Record numbers leaving
The latest migration statistics highlight the exodus from New Zealand.
In 2007, a total of 77,081 Kiwis left permamently or long-term – at least a 10 year high.
Looking just as Australia there were 13,636 people moving from Australia to NZ, but a massive 41,634 went from NZ to Australia. That is now 800 people a week or 114 people every day of the year.
The net migration to Australia has skyrocketed a massive 35% from 2006 to 2007. Up from 20,709 to 27,998, which is a 20 year high.
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February 4th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Just wait. If Labour (somehow) gets its claws into a 4th term, they’ll have to come up with a bigger word than ’skyrocket’ to describe the increase in people leaving.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Given the free advertising campaign the right are running for Australia, is this any surprise?
February 4th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
What more can anyone say that hasn’t been said over and over and over? The Socialists sink ever deeper into denial. “Denial is a river in Wellington”.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
1988 – Labour in power but about to get their arses kicked
2007 – Labour in power and getting their arses kicked
anyone see a pattern emerging here?
perhaps along with banning everything else, we should be banning the labour party from holding office…
February 4th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
That is now 800 people a week or 114 people every day of the year.
Who are these people? I only know two people who have permanently moved to Australia in the last few years. (And a dozen or so who have moved and come back.)
Is it an Auckland thing?
February 4th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
The figures are for “permanent or long-term” — i.e. 12 months or more. I know lots of people who have popped over the ditch for a year, or who have used Oz as the start of their OE.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Has there been any overt move by the National Party to exploit this demographic disaster ? I suspect a majority of those leaving for Australia would vote against this wretched Labour-led government. I emigrated to London in 1984 and made a point of voting there to do my bit to get Muldoon voted out – are not these emigres fertile support ground for the National Party ? What a disaster this emigration is for NZ – the loss of our best and brightest and most energetic, and youth – all the emigres to Oz I know are young. For Labour this is very bad news indeed – am I surprised the MSM does not give this demographic blood-bath the attention it deserves ? The people have been voting for this government for years now, the election has been in operation for ages – they vote with their feet.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Seamonkey Madness says: “Just wait. If Labour (somehow) gets its claws into a 4th term, they’ll have to come up with a bigger word than ’skyrocket’ to describe the increase in people leaving.”
It’s actually worse than that. If Labour gets a fourth term, there is a real risk they could close the border. As a “temporary measure” of course. Just while wages “adjust”.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Probably not. Special votes tend towards the parties on the left.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I just ran the percentages on those numbers weighing in the population estimates of both countries; the numbers are frightening.
In 2007 only 0.065% Of the Australian population moved from there to here.
And a massive 0.99% of our population went the opposite direction.
I am aware that this is actually a very complicated equation once you factor emigration and immigration to other countries into the mix, but for the purposes of my point I am going to assume that because we are close neighbours allot of that is cancelled out anyway.
This leaves emigration to Australia Vs immigration from it at a massive 15:1 per capita. That is frightening.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Hemi said …..
“Who are these people? I only know two people who have permanently moved to Australia in the last few years. (And a dozen or so who have moved and come back.)
Is it an Auckland thing?”
Don’t think so hemi, I imagine that they are actually all the people who voted in favour of MMP ‘cos I can’t find any of those either (or at least anyone who cares to admit to it)
February 4th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
What is equally frightening is how absolutely apparent it is that Labour simply has no answers.
They have been feeding us the line of how great things are here, but with the age of the internet people are realising how much better things could be. Having failed to bring in the regulatory changes that would have ensured we had a fighting chance to keep abreast with Australia, they now avert their gaze and focus on what’s really important – staying in power.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Probably not. Special votes tend towards the parties on the left.
Do they? Could you point me at some stats? I was under the impression they tend towards parties on the right, what with them coming from people wealthy enough to move overseas.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Ryan – as I understand things, domestic special votes for people turning up at the wrong polling booth because they are too stupid to know which electorate they live in tend to go to Labour, whereas overseas special votes tend to favour National.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Ryan I don’t think the majority of people are moving for an extended holiday more likely they scrape together their relocation costs, and take a massive gamble that they can make a better life overseas. Don’t forget the revolviong door – number of immigrants who use NZ as a staging post for their eventual jump to Oz, as was their original strategy when they duped NZIS into accepting their original application into NZ.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
2005’s special votes resulted in one less seat for National. Not sure how it breaks down in terms of out of town vs. out of country.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
more likely they scrape together their relocation costs, and take a massive gamble that they can make a better life overseas.
Or in our case, the great Kiwi clobbering machine which meant that the organisation my husband worked for in NZ wouldn’t give him a promotion to match what he could get in Australia, so I ended up leaving my job, and we all moved to Australia so that he could take up a very senior position here. Two highly educated adults, and three children adding to those emigration stats. Who knows if we will ever be back?
February 4th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
Unless Key does have a hidden agenda (I pray that he does) things are not going to change, thousands and thousands will continue to leave NZ under Clark and Labour and the same will leave under Key and Labour lite.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
John Middleton who was told by Michael Cullen to “please join them”, speaks out.
John has written an article for http://www.nzdebate.blogspot.com
February 4th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Big Bruv – Key seems to have a vision for a better place – that distinguishes him from all other pollies in NZ. Time will tell as to how well he can articulate it and then get the PM job. For me with 3 sprogs aged 10 and below this is a critical election as to where we end up as a family. Aust looms large for practical reasons rather than any great desire to be there. The same applies to friends with kids in the same age bracket. And Yes – we are jaffas but I have a bunch of relatives in the SI who have all gone to Aust rather than move to Auck – it seems to be a lesser evil for them.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
As I’ve said before, young people are not leaving solely because of wages but because they think NZ is boring and want to see the world. You can ignore this all you want, but I don’t think the election of a National Government is going to solve that problem any time soon.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Casual
I agree that NZ will be a better place under Key, it would be impossible for it to get any worse.
My point is that his policies are center left at best, what we need is more traditional national party.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
People who voluntarily emigrate tend to do so for a better life and prospects. They are optimists and are future looking. They want their children to do well. They are often disillusioned with their native land. They have enough income to land on their feet and sustain themselves. They are often snapped up for employment or have a job already arranged. Kiwis living in Australia have a lower unemployment rate than people born in Australia. This is the perfect description of a typical National Voter. They probably don’t take part in special voting as they have chosen to make their destiny in a new land’.
Labour gets its support from the visionless, dispirited left behinds who are stuck in a lemming like voting pattern. Labour gets its support from the unemployed, the work shy thousands in growing numbers who are encouraged to claim a sickness benefit and those with the lack of intelligence to head for Australia.
No wonder John Key wants to attract KIwis home and Labour wants them to leave in droves.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Of course you could also say that 99% of the New Zealand population didn’t move to Australia last year or that the difference between people arriving and leaving New Zealand (on a permanent basis) was a GAIN of 5500. But then again that would not be spinning the figures to make it look like people were leaving the country en-mass.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
…it would be impossible for it to get any worse.
Impossible?
February 4th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Yes it could get worse but we all know what will happen if it gets worse. Departure tax will increase to about $5,000 per person. Perfect Labour party solution – attack the symptom rather than the cause.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
big bruv – Key is being pragmatic and showing considerably more subtlety than Brash did. Brash had the job but lost it and haven’t we paid the price. That suggests that “traditional Nat party” doesn’t work any more – not for the electorate anyway. That may change if Key gets in and people can see the benefit and improvement in change – even if it is a “watered down” version of your ideal.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
How many people leaving for Australia where born in NZ? i.e. are immigrants using NZ as a stepping stone to Australia?
Also, is there a breakdown by adults/children? It is families that are moving, or young people embarking on their OE?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
george: a more charitable interpretation is that those who are young and move houses a lot are often Labour voters. I like your explanation more, but it probably isn’t entirely true.
Rocket Boy: got a source/link for those numbers? What are you leaving out?
SPC: Going new and interesting places will always be a drawcard. But people used to come home. What changed?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Before anyone else books their tickets, take a good look at the reality.
Certainly incomes are better – vastly so in many sectors – but the cost of living (particularly short-sighted interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank and the cost of fuel) is predicted to send 300,000 Australians to the wall this year and leave 750,000 in dire financial straights (according to ABC TV news last night).
Meanwhile “luxury car sales surged 21per cent in Queensland last year, with $80,000-plus sports cars up 58 per cent. Demand for exotic brands, such as Maserati, are expected to double this year”.
So it seems it’s great for some (cashed up young singles on high incomes) but not the paradise it’s painted for others, specially families where the breadwinner isn’t employed in the resources sector or as a tradesperson.
On my own personal prosperity measure, I’m taking my lunch to work each morning for the first time since I started working here.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
“but not the paradise it’s painted for others, specially families where the breadwinner isn’t employed in the resources sector or as a tradesperson.”
But if you are a tradesman or a cashed up young single…
February 4th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Rex, it is mixed as everywhere, but unemployment is low, and those with a bit of get up and go can make good money.
My usual feel is that someone who immigrates probably isn’t looking at the average income. The people who get off their backsides and immigrate usually also turn out to be the sort of people you want to employ – if they are prepared to move their whole life to get ahead, they are usually capable of making decisions and acting on them, and motivated to work hard.
I have a number of friends in Australia, and all are better off financially than they would be in NZ. And they live in a place with a better climate (but no water) and more of a can do attitude.
Most of the analysis that I have seen from NZ-based commentators is pretty shallow on the actual relative costs and taxes – the Australian tax system is fiendishly complicated and many people in NZ are completely unaware of some of the major credits such as family tax benefit and childcare tax rebate.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
“Please join them” was Michael Cullen’s response when John Middleton expressed his concern about the exodus of young Kiwis to Australia. John Middleton speaks out exclusively to http://www.nzdebate.blogspot.com
February 4th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Further, that Aus interest rate is still substantially below NZ’s, so hardly a reason not to move…
February 4th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I could not find this information on the stats site so please excuse me if I missed it.
I would be interested in a breakdown of those who leave for the following:
Ethnic background.
Previous income.
Previous provincial location.
Previous occupation.
Are they leaving with a partner or family.
The number of those leaving, while important, is only one dimension of the problem.
Who and why they are leaving are questions that must surly be asked of those leaving, I would have thought.
If those questions are asked of the people leaving, where might I find this information?
February 4th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Hemi – I don’t think it is just an Auckland thing. I personally knowm about a dozen who have gone to Oz in the past few years, of which six were friends of mine. Half my friends who have gone are Maori and they are all doing so much better over in Oz than here. One dropped IT and works in a labouring job and is making more than he made here in NZ. The other went from labouring here to driving a bobcat in Oz and is making way more than I make. Other people I know are families. Apart from one friend who went as part of a promotion, the others have all gone on spec to get away from NZ.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
In 1987 it was to get a job, now it’s for the money.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
SPC
I don’t suppose it is any coincidence that in 87 and 08 we had/have a Labour govt?
February 4th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Who are these people?
Me, for one. I left New Zealand to start a business with a friend in Melbourne. My wife is taking the opportunity to ditch call centre management and train as a commercial helicopter pilot.
February 4th, 2008 at 7:51 pm
I know a lot of people from the South Island that have left. Some will come back, but most intend to stay. All were in IT or trades.
Also of more concern is a lot of immigrants who came here under skilled work permits and have attained citzenship are now leaving for Oz with no intention of coming back.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Ethnic background
Why so interested in race?
February 4th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
What are you all worried about, heard Dear Leader on the radio and she’s not worried, in fact it would probably be safe to say she couldn’t give a rats toss.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
NZ is a provincial little place, with a vastly over-inflated sense of how fabulous it is.
go overseas and see what the rest of the world is like, and suddenly NZ is quite as great as we’re all led to believe. no wonder younger people are moving once they get a taste of something a bit more interesting, and better paid
February 4th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Side show bob,
Of course dear leader is not worried. The people are voting with their feet.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Shes not worried because the ones leaving have jobs and are more likely to vote National. The biigger the migration to Oz the higher her chance of re-election.
Mike S I’ve travelled around the world and putting aside the current Govt, from a place to live NZ is hard to beat.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
PaulL ‘Rocket Boy: got a source/link for those numbers? What are you leaving out?’
40,000 people left NZ to go to Australia, NZ population is 4M that makes it 1% of the population. Therefore 99% of the population did not move to Australia.
The population gain last year of 5500 is from the Herald website:
‘The overall 5500 net migrant gain for the year ended December was below the annual average of 11,800 recorded for the December years from 1990-2007, SNZ said.
But overall long-term arrivals were down just 200 on the December 2006 year to 82,600, while the 77,100 long-term departures were up 9000.’
February 4th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
For starters there is no more interest in that than any of the other stats i asked about.
I believe all of it is relevant.
I hope you are not trying to start some sort of racial game playing as that would be silly and misguided.
Everything is relevant if it helps to find root causes.
February 4th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
has there been some banning going on? where are tane, sonic, phillipjohn et al turning up to threadjack, change the subject, play the man, and otherwise try and convince us that all is good with the labour government.
Could it be that the next wave of talking points haven’t been emailed out yet? Or maybe they got emailed to a national electorate office too?
c’mon somebody – at least make a token effort – how about the median number of people leaving has remained constant, therefore there is nothing to see here?
February 4th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
i see Rocket boy is trying, what with only 1% of the population leaving in a year, no issues there, perfectly normal.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
tdfkan6888 -
maybe they’ve taken the hint and fucked off to Aussie (or Myanmar…I’d buy them a ticket there, and a T-shirt that read ‘Up Your Junta!’ and then tip off Burmese immigration)
February 4th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Oh yes, Helen is saying we’re getting skilled people in from other countries to replace our losses.
Yep, doctors trained in India working as taxi drivers…
rocket scientists from Iran working as…taxi drivers…
February 4th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
They probably got sick of blogging with the great unwashed.
With luck, the washed have gone to oz.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Should result in a fast and safe taxi service.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
nigel6888 where have they gone! don’t you know it is formal Stalinist policy to purge those whose fault it is for the failures of the state. Obviously they were wreckers
February 4th, 2008 at 10:25 pm
People (myself included) were banned for asking questions about Labour party servers being used by the standard, then one of their chief attack poodles give this nonchalant acknowledgment.
http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=1018#comment-16387
I suspect the attack poodles (of the left) have some serious wound licking to do and can’t take the sound of laughing so are having a rest.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
burt – unfortunately they left john dalley behind. obviously he’s not on their A list.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
John Dalley
Can you define which group you identify in NZ when you use the term ‘washed’. Clearly you don’t want them around and it might enlighten us on your world view if we knew who you were talking about.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Welcome to globalisation.
Let’s face it, most of that record number is immigrants who do their 5 years here then move to enjoy the better pay thanks to the strong union movement in Aussie. If the Nats hadn’t massively slashed wages and conditions in the 1990s, we would be level-pegging.
NZ businesses are also partially to blame- they don’t give any opportunity or training to school and university grads because “they’ll just bugger off overseas”. Many grads feel so pissed off by this rejection they never come back…
February 4th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
uk_kiwi
How far back do you go with union participation rates and economic productivity, just back to the failed policies of the 90’s or shall we go back to the environment that created the 80’s all over again by saying it was caused by what it forced in the 90’s as we repeat our mistakes.
September 19th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Those are some wicked stats. I wonder what New Zealand is doing wrong. I think its pretty much everything especially as I was one of those people moving to Australia. So I created an ebook about moving to Australia and all the things that you need to do. It’s like creating a new identity. Anyway check it out.