All the media are full of the news that the latest Marae DigiPoll had the Maori Party ahead in all seven Maori seats. But people should be aware of the very small sample sizes when you break it down into each electorate.
A helpful journalist has passed on the full data released by Marae/DigiPoll so I’m able to go into some detail on the results.
First let us look at the consolidated results for the sample of 1,003 Maori with 665 on the Maori roll and 338 on the general roll. This has a margin of error of 3.1%:
On the party vote, the Maori Party is 38% and Labour 37%, followed by National on 15%.
Breaking into the two rolls, the margin of error is 3.9% for the Maori roll and 5.4% for the General Roll.
On the Maori Roll the party vote is 49% Maori Party, 33% Labour and 9% National. On the General Roll the vote is 11% Maori Party, 46% Labour and 29% National.
Now note that the proportions of Maori on the Maori and General roll are not actually 2/3 to 1/3. The last Maori Option found 58% of Maori chose to be on the Maori roll and 42% on the General roll. If you apply those percentages to the separate party vote for the general and Maori rolls, then the weighted party vote for all adult Maori would be Maori Party 33%, Labour 38% and National 17%.
Those on the Maori Roll were asked their electorate vote preference, in terms of party affiliation. 56% chose Maori Party over 28% Labour.
But it gets less clear when you break it down into the seven seats. 665 respondents over seven seats is an average of 95 per seat which is a whopping margin of error of 10.3%.
But that is not to say one can’t take some indications from the results. You can calculate for each electorate what the probability is that the leading candidate is in fact ahead of the other candidate. Going through the seven electorates, we have the Maori Party result followed by the Labour Party result:
- Te Tai Tokerau – 58% to 22% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
- Tamaki Makarau – 53% to 27% – 99.9% probability Maori Party leads
- Tainui – 45% to 37% – 80.6% probability Maori Party leads
- Te Tai Hauarau – 69% to 22% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
- Waiariki – 60% to 25% – 100% probability Maori Party leads
- Ikaroa-Rawhiti – 54% to 31% – 99.4% probability Maori Party leads
- Te Tai Tonga – 50% to 33% – 96.8% probability Maori Party leads
The Maori Party, beyond doubt, is leading in the four seats it currently holds. There is a greater than 95% chance that it is leading in Ikaroa-Rawhiti and Te Tai Tonga – and hence well placed to pick them up.
The one which is less certain is Tainui. There is a significant 20% probability that Labour actually leads in that seat. You really need a larger poll sample when the result is that close.
However one factor which may help the Maori Party is that the boundaries for Tainui have changed and are now less favourable for Labour in the new seat of Hauraki-Waikato. So that makes it a bit harder for Nanaia Mahuta to hold her seat.
My overall conclusion is that the Maori Party look well placed to win six out of seven seats, and the seventh seat is too close to call but leans Maori Party.
Satisfaction ratings for all respondents:
- PM Helen Clark – 60% satisfied to 38% not satisfied
- Government – 54% to 38%
- Labour Maori MPs – 57% to 37%
- Maori Party MPs – 76% to 18%
- National Party Maori MPs – 44% to 41%
The most important issues for Maori on the Maori roll are Education 16%, Treaty Issues 14%, Health 11%, Tax Cuts 9% and Law & Order 8%.
For Maori on the general roll, is is Health 18%, Tax Cuts 16%, Law & Order 12%, Education 9% and Treaty Issues 3%.Tags: Labour, Maori Party, Maori Seats, National, Polls