Goff denies coup
I couldn’t resist that headline after seeing Phil Goff denying on TV last night that he is plotting against Helen Clark. The old joke is that no coup is ever official until it is denied!
I stand by my opinion that there will be no move against Clark before the election – for two reasons. The first is the coup would not succeed – she has the numbers. The second is it could be a poisoned chalice. However you may start to see some positioning for post-election manoeuvres.
Post election could see Goff as Leader and Cunliffe as Finance. Who would be Deputy is harder to pick at this stage. King is an obvious choice but she may not plan to be around much longer.
John Armstrong writes in the Herald:
Life without Helen Clark? Labour’s abysmal showing in Saturday’s Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll will have the party’s MPs inevitably thinking the unthinkable – but only briefly…
Labour’s big fear is that should the leadership genie get well and truly out of the bottle, it will be impossible to stuff it back in.
It would be a disaster for Labour if Clark’s leadership, which has been seen as an electoral strength, suddenly became a weakness through continued speculation on possible coups and challenges.
There was obvious Beehive nervousness yesterday about the possibility of that happening, with Clark cutting short questions on the subject at her weekly post-Cabinet press conference…
Goff has made no impact on the polls despite being in Parliament for 24 of the past 27 years. The panic button will have to be well and truly pushed before the Labour caucus would opt for him as its potential saviour.
Better from his point of view to take over the leadership after the election than before – presuming he can muster the numbers. Goff knows the score. He was a Cabinet minister before the 1990 election when Mike Moore ousted Sir Geoffrey Palmer just eight weeks before the nation voted.
I think under MMP MPs are less likely to panic also. Under FPP an MP was toast if they lost their seat, so they would sell their grandmother down the river if it increased their chance of survival. But with MMP over half the Caucus are guaranteed to keep their seats even if the result is as low as 25%, so you don’t have the same self preservation instinct over-riding all reason.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:11 am
I wonder what the Labour Party will be like when they get thumped in the election, and Helen gets rolled – she will at least win her electorate seat, so if she gets rolled and then quits it will cause a by-election, but imagine if she stays – the new leader would have to put up with her caustic tongue until the next election! I for one would think she wouldnt look to kindly at a knife being shoved in her back.
Edit: Oooooo we can edit comments now!!!!!!! Loving the new site DPF!
February 26th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Bevan – “there is never room for two heads who have known the weight of the crown” – Machiavelli (paraphrased slightly).
There is no way that she would be allowed to stay when she does go. As you said, that “caustic tongue” would just be too hard to handle and aside from this, would take some spotlight away from a new leader when a complete new start would be needed.
Look for her to resign citing a long history in New Zealand Politics and a desire for new challenges (read UN Posts) and spending more time with the family.
Bets anyone that the speech will include all three of these points?
February 26th, 2008 at 9:32 am
The problem people with egos like Clark’s face is that eventually they are too clever for their own good.
Her exit strategies are all heading down the gurgler.
Sure she will head off to some cushy number but she will leave a Labour party in tatters.
Which makes you think that it has only ever been ” all about Helen” from day one.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Under FPP, all the MP candidates had to worry about was the electorate selection. Under MMP, there is the added conflict of working out the party list. Labour tried to calm troubled waters in 2005 by keeping the incumbent MPs in the top list places. What happens this year might cause a little more aggravation, even with half a dozen sitting MPs retiring. Expect to see a few grandmothers on TradeMe.
February 26th, 2008 at 9:46 am
It beats me that New Zealanders can’t see that they have been lumbered with a very corrupt government, led by Helen Clark?
February 26th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Goff has too much baggage. As possible alternative is Cunliffe with ‘Wide Boy’ Jones as the Deputy (reaching out to Maori and all that) … only problem is that both are from Labour’s right wing.
But I also think the speculation is a tad too early for the reasons that DPF has blogged.
February 26th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Cunliffe is next .
February 26th, 2008 at 11:59 am
If Clark has the numbers now and Goff doesn’t, do you REALLY think that there is any chance that a majority of Labour MP’s AFTER the election, will be Goff supporters? Come ON, man. Look at the Party List order……….
February 26th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
And do you think there is a limit on what Clark and Co would do to stay in power? DO YOU KNOW that everyone in the electoral system is beyond reproach and that any skullduggery WILL be exposed. WILL the NZ Police investigate and prosecute? On what do you base your confidence, pray tell?
February 26th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
If Clark has the numbers now and Goff doesn’t, do you REALLY think that there is any chance that a majority of Labour MP’s AFTER the election, will be Goff supporters? Come ON, man. Look at the Party List order……….
Then all does bode well for Labour spending a very very long time in opposition! Im giddy at the prospect!
February 26th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Has nobody remembered that the wimmin’s left wing movement still exists strongly within the “Wellington parliamentary beltway”. You can bet that our “Organ Grinder” and her “Monkey” will still have a say.
Tamahere is to be remembered for his true comments.
It is beholden to Labour parliamentarians to elect a woman (and a homosexual to keep strictly politically correct) as deputy, so once again I nominate ex Labour Party President Marian Street. She didn’t go into politics to be sidelined in the new Labour future.