zealand’s throat from abroad like they tried to cut it from inside [and mostly succeeded] for the last 9 years. But that’s a battle we can fight another day.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. slightlyrighty (2,499 comments) says:

    If Clark has to rely on Cullen, Goff and Mallard to take the attack to John Key in election year, then she is in trouble. Cullen has already nailed his colours to the mast with his “rich prick” outburst and any other crticism will be seen in that prejudicial light,

    Mallard, once Clarks personal “bovver boy” has pretty much made himself irrelevant with the toe to toe with Tau, and more so with the slanderous comments to civil service whistleblowers and recent court appearances. Compounded with his personal problems he lacks the “moral high” that gives veracity to his criticisms.

    This leaves Goff, who according to some was essentially snubbed at the recent cabinet reshuffle. Goff is a good operator who retains good focus on issues, and is less prone to lapse into irrelevant invective. His full knowledge of the issues surrounding the Taito Feild affair has never been fully established, even though he visited the house in Samoa where the thai tiler worked, alledgedly at the time he was working there.

    Which is the other matter that Colin James has failed to mention. Although TPF is now a nominal independant MP, we will see a court case which will taint Labour, and will highlight dealings between Labour ministers that could be seen as questionable.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Personally I think there is a looming internicine war within the Labour hierarchy.

    I think that Clark and Cullen have signed thier own warrants with the EFA and the use of the whip.
    There is a new generation of Labour politician waitng for a go, Goff is apparent. But Clark et al are the old-gurad and will block them.

    The result – civil war!

    Labour are stuck with Clark for the next election. SAhe and Cullen are monkeys on their back. After the nexst election, Clark will jump or be pushed (regardless of ewin or lose) within 9 – 18 moinths of the result. If they lose, whe will go a damn sight faster as she willl be about as useful to Labour as tits on a snake.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    Goff the ‘new guard’? LOL what planet are you from Lee? Goff has been around since the days of Douglas and Lange. He’s the same tired old Soviet apparatchik as always. He might want to be running things rather than being Minister of whatever he is Minister of right now but he is no different from any of the other Liarbour assassins.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    fair call Daedalus – I see you and raise it – who does represent a ‘new guard’ for Labour (ie who has what it takes to challenge our glorious leader, maybe that ‘son she never had’ character?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Actually as you pointed it out, D. I now see how dumb the Goff-New Guard assertion was.

    sorry.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Graeme Edgeler (3,276 comments) says:

    Labour will lose all the Maori seats. This will further erode the Labour block in the house, helping to make National the biggest party in Parliament.

    It doesn’t matter how many Maori (or other electorate seats) Labour loses, the size of the Labour block will be determined by their party vote.

    Any overhang caused by the Maori Party will “erode” National’s and Labour’s blocks equally.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Graeme that article about bail you mentioned – is the link back up yet? thnx

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. dave (986 comments) says:

    ..and a bomb-out by NZ First will probably inflate National and Labour’s blocks equally as well as the party voptes are sprayed around.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    Lee, there is no new guard in Labour – they are paleo-socialists all the way who still haven’t dragged themselves kicking and screaming into the 1950s and realised that maybe Josef Stalin didn’t have the answers after all. And there will be no need for a new leader once Klarke steps down because once the money feed runs out Labour will have not even enough money for a stale poppadom. Especially when John Key makes them pay back everything they stole. I wouldn’t be surprised if Helen lands up in jail for treason. That still gets the death penalty, doesn’t it?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. Richard Hurst (796 comments) says:

    Yes, Graeme .E, the party vote is the biggest factor but Labour will still lose any remaining Maori seats it has thus eroding their overall Lalour party block. National have no Maori seats to lose.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    agreed Richard.
    D. The possible new gurad – ‘Helenized’, or castrated?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. Lindsay Addie (1,168 comments) says:

    Colin James leans to the left yet again. What’s new?

    I find it very difficult to take that guy seriously…..

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    The Labour new guard = in jail for treason, same as the old guard.

    I am serious, we are going to need something like South Africa had, a truth commission to try Helen and her cronies for their crimes of the last nine years. Hopefully John Key will promise as much soon. Now THAT is a public service job I could get into!

    I think what we should really be doing is trying to predict what the new parliament will look like in the 2011 election, after the EFA has gone and FPP has come back. The first fair election in 15 years… I think it will be National about 80 seats, ACT about 35 seats and the New Zealand Communist Reformation Party, made up of those Liarbour and Greenites who survived the Truth Commission with their skins (but not their reputations) intact maybe 5 seats.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. Monty (966 comments) says:

    I agree with Colin (and I think Hootten made a similar comment some weeks ago.)

    Labour’s biggest problem is that no one is listening to them any more. Labour have become a party of the past, whereas National (with a younger caucas) are the party of the future. The majority of people (the right voting block) are keen for John Key to become Prime Minister. Add into that the “time for a change” and everything is stacked against Labour.

    Of course this is reflected in Parliament right now. The Labour MPs are all stroppy and miserable. The staff serving these Labour MPs are also a miserable bunch being well aware that their golden weather is about to come to an abrupt end come the election. Many (most) staffers are now looking for secure work elsewhere, the civil service is leaking like a sieve, and from this position, Labour are doomed.

    Labour because of the stress will continue with own goals and poor political management. This will be one of their worst and most damaging defeats.

    The French Champagne has been purchased and will be put of ice on election day.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. BeShakey (405 comments) says:

    “Now Clark in going for a 4th term will be willing to offer far more than John Key going for his 1st term.”

    I think the opposite is true. Clark has had 3 terms, she’s put together coalitions. I don’t think the public will want to see a radical change in the nature of these coalitions, and if it does happen it’ll be very easy for the opposition to paint it as desperation, buying the election, fiscal irresponsibility etc.

    Key on the other hand has supporters (see above) who are willing to give up pretty much anything to get into power. They hate Labour, and there aren’t many concessions they would be unwilling to accept to get rid of it. Of course, it is in Keys interests not to give away too much, but he has a lot more lattitude than Clark.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. dave (986 comments) says:

    The party vote is the biggest factor but Labour will still lose any remaining Maori seats it has thus eroding their overall Labour party block. National have no Maori seats to lose.
    Not quite. At all. The number of seats a party gets is dependant on its list vote. If a party is entitled, based on its list vote to 22 seats and 10 of these are electorate seats, then that means the remaining 12 are off the list. If two of these seats are Maori seats, that means 8 are general electorate seats. If the same result happens the following election – 22 seats – but the Maori seats are lost and just 8 electorat seats are won, the list seats increase to 14 to get to the entitlement of 22. OTOH if thy win more electorate seats – say 21. The party has one list seat.

    Therefore the block is not “eroded ” by the loss of Maori seats.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. Simeon (142 comments) says:

    “Labour won office in 1999 because the clear left vote was 51% (including the Greens). The clear left vote is currently around 42%.”

    So when Helen Clark says that her party is polling just below what they came to power with, she is making a big mistake. Her clear supporters have gone.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    If I were the Greens I’d demand a cabinet seat after the next Labour victory.

    If I were Labour, I’d wonder if they will merit it based on their waning support.

    If I were Maori I’d want a review/royal commission into The foreshore and Seabed Act.

    If I were National I’d have one.

    The only thing left for Labour and the Greens is a re-run of the EB fiasco or something similar, using stolen information – sorry ‘intelligence’ this time implicating John Key. But in the meantime a continuous smear-campaign from the VDS.

    http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/2008/01/key-rich-prick.html

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. BeShakey (405 comments) says:

    “If I were National I’d have one [Royal Commission into Foreshore and Seabed].”

    And then? The maori party haven’t indicated they want a royal commission. They want to scrap the legislation (as do the Nats) and replace it with something that would allow the courts to consider the issue (not so much the Nats). So what will the Nats do? If anything is going to be a bottom line that probably is. The maori party surely aren’t so stupid that they’d scrap the legislation and let the Nats replace it with something even less amenable to them. But will the conservative Nats voters be willing to accept Maori ownership of the beaches (that’ll be what the headlines will be)? The Nats will have a big job trying to get the Maori party on board, they might get away with not changing the seabed and forshore legislation, simply because no one else will, but then what will they offer the maori party in exchange for their support?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. dave (986 comments) says:

    They`ll agree not to touch the Maori seats, for starters

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    The Maori party will never go with the Nats, it would be political suicide.

    Plus can anyone imagine such a coaltion lasting longer than a month?

    Get real guys.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Woooh BeShakey that hit a nerve didn’t it?

    I DOUBLE my calls for a Royal Commission on the FaS Act.

    Under MMP, you could concede the premise that with the proper dialogue and consultation, some progress is possible, surely.

    Oh no, I forgot…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    And I raise it with this possibility:

    http://monkeyswithtypewriter.blogspot.com/2008/01/royal-commission-on-elctoral-reform.html

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. Inventory2 (10,173 comments) says:

    The Maori party vote is pivotal to any slim chance that Labour has of retaining office. At the last election, Maori had the luxury of casting electorate votes for the MP candidates, but still giving their party vote to Labour as they have for decades in accordance with the Ratana accord. If anything however, the division between Labour and the Maori Party has deepened throughout this term of Parliament, and the MP may well campaign on a “two ticks Maori” strategy. If Labour leaks Maori party votes, and leaks some of its PI vote in South Auckland, Labour could be in major trouble.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. Ryan Sproull (7,059 comments) says:

    The only thing left for Labour and the Greens is a re-run of the EB fiasco or something similar, using stolen information – sorry ‘intelligence’ this time implicating John Key. But in the meantime a continuous smear-campaign from the VDS.

    John Key was implicated last time. He wasn’t grown in a vat after Brash was ditched.

    I DOUBLE my calls for a Royal Commission on the FaS Act.

    Good plan, though both National and Labour have a history of ignoring third-party reports and recommendations when it doesn’t suit them, like with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples or whatever it’s called, or the Royal Commission into electoral funding in the ’80s.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Agreed, but what is needed, is a change in attitude, actually a cultural shift in the way the country is governed, and I seriously think Labour under the present lot had burned too many bridges.

    The fact that good advice has been ignored is not the basis on which to recommend it be ignored in future.

    On the contrary, it really is time to learn the lessons of some of the dumb lawmaking of recent times and go back to basic – formulate well-drafted laws based on proper consultation, and with the agreement of all interested parties.

    There’s a name for it what was it now? Ah yes, democracy.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. Ryan Sproull (7,059 comments) says:

    On the contrary, it really is time to learn the lessons of some of the dumb lawmaking of recent times and go back to basic – formulate well-drafted laws based on proper consultation, and with the agreement of all interested parties.

    There’s a name for it what was it now? Ah yes, democracy.

    Fair enough, but the “agreement of all interested parties” isn’t always the democratic way to go. The interests of influential minority groups can be proportionally overrepresented due to the power of wealth in paying experts, marketing, etc. Nor do people always understand what is best for them (a dangerous way to think, I know). Consider the tax break in the US that benefitted the top 1% of earners. Polls showed that 20% of the country thought they were in the top 1% and another 30% thought they would be in the top 1% within five years, so that half of the respondents supported the legislation because they thought it was good for them personally.

    I agree that we need a change in attitude, and I think that change has to include a broader scheme of civic education and critical-thinking training in high schools.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. Graeme Edgeler (3,276 comments) says:

    Lee C – yes – the article is here:

    http://publicaddress.net/default,4589.sm#post

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Nor do people always understand what is best for them”

    Jezuz h Christ on a bike. what an extremely irritating post to read as the first item on Kiwiblog today.

    There’s no justification whatsoever for half educated elitist socialist dumbfucks to ever take the right to decide for oneself away.

    “has to include a broader scheme of civic education and critical-thinking training in high schools.”

    The level of indoctrination and propaganda in this country has already reached a level that threatens civility. When are you bastards going to realize how offensive your ideas are, and when are you going to get the fuck out our faces, AND LEAVE US THE FUCK ALONE???????? Jezuz..

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Thank you Graeme. Ryan yes, I agree. But in part. I see your point about the influence of pressure groups, but that is not a baisis on which to refuse to get into any consultation. Life is just like that, and as grown ups, it is our civic duty to work within it, or seek to change it. Again, with the proper consultation and representation.

    The abuse of parlaimentary process under MMP I think has been in part caused by this reductionistic approach to legislation the idea that ‘our views are the best, so on this occasion everyone else will simply have to suck on a lemon if they don’t like it.’

    This has resulted in catastrophic consequences for us the people – one example?
    s59 now equate to more vulnerable at risk kids not getting fostered in South Auckland.

    This is why I think a cultural change is needed, and I hope that a government under John Key can provide it, because Helen’s had a fair go, and we are now a more polarised and divided society in terms of earnings and priviledge than when when started out.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. Colin (88 comments) says:

    Ryan S said.
    Nor do people always understand what is best for them (a dangerous way to think, I know).

    Indeed a dangerous way to think Ryan but true nevertheless. It is probably the reason why democracy has been described as “the worse form of government -except for every other form of government”.

    It is for this reason that we must have a free exchange of information and a robust and unfettered debating of ideas and policies in election year to counter this ignorance. Those that supported the EFA are guilty of trying to turn off the lights so peolple can’t see the real state of the Nation.

    But I don’t believe you can treat voters with disdain indefinitely. Abraham Lincoln apparently said “You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all the time. Hopefully come November 2008 the majority of NZers will fall into the final category.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Abraham Lincoln apparently said “You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all the time. ”

    Yep, good ole Abe said that OK, but this was long before the education system became the domain of the leftist indoctrinators, and the education process became a means of inducting people into socialist society rather than giving them the means to think rationally and clearly.

    Whilst schooling remains in the hands of the left, a lot more of the people will be fooled for a lot longer period of time. Only harsh reality will alter their thinking patterns. NZ’s probability is that that reality, when it finally arrives, when all the deceit and propaganda has failed, and when the people have finally wisened up to how they have been lied to and deceived and made fools of, is going to be very very harsh. Like it was in East Germany maybe.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  40. ph (8 comments) says:

    Delurking to make just a couple of points.

    1) Tim B
    Only gynophobic dunderheads refer to women as bitches. Also, I am a man and I have not ‘turned against Helen Clark’ so maybe your rash generalisation needs some qualifying. Try ‘some men have turned against …’ or ‘some polls indicate that support for Clark by men seems to be declining’ but spare us the knuckle dragging grunting that passes for political discussion amongst your male acquaintances and taints so much of the somewhat intellectually challenged NZ political blogosphere as far as comments go. That said, I have my caveats about some of the decisions that have been made by the current regime.
    This is just a one person crusade to inject some simple civility and courtesy into the discourse of the blogging public sphere. An uphill struggle I admit.

    2) Craig Ranapia
    If you’re reading this, you’ve made it into the Guardian.
    well done!

    http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/01/royal_row_over_sir_edmund_hill.html

    OK, let the counting of unhatched electoral chickens and the torrents of mindless, adolescent personal abuse continue.

    cheers
    ph

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  41. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    “NZ’s probability is that that reality, when it finally arrives, when all the deceit and propaganda has failed, and when the people have finally wisened up to how they have been lied to and deceived and made fools of, is going to be very very harsh.

    Still dreaming of the glorious day when you get your revenge on those lefties who have made your life a misery ratbiter?

    Well enjoy the wait.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  42. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    Sonic, laugh all you want, but when your glorious leader Klarke is on trial for crimes against the state, you’ll be laughing out the other side of your mouth.

    Might want to invest in a good lawyer.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  43. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    “when your glorious leader Klarke is on trial for crimes against the state”

    I’ll not hold my breath if that’s ok.

    “Crimes against the State”

    Interesting formulation there, mind you I prefer the phrase in the original German.

    Verbrechen gegen den Zustand, I believe it is.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  44. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    Well what would you call robbign taxpayers in order to fund her campaign for a sweet UN spot if not treason? (Which I remind you still gets the death penalty) John Key has not said anything about his plan to convene a Truth Commission to hold accoutnable the Stalinists who have used this country as their personal fiefdom for the last nine years, but only so that Klarke and company do not get spooked and try to flee the country while they still have power…although I would not be surprised if a plane to CUba or Venezuela is not the Prime Minister’s first priority when the results come in.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  45. gd (2,286 comments) says:

    IMHO if the Nats vote holds up then the Maori Party will do a deal to support them on an issue by issue basis but abstain in a confidence motion.

    There seems to be a number of issues where the Nats and Maori Party have common ground.

    If Dunny holds his seat he will go with the Nats same as Rodders. Cant see Winnie winning Tauranga or getting over the bar so NZ1 a gonna. Same with the Greens. Will there be a right royal battle over Nandor and Russel and if so will this impact their vote.

    So could finish up with

    62 Nats 50 Labour 7 Maori plus Dunny Rodders and Jimmy for 122

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  46. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    ‘Verbrechen gegen den Zustand,’ ?1?

    I love it when sonic ‘talks durdy’.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  47. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Only gynophobic ”

    More made up words. When will this politically correct syndrome finally run its course???

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  48. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Well enjoy the wait.”

    House affordability.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  49. Pascal (2,015 comments) says:

    daedalus_x: Well what would you call robbign taxpayers in order to fund her campaign for a sweet UN spot if not treason? (Which I remind you still gets the death penalty)

    Oh sweet mother of hyperbolic overreactions. You can call it corruption or theft, but treason? Do you really want to sound like a frothing fruitcake?

    Whatever ill work Labour has done over the last 9 years has been done at the behest of a MMP majority in parliament with the consent and approval of a swathe of the New Zealand population.

    I can’t help but feel that this election will be a media campaign, centering around the EFA. And in that battle Labour will be destined to lose if – IF – the National Party and cohorts play a sensible, moderate game and come up with intelligent policies that will look to New Zealand, not to the National Party or specific interest groups.

    But there’s also the nagging suspicion in my mind that all the shit of the last 9 years has been building up behind the scenes and that it’s about to hit the fan. Whomever forms a government after this will need a mop and a bucket to clean up this mess.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  50. slightlyrighty (2,499 comments) says:

    Pascal said “Whatever ill work Labour has done over the last 9 years has been done at the behest of a MMP majority in parliament with the consent and approval of a swathe of the New Zealand population.”

    If the swathe of the NZ public knew what they know now, would the result have been different????

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  51. ph (8 comments) says:

    Redbaiter.
    Um, all words tend to be ‘made up’ whatever that means. It’s not as if they’re hewn from rocks by the horny handed sons and daughters of labour and then refined at a language factories somehwre in China where exploited workers sweat over nouns and verbs for 12 hour shifts.

    Here’s one definition from freedictionary (google will give you more)

    gy·no·pho·bi·a (gn-fb-, jn-, jn-)
    n.
    1. Fear of or contempt for women.
    2. Behavior based on such an attitude or feeling.

    Judging by your somewhat inflexible political/social/cultural views I am not surprised to find you a proponent of normative lingustic ideas. Get hip daddyo, languages change all the time. Mainly because people ‘make up’ words. By the way, your views on the so-called ‘politically correct syndrome’ might carry some weight if I could force myself to believe you knew anything about sociolinguistics.
    Don’t thank me, it’s a pleasure to enlighten you.

    cheers
    ph

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  52. daedalus_x (58 comments) says:

    “Whatever ill work Labour has done over the last 9 years has been done at the behest of a MMP majority in parliament with the consent and approval of a swathe of the New Zealand population.”

    Yes, an MMP majority – a system designed by the Left, that favours the Left. I’m sorry but the fact that the forces of freedom managed to form government for 3 years (although they had to do a deal with *spit* Winston to do it) under this communist electoral system doesn’t mean it is not a communist electoral system. And that’s to say nothing of Labour faking the polls in 2005 to give illegal immigrants in South Auckland votes. But don’t let me tell you about it – it will all come out at the trials next year.

    “And in that battle Labour will be destined to lose if – IF – the National Party and cohorts play a sensible, moderate game and come up with intelligent policies that will look to New Zealand, not to the National Party or specific interest groups. ”

    There is no IF here Pascal. Have some faith. John Key is a christian man of honour and responsibility who only wants what is best for his fellow kiwis and the country he loves. He would never be corrupt or steal, let alone commit treason and blasphemy like Klarke.

    “Whomever [John Key] forms a government after this will need a mop and a bucket to clean up this mess.”

    Well there I agree with you.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  53. LabourDoesntWork (286 comments) says:

    Clark=bitch? I’ll second that. The gynophobe here is Clark with her perverse radical feminist view of men and women.
    Clark has managed to go through life without learning a thing. She’s still stuck in the reactionary utopian fantasy world she entered when she was 18 when she discovered Communism. It was the first and last time the world made sense to this pinhead.
    The problem with well-educated intelligent feminist dunderheads like her is they’re smart enough to convince themselves that their idiotic contrarian views of universal things like marriage are actually correct. Academia is rife with those whacky leftist ideas from the likes of her precisely because in the cloud cuckooland of academia they don’t have to be tested against reality.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  54. Richard Hurst (796 comments) says:

    dave: Labour will lose the Maori seats as well as the party votes from Maori. This will reduce Labours overall presence in parliament. Labour will come out worse (ie eroded) from the growth of the Maori party in parliament than National.
    Oh, yuk! I just saw that creep Mallard at Sir Ed’s sendoff on tele!!! The last person who should have been allowed in there!! Makes me wish I didnt’ work weekends then I won’t have had to see that. How offensive!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  55. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “Don’t thank me, it’s a pleasure to enlighten you.”

    Can’t wait for it to happen.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  56. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Ph, you don’t need fancy words to explain our ratbiting chum. He is just an old fashioned sexist.

    I remember he told us he would never marry a Kiwi girl as they “did not know their place”

    Their place, no doubt, to serve ratbiter.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  57. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    BTW, my Collins doesn’t have the word, but then, they’re not yet infected with the same kind of trendy post modern bullshit as sources like “freedictionary”…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  58. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I remember he told us he would never marry a Kiwi girl as they “did not know their place””

    How unusual to find the bitter little commie loser Sonic resorting to lies as a means of smearing. Scotch ape.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  59. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Yes ratbiter, deny your own words.

    Personally I think it’s not something you have to worry about, given your sunny and carefree personality I doubt any woman who was not after a NZ entry visa would take you in a lucky bag.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  60. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Oh and if I may add

    “my Collins doesn’t have the word”

    http://www.collinslanguage.com/results.aspx?js=on&dictionary=cedm&text=gynophobia

    Perhaps time to update from the 1901 edition, eh ratbiter?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  61. side show bob (3,660 comments) says:

    I like this idea of a Truth Comission but it won’t work, the lunatics of the left have probably lost any ability to even comprend the truth.

    But if does happen where will I be able to purchase tickets, it would be a great show.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  62. ISeeRed (244 comments) says:

    “So Clark will squeeze Cullen’s surplus hard.”

    Was Colin James being facetious here? Does this make Cullen NZ’s richest prick?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  63. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Given the possiblity of a world-wide economic crash, I think we might all be grateful for that surplus soon.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  64. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I doubt any woman who was not after a NZ entry visa would take you in a lucky bag.”

    You mean all of those Nigerians that Klark brings in so they will vote for her? Or perhaps you mean those hairy bowlegged cave dwelling harridans and whores from north of Hadrian’s wall. Believe me Sonik, even if what you claimed was true, its not something I would regret in any way.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  65. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    “I think we might all be grateful for that surplus soon.”

    That’s the surplus Kullen claims does not exist right???

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  66. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    BTW dumbfuck (Sonik) have another look at that page of the Collins dictionary you referenced.

    Haw haw.. what a wanker…

    ———————-

    “gynophobia” was not found in the Collins English Dictionary.

    Please check your spelling and try again.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  67. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    It’s that attitude that ensures your footloose and fancy free single lifestyle will not be changing any time soon ratbiter.

    Got a new dictionary yet?

    Loser.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  68. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    You dont really understand cookies do you ratbiter. Not got premuim access to it have you?

    No wonder you never got past level 1 tech support loser.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  69. Redbaiter (13,197 comments) says:

    Smirk.. what a wanker…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  70. sonic (2,818 comments) says:

    Well considering you are the lonely single boy with internet access, I’d be careful in using that particular insult.

    Enjoy!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  71. PhilBest (5,120 comments) says:

    “The clear left vote is currently around 42%.”

    That’s 42% of NZ-ers who are extremely stupid, don’t know anything about history or can’t learn from it, and who have been propagandised by our loyal lefty teachers and journalists.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  72. tim barclay (886 comments) says:

    ph my comment about Helen Clark being a b***h is a political statement. She plays the game hard so she can expect a reposnse. As I said using strong language against her does not get much of a response except mild approval even from people not given to locker room language. Of course she will try anything saying it is like striking a woman if one uses locker room language against her. But she is in the kitchen, she can expect heat.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  73. dave (986 comments) says:

    Richard Hurst, if those voting in the Mari seats dont vote Labour who will they vote for? The Maori Party? Yeah right. Whatever would be the point of that? More likely to be a shfit to National but not that much to make a difference to labours list vote.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  74. Duxton (589 comments) says:

    One issue that really grates with me is Labour’s claim to be the party of national identity. Many of it’s early leaders – indeed, right up to Kirk – managed to avoid military service in both world wars. To make it worse, it managed to ensure that many of its supporters in the trade union movement were exempted service during WW2.

    One of Labour’s big publicity stunts this year will be for the Vietnam War protestors Clark and Goff to belatedly present campaign medals to those who served in Vietnam. The hypocrisy!

    MY spies tell me that the Labour-supporting head of the RSA, Robin Klitscher, will be on hand with messages of support for Labour.

    [DPF: I seem to recall Robin being a vocal critic of the decision to get rid of the air combat wing]

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.