McCain wins Florida
John McCain has won Florida by around 4% over Mitt Romney. It was a close race for a key state. Florida was a rare winner take all state so McCain got all 57 delegates and now leads the delegate count. It was also a closed primary so it showed he can win without the votes of Independents.
Rudy was a distant third on 15% and his campaign is over before it really started. A bit of a pity as I like the fact he was a Republican who was liberal on religious and moral type issues. But he should withdraw now and endorse McCain.
McCain is the only Republican candidate with a chance of beating Clinton or Obama. I hope he gets the nomination. Looking at the polls he is ahead by around 9% in both California with 173 delegates and New York with 101. But Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee and Arizona have 308 delegates between them and little polling there. New York is winner takes all so very impt. McCain is on 32%, Rudy 22% and Romney 14% so if Rudy withdraws McCain should win easily.
I think we still have Maine to go before Super Duper Tuesday.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
If I had to vote Republican McCain is the only one I would support. He has integrity, he’s willing to be independent, and has actually been in combat in a POW, unlike most of the recent war-mongering draft-dodgers.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I agree. I find it very important that candidates are war vets.
Otherwise how can they truly understand what it’s like to work the 9-5 grind with a family, and mortgage.
I’m so sick of these out of touch politicians.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Arizona at least should go for McCain…
If he can’t win his home state in the primary, he’s got some problems.
January 30th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Are there any thoughts of Guiliani as McCain’s running mate? Go McCain!
January 30th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Nicely put david c.
The way people talk, you’d think the US president’s main job was to start wars.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Last I heard McCain is struggling in his home state.
Could be a brokered convention which opens the way for either Fred or Newt.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
McCain is hopeless. What a farce.
True, he’s a war vet, but his stance on many issues is unclear and on many other issues completely wrong. (Climate change for example). The only thing good about McCain being elected as POTUS (if it happens) is that it will give impetus to the push for eventual real change in the Republican Party.
McCain will just be another Bush style disappointment, and people will eventually get fed up with such compromisers- Politicians who are almost impossible to distinguish from their supposed ideological opponents.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
McCain is also a friend of NZ:
http://blogsformccain.blogspot.com/2006/03/john-mccain-to-push-free-trade-with.html
http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=14651&cid=15&cname=Politics
January 30th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Are there any thoughts of Guiliani as McCain’s running mate?
May well depend on a withdrawl and endorsement before Super Duper Tuesday — where there’s more than a few states where Guiliani’s vote could be greater than the margin between McCain and Romney.
BTW, so much for the meme that money buys elections ay?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
I’m very dissappointed to see Giuliani go.
Hopefully Bloomberg decides to run.
I need to do some Wikipedia research to access who the best candiate is still in the race – as I’m not sure about any of them.
I reckon a Obama/Bloomberg ticket would be enough to swing me to the democrate side.
GPT1 – McCain may pick a democrate as his running mate. McCain is very chummy with that Lieberman guy.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Better Hillary win than McCain drag the Republican party down further…
January 30th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Behind Giuliani in one poll in November. The two polls conducted this year have him around 20 points ahead of Romney.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Redbaiter – which politicans (recent past and present) do you like?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Rudy isn’t a VP sort and appeals to same people as McCain. McCain will need a Governor probably – quite possibly Huckabee. Will unite the base.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
No one’s claiming that the candidate with the most money wins in every single election.
But if money doesn’t affect the outcome, then why do politicians work so damn hard at fundraising?
January 30th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
McCain is interesting, but I worry that ultimately he will be too old. I realise that age shouldn’t be relevant, but I think voters will take it into account.
The fact that RedBaiter doesn’t like McCain is a great endorsement. A Republican that RedBaiter doesn’t like would probably be almost electable (although, to be fair, he doesn’t like any of them, and some of them I don’t think are electable).
Guliani’s problem is that he is a bit of a wanker – nobody who knows him likes him so far as I can tell, and he goes through wives at a great rate of knots. Kind of reminds me of Donald Trump for some reason.
Romney isn’t out of it yet, but agree that McCain is suddenly looking very strong.
Between any of Obama, Romney or McCain, I reckon any would make a pretty good president.
January 30th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
The election will be decided at the Democratic Convention in the choice of the Edwards delegates.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I really think the theo-cons have done a pretty good job of cluster-fucking themselves — the grotesque fiscal irresponsibility, the biggest expansion of the federal government since LBJ, the apparent belief that the Bible trumps the Constitution every time, the folks who got exposed as grotesque moral hypocrites, the unrelenting shrillness and dishonesty of the Coulter-oids. And McCain’s the one dragging the party down? Talk about denial, but I guess we are dealing with the alternate universe where he isn’t a ‘real conservative’ either.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
I think DPF is right with his comment – getting Huckabee to endorse McCain in exchange for being his running mate should sew up the nomination.
I’d still vote Democrat however, if I was in the US.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
“Redbaiter – which politicans (recent past and present) do you like?”
I don’t “like” politicians. If I was pressed to choose one as a possible POTUS, it would be Duncan Hunter. (still running IIRC)
I might admire some of them on a personal level (Bill English in NZ for example) but I have little need for any of them to interfere in my life the way they seem to believe they must.
..and I don’t understand why so many others seem to so obsessively in need of them. What the fuck is it with people that they apparently cannot live without these interfering control freaks holding their hands from cradle to grave???
January 30th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
I think you’re largely right (I’ve been positing this pairing for some time, but don’t have too much to base it on – they seem to get on well with each other, though).
However, it’s probably a lot better for McCain if this happens a little later. Huckabee will take conservative votes from Romney in some key states on Super Tuesday. If Huckabee pulls out now, even if he endorses McCain, some of his votes won’t go that way in the primary.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Oh, RB – Duncan Hunter pulled out after Nevada. He endorsed Huckabee.
January 30th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Thanks for that Graeme.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
I agree with RB re: McCain, he will be another Bush, a miserable failure and will probably lead the US into several more wars.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
GPT1,
Guliani is a disaster – it would be like picking Mark Latham as your running mate. still Guliani could make a deal regarding throwing his support behind mccain
Huckabee would be a little dangerous too – the story could be “what if mccain has a heart attack.. HUCKABEE as President”.
Mccain should take someone solid. Fred or something.
January 30th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
McCain would do worse than Romney as VP but the momentum is his and it now seems the Republicans have slowly edged towards the one person who does not have baggage from Bush. Now we have the Democrats with their race row stirred up by the Clintons. Probably one of the most cynical political moves that has ever been. If I ever thought of supporting Hillary Clinton I will not now after that. It seems the Clintons will try anything to get Bill back into the White House amongst all those interns. The man would even turn gay if no young ladies were employed.
[DPF: McCain and Romney pretty much hate each other]
January 30th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
I think McCain will probably take Fred Thompson as his running mate, as he would shore up the conservative base and is also his good mate. InNo way should be choose Fuckabee, to most people he has no redeeming qualities which couldn’t be found elsewhere. Although I think a great choice for Veep would be Condaleeza Rice, it would totally neutralize any accusations of being an old white man ticket with absolutely no compromise on quality
January 30th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
I was a supporter of Rudy but after watching Fox news all afternoon I can see the baggage that Rudy had.
McCain in the end will give the GOP a chance, not to win places like New York,Conneticutt or even California. He’ll win the rock solid south,farm states,border states and the key states like Ohio,Wisconsin,Florida,Colorado and perhaps
New Jersey.
McCain is a cantankerous person, a very short temper but has a background with a great story of bravery.It will be interesting to see how left wing rat bag papers like The NY Times,LA Times and Washington Post handle their bias against conservatives.
If he runs against the doubtful Clinton’s look for raw sewerage around.The Clinton’s have skated along just within the law, but always willing to look after themselves.
My pick depends how the US economy goes and Iraq.
VP candidate for the GOP Charlie Crist(Gov of Florida)Senator Sam Brownback(Kansas) or Senator Tom Coburn(Oklahoma).
You can cut out most of the eastern states, they will go Democrat.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
GNZ, funny you should say:
“Huckabee would be a little dangerous too – the story could be “what if mccain has a heart attack.. HUCKABEE as President”.
Because that is EXACTLY why I predicted before Christmas that McCain would win the Presidency with Huckabee as Vice.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Choosing Condaleeza Rice as VP would send the message that women and blacks belong in a subordinate position.
Plus she’s already tainted by Bush’s incompetence.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
I believe they endorsed him
January 30th, 2008 at 10:00 pm
Do Romney and Huckabee like each other?
One says that American government is a place for Christians (he presumably includes Mormons in this group) and the other that Christian bible “law” should be the basis for government (which sort of confuses an earlier posture as “a grace rather than a law Christian”). It could be the finest hour of the Moral Majority Christian Coalition “war against secular society” – just one thing, the Mormon leadership issue that sort of faded away when Joseph Smith died way back in 1844, this while campaigning for the Presidency.
1844 was the great year of Manifest Destiny (Polk). 1844 was also the first USA occurence of a prophecy of a return of Christ to rule and reign over the earth in place of human government/democracy. While fringe back then, now most Americans believe their saviour will end their democracy and bring in his dictatorship and they pray “your kingdom come”. Which may explain much of the Bush dynasty behaviour – preparing the way for the end of constitutional and democratic government?
January 30th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Thanks for the comments re. Rudy. Amazing how interesting a thread can be without flame wars!
January 30th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
SPC: “Which may explain much of the Bush dynasty behaviour”
Bush doesn’t worship G-d SPC, despite what he professes and US fundies believe. You don’t have to look very closely at his behaviour to know that.
The Bush Christianity myth is/was one of three Rove-designed support demographics:
Zionist Israel-firsters
White trailer trash (why do you think a preppy frat-brat pretends to enjoy his ranch in Crawford?)
Fundamentalist Right-wing US Christians (as only they can be)
If he really is a Christian, why doesn’t he ever display love, humility, compassion? I mean real compassion for the human condition, like Ghandi or Mandela, not political bullshit like pretending to establish democracy in Iraq.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
One of the telling points for me about Bush and Christianity was when he was Governor, firstly when he mocked a women who’d applied for commutation of the death penalty, and secondly when I found out the only one of the 130 odd people who he commuted was none other than Henry Lee Lucas, one of the worst serial killers in US history. I thought to myself, of all people to pardon, why that one?
Draw your own conclusion.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
I have no reason to believe that his intent to establish a democracy in Iraq was not genuine. That said, it was a fools mission (and until the surge implementation was risbile) and on a fake WMD pretext which discredited the USA and in the end for no purpose.
What were the real motives – oil security, hate of a secular socialist regime, possibly a combination of both? Of course the vain hope it would begin a democratic domino effect across Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine was the way realpolitic was sold to the public.
The surge only works because everyone (barring al Qaeda) wants a respite while they await the policy of the next President in the USA (which may enable the civil war they are preparing for).
January 30th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Sorry just to clarify, he had 130 odd people presented for clemency, he only pardoned one.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Israeli security SPC?
January 30th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Most American Jews opposed any action in Iraq.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
So what? Do you think the neocons gave a shit?
January 30th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Neocons are idealogues. They had just come into power. They had an agenda. They executed it. We are witnessing the result.
January 30th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Sorry everybody, it’s getting a bit off topic, SPC happy to take it offline: email me at reid@infoworks.co.nz
January 30th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Choosing Condaleeza Rice as VP would send the message that women and blacks belong in a subordinate position.
Pete: Using that truly bizarre logic, it would slightly less “insulting” than being Secretary of State, and much less so than a sub-Cabinet position like National Security Advisor. To be honest, I don’t think its her gender or race that makes her truly unaccptable to the theo-con base. As far as I can tell, she’s far too moderate and doesn’t have the right networks to truly be ‘one of us’.
I believe they endorsed him
And what a truly bizarre piece of work it was – the NYTimes also endorsed Clinton, and I don’t see why they didn’t both ask the paper to withdraw them.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
SPC: “Hate of a secular socialist regime.” Is that how we describe Saddam Hussein these days? Seems a bit of revisionism going on there.
January 30th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
GNZ wrote:
You’re comparing the crime fighting, tax cutting, former U.S. attorney general, who is often dubbed ‘America’s Mayor’ for his leadership during 9/11… with that angry twat from Australia; Latham. You’re entitled to your opinion, but some perspective is needed!
emmess wrote:
Agreed. My dream ticket would’ve been Giuliani/Rice. But now that’s a pipe dream, I really like the sound of a Obama/Bloomberg ticket (if Bloomberg doesn’t run for President). According to Wikipedia Bloomberg talked with Obama in November.
Redbaiter wrote:
I’m relieved that there are some politicians you can stomach (Duncan Hunter & Bill English). Your answer also indicated you’ve libertarian leanings i.e. questioning why we even need politicians. No offence, but it’s sometimes hard to no where your stance given the cynicism in many of your posts.
Since I posted the question my favourite politicians are:
Dr Brash, Giuliani, John Key, & Tony Blair
Notable mention goes to:
Condoleezza Rice, David Cameron & John Howard
Everyone else Who are your favourite politicians from the recent past and present?
January 31st, 2008 at 12:55 am
For those lefties needing a chuckle, this thread is a lovely example of how the Republican party is tearing itself apart
http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog/g/d41a6e95-71f3-4d41-8f27-af3cc3aaa7cb&comments=true#commentAnchor
I’d advise Conservatives of a nervous disposition to not click the link!
January 31st, 2008 at 10:05 am
^ That could describe a leftie.
January 31st, 2008 at 11:27 am
Guiliani has pulled out so looks like it will be McCain. I was there when he tried out for 2000 and he was pretty much a big Yaaaaawwwwwnnn.
Oh well at least there’s still a bit of interest in following the democrats. Were’s Arnie when you need him eh?
BTW anyone misguided enough to think that the US left is anything like the NZ or European left (ie Anti-American) needs some serious therapy.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Sonic
Of course its all love and roses between Obama and Billary – the MSM always love a ‘Repubs self destructing’ theme when they only have to glance to their own side to see a juicy battle where the old hoary chesnuts of race, gender and age well represented. I can assure you Republicans are not self destructing.
McCain is a problematical person for Reagan Republicans because he has fought the party on so many occasions (anti the Bush tax cuts, sided with Dems to limit Bush’s appellate court nominees, sponsored campaign finance reform seen to benefit the left more, and sided with uber-liberal Kennedy on pro-amensty immigration law) and he does so with arrogance and nastiness. People like me had hoped that Romney was close enough to Reagan’s mix of social/fiscal/foreign policy conservatism. Its not over yet – most of the Super Tuesday races are not winner take all. Rommey won many of the key conservative demographs in FL and was only beaten at the 11th hour by the Crist endorsement and a nasty distortion of his comments by McCain that dominated the news cycle going into the primary. Until then, the RCP average of polls had Romney up by almost 2%.
Romney has far more money and on-the-ground support than McCain going into Super Tuesday so, whilst McCain has momentum, media publicity and endorsements, I would not give up on Romney just yet but undoubtedly the momentum favours McCain.
I see Fred as a more likely running mate than Huckabee or Guiliani and if McCain prevails, the bad blood between him and Romney means a VP slot is unlikely. Romney will go and serve another mission for his church is my bet.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Must burn you KIA seeing even the Republican party faithful reject your brand of conservatism.
January 31st, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Its not mine-its Reagan’s. If you add Huckabee’s 12% (mostly Evangelicals) to Romney’s 30% that easily beats McCains 35% so I wouldn’t call that a rejection Sonic
January 31st, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Nice logic KIA, although you may note that 42% is not a majority!
McCain is still going to be the nominee though (especially if he gets Gulliani’s) endorsement.
Then with a bit of luck he’ll lose!
January 31st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
You dont need a majority to win a primary Sonic – they are FPP. Not all Guiliani’s supporters want or like McCain in fact exit polls in FL showed Romney is their second preference and also Huckabee’s supporters 2nd preference.
So far the Rasmussen (most accurate poll over time) head to head as McCain 47 – Hillary 40 and Obama 41 so it will take a bit of luck.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Your the one that started adding figures together KIA, I was just pointing out the flaws in your logic.
It’s almost as funny as your assertion that viilent crime in the USA is lower than NZ, as long as you don’t count murder as a violent crime!
January 31st, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Paul L
SPC: “Hate of a secular socialist regime.” Is that how we describe Saddam Hussein these days? Seems a bit of revisionism going on there.
What is there to understand?
The capitalist USA hates the idea of nations with state ownership of the economy (why else the trade ban with Cuba and the conflict with Venezuala?) and the Republican party is becoming a vehicle for a Christian crusade against secular society worldwide. What defined Iraq as it was and what it has become, is the loss of state ownership of assets and the religious identity driven culture war politics – which re-makes Iraq in the image of the USA.
January 31st, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Anyone note the irony of the Kenyan democracy in meltdown while a grandson of Kenya runs for the office of leadership of the “free and democratic world”.
Would his election allow a change perception of the USA and an easier path to redemption for the “obnoxious” super power?