The Marae DigiPoll

March 3rd, 2008 at 1:25 pm by David Farrar

All the media are full of the news that the latest Marae DigiPoll had the Maori Party ahead in all seven Maori seats.  But people should be aware of the very small sample sizes when you break it down into each electorate.

A helpful journalist has passed on the full data released by Marae/DigiPoll so I’m able to go into some detail on the results.

Party Vote

First let us look at the consolidated results for the sample of 1,003 Maori with 665 on the Maori roll and 338 on the general roll. This has a margin of error of 3.1%:

On the party vote,  the Maori Party is 38% and Labour 37%, followed by National on 15%.

Breaking into the two rolls, the margin of error is 3.9% for the Maori roll and 5.4% for the General Roll.

On the Maori Roll the party vote is 49% Maori Party, 33% Labour and 9% National. On the General Roll the vote is 11% Maori Party, 46% Labour and 29% National.

Now note that the proportions of Maori on the Maori and General roll are not actually 2/3 to 1/3.  The last Maori Option found 58% of Maori chose to be on the Maori roll and 42% on the General roll.  If you apply those percentages to the separate party vote for the general and Maori rolls, then the weighted party vote for all adult Maori would be Maori Party 33%, Labour 38% and National 17%.

Electorate Vote

Those on the Maori Roll were asked their electorate vote preference, in terms of party affiliation. 56% chose Maori Party over 28% Labour.

But it gets less clear when you break it down into the seven seats. 665 respondents over seven seats is an average of 95 per seat which is a whopping margin of error of 10.3%.

But that is not to say one can’t take some indications from the results. You can calculate for each electorate what the probability is that the leading candidate is in fact ahead of the other candidate.  Going through the seven electorates, we have the Maori Party result followed by the Labour Party result:

1. Te Tai Tokerau – 58% to 22% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
2. Tamaki Makarau – 53% to 27% – 99.9% probability Maori Party leads
3. Tainui – 45% to 37% – 80.6% probability Maori Party leads
4. Te Tai Hauarau – 69% to 22% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
5. Waiariki – 60% to 25% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
6. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – 54% to 31% – 99.4% probability Maori Party leads
7. Te Tai Tonga – 50% to 33% – 96.8% probability Maori Party leads

The Maori Party, beyond doubt, is leading in the four seats it currently holds. There is a greater than 95% chance that it is leading in Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga – and hence well placed to pick them up.

The one which is less certain is Tainui. There is a significant 20% probability that Labour actually leads in that seat. You really need a larger poll sample when the result is that close.

However one factor which may help the Maori Party is that the boundaries for Tainui have changed and are now less favourable for Labour in the new seat of Hauraki-Waikato. So that makes it a bit harder for Nanaia Mahuta to hold her seat.

My overall conclusion is that the Maori Party look well placed to win six out of seven seats, and the seventh seat is too close to call but leans Maori Party.

Other Issues

Satisfaction ratings for all respondents:

1. PM Helen Clark – 60% satisfied to 38% not satisfied
2. Government – 54% to 38%
3. Labour Maori MPs – 57% to 37%
4. Maori Party MPs – 76% to 18%
5. National Party Maori MPs – 44% to 41%

The most important issues for Maori on the Maori roll are Education 16%, Treaty Issues 14%, Health 11%, Tax Cuts 9% and Law & Order 8%.

For Maori on the general roll, is is Health 18%, Tax Cuts 16%, Law & Order  12%, Education 9% and Treaty Issues 3%.

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25 Responses to “The Marae DigiPoll”

1. roger nome (4,067) Says:

I think this is conclusive proof that the Maori Party will prefer to form a post-election agreement with Labour rather than National. i.e. Labour get 37% of the party vote amongst Maori, where as National get just 15% – meaning that many Maori would be alienated by a Maori party agreement with the National Party (btw has any one got figures on which party Maori Party voters actually prefer?). Will be interesting to see how people like LeeC (who have argued in the past that the Maori Party would prefer a post-election agreement with National over Labour) try to spin these figures.

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2. Johnboy (10,729) Says:

Audrey Young today states that of Maori Party supporters 57.1% prefer a coalition with Labour and 42.9% with National. Not a great margin of difference.

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3. boomtownprat (281) Says:

Nome says…”I think this is conclusive proof that the Maori Party will prefer to form a post-election agreement with Labour”

Don’t think it as clear cut as you suggest Nome.

This from the herald article.

“it also shows that New Zealand First supporters have a strong preference for a coalition with National over Labour (90 per cent v 9.1 per cent) and that Maori Party supporters are not overwhelmingly disposed to a Labour deal – 57.1 per cent of Maori Party supporters would favour a deal with Labour, but 42.9 per cent would favour a deal with National.”

Assuming Moari party will go with labour, could be the mother of an electoral fuck up.

Remember Last cab, wreckers and haters, i’d rather catch a bike. Remember Hone calling Labours EFB hypocritical and a desperate attempt to cling onto power

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4. emmess (1,178) Says:

The thing I find interesting in this Maori seat polls
If the Maori party is polling about 33% of Maori and Maori are 15% of the general population. Shouldn’t the Maori party be polling around 5% in the general polls

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5. Bevan (3,951) Says:

Nome, the numbers in the poll in the Herald this morning stated, when asked who Maori Party supporters would rather the Maori Pary form a coalition with, the numbers were Labour 57.1% and National 42.9%.

Hardly done and dusted that the Maori Party would turn a cold sholder to National if they were offered a chance to negotiate. And you can bet that Turia and Sharples will vividly remember the terms used by Ms Clark at the last election.

Edit: Looks like three of us read the Herald, and Nome didnt bother….

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6. Bryce Edwards (248) Says:

The most interesting opinion poll result to come out in regard to the Maori Party is definitely the one that showed that 43% of Maori Party voters prefer a coalition with the National Party (as also noted above by boomtownprat). Many commentators (especially on the left) presume that the huge majority of Maori Party support is pro-Labour and they all favour a deal with National. The latest poll actually says that only 57% favour going with Labour against 43% who favour National – not an overwhelming difference.

DPF has already dealt with the possibility of a National-Maori Party post-election deal, but for what it’s worth, I’ve written a lengthy analysis on this issue in a post entitled “Why the Maori and National parties fit together”:

Bryce

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7. Johnboy (10,729) Says:

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8. dave (968) Says:

I think this is conclusive proof that the Maori Party will prefer to form a post-election agreement with Labour rather than National
Hardly. Thats like saying that a smacking poll showing 57.1 percent of Labour supporters think that parents should smack their kids is conclusive proof that most Labour MPs will vote for a bill giving parents that option.

Given that 57.1% of Maori Party supporters want a coalition with Labour, and 42.9% with National., this poll is merely an indication that just over half Maori voters would prefer the Maori Party to form a post election agreement with Labour – but the Maori Party may prefer to form a post-election agreement with National given that more than 40 percent of its supporters want this.

And given that National Party will be the next government the only coalition option for the Maori Party will be National.

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9. boomtownprat (281) Says:

Bryce Edwards article demonstrates why the relationship between Maori, National and Labour is not as “conclusive” as those on the left clearly take for granted.

The key points seem to be National, ACT and Maoris common ground, re property rights (F&S)
Significant conservative elements within the Maori Party.
A strong sense of the betrayl of Maori by labour.

He says Turiana favours a deal with National (something i have heard from other sources also), but the party on the cross benches is the most likely outcome.

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10. pete (424) Says:

But people should be aware of the very small sample sizes when you break it down into each electorate

Unless you think the results in each electorate are uncorrelated, you’re overstating the margin of error when you do this.

(Further nit-picking: unless you’re doing a Bayesian analysis, those are confidences, not probabilities. And you should probably be saying “>99.99″ (or however many 9′s you need), since “100%” has certain connotations.)

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11. pete (424) Says:

National, ACT and Maoris common ground, re property rights (F&S)

I seem to recall National taking a slightly different stance on the Foreshore and Seabed issue. (I was very impressed by ACT’s principled stand on the F&S).

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12. boomtownprat (281) Says:

“I seem to recall National taking a slightly different stance on the Foreshore and Seabed issue. (I was very impressed by ACT’s principled stand on the F&S).”

Yeah they did, but looks like that may change! No surprises there

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13. gd (2,286) Says:

IMHO If the Nats get a good result I could see the Maori party deciding to support them on an isssue by issue basis and agreeing to abstain on supply just to see how it goes in the first term.

If the MP can deliver to its voters via a Nat lead government then perhaps in a second term should the Nats be successful again we could see a stronger relationship with perhaps a MP Minsiter of Maori Affairs and a junior post in one of the social portfolios.

I wouldnt right off a MP Nat relationship The MP leaders are going to have to start delivering to their people Standing outside the tent pissing in aint as effective as being inside the tent pissing out

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14. dave (968) Says:

..ah that depends which way the wind is blowing…..

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Jane Clifton has a good article today in the latest edition of The Listener where she points out that under MMP Labour could still get back in, if it cobbles together support, eg Maori abstain on confidence the Greens do likewise and NZ for Winnie and United with Dunne sign up as before. Just because the polls say Winnie’s voters prefer National means nothing.

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16. Dismal Soyanz (58) Says:

The Maori Party have an electorate incentive to team up with Labour. However, much will depend on what firm promises they can get out Labour. Given that the Maori Party has a tendency to be quite firm on key issues, they may drive a very hard bargain. If a Labour-led coalition is seen as too fragile, they may opt for a more stable alternative and go with National. It is perhaps trite to say but I will: the Maori Party are likely to keep their cards close to their chest until the final numbers are counted in the general seats.

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17. TimeWarp (16) Says:

Johnboy +5 Says:

March 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
“Audrey Young today states that of Maori Party supporters 57.1% prefer a coalition with Labour and 42.9% with National. Not a great margin of difference.”

So I guess Clark and Labour are marginally trailing Key and National respectively in the polls?

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18. Southern Raider (1,317) Says:

You would have hoped that Law & Order would have been higher up the importance list.

Its not like they’re over represented in the statistics or anything?

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19. slightlyrighty (2,246) Says:

I see that TV3 has their poll out tonite and shows Nats with a healthy lead and the numbers to govern alone if these results were translated in to election results. This poll mirrors well with other results, and with the other result which is the PM dismissing the poll for various reasons.

How many polls will it take for Helen Clark to publically realise that she’s toast at the moment?

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20. kehua (225) Says:

It is now some months since I said that Georgina Te HeuHeu should start talking with Turia and Flavell. If The Maori party cross over to Australia and campaign I believe that Nationals support for Party Vote would be quite a bit stronger, perhaps a bi-partisan approach to all the cuzzies in Aus could do wonders for both parties, after all many Maori in Aus are really financial refugees because of Labours Failed policies.

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21. Southern Raider (1,317) Says:

Good point Kehua. 400,000 kiwis didn’t shift across the ditch because they wanted to go backwards in life.

The message has to be if you ever want to come home, give us your vote so that there will be a place worth coming back to.

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22. freethinker (590) Says:

I noted when Paul Henery interviewed her Ugliness Queer Helen the Last she correctly pointed out the small sample made the results lack credibility but took comfort in the fact they demonstrated a Maori preference for Helen as preferred PM, double standards again.

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23. PhilBest (5,060) Says:

ABSOLUTELY, Kehua and Southern Raider. Maori across the ditch are a success story. I was talking to an Aussie employer recently who said how much Maori workers were appreciated over there……….

Throwing money at under-achievement, as the socialists love to do, isn’t helping, is it?

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24. grumpyoldhori (2,345) Says:

Amusing how many believe that the majority of Maori are
screaming left wingers.
I am tribally Labour, but not the Labour party of Helen Clarke.

Let us not forget that the majority of horis across the ditch
went over when the Nats were in power.

As for the Maori party, sit on the cross benchs, bugger that,
they can do more good for all in a coalition, if it is with the
Nats, so be it.

Hmm, Hone as minister of foreign affairs, well someone needs to
keep an eye on our colony of West New Zealand.

Has the average Aussie IQ reached seventy yet ? what with
all those kiwis going over.

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25. keithng (22) Says:

Nice. For bonus points, can you please give us the Maori Party’s lead in each electorate at a 95% confidence level?

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