What seats will Labour be left with?
As to be expected under MMP, most focus in on the party vote. But electorates are also important to parties. It hurt Labour badly to lose 10 seats to National in 2005.
Currently National and Labour have 31 seats each. And they got almost the same share of the electorate vote in 2005 – 40.38% for National and 40.35% for Labour.
Now seats never quite fall in a linear way, but one can apply a linear swing to majorities, to get some idea of what seats may fall to National if the current polls continue.
The last Colmar Brunton poll has the electorate vote for National at 48% and for Labour at 35%. This is a relative increase in National’s EV of 19% and a relative drop for Labour of 13%.
So which seats (new boundaries have been taken into account) would on paper go to National, if that was the linear swing on the electorate vote?
- Auckland Central (Tizard) by 160 votes
- Hamilton West (Gallagher) by 3,501 votes
- New Plymouth (Duynhoven) by 1 (yes 1) vote
- Otaki (Hughes) by 5,155 votes
- Palmerston North by 506 votes
- Rotorua (Chadwick) by 4,558 votes
- Taupo (Burton) by 5,700 votes
- West Coast-Tasman (O’Connor) by 3,274 votes
That would reduce Labour to 23 seats. But a Marae Digi-poll out on Sunday had the Maori Party ahead in all seven Maori seats. If they pick up the other three, then Labour would be down to just 20 electorate seats out of 70.
So is that the worse case scenario? Well no. This is based on a poll which has National ahead of Labour by just 13% in the EV. The previous CB poll had Nat 55% EV and Lab 33%. If that (unlikely) result had a linear application, how many more seats would fall:
- Hutt South (Mallard)
- Mana (Laban)
- Maungakiekie
- Port Hills (Dyson)
- Waimakariri (Cosgrove)
Also Rimutaka and Waitakere (Pillay) get reduced to under 500 vote majorities for Labour. If they also got taken on a bad swing, Labour would be reduced to 13 electorate seats.
Now these are not predictions by any means – it is just a linear application of poll results. There is no way anyone will be winning Otaki by 5,000 votes. I expect Nathan Guy and Darren Hughes to have a very close contest. They are both good MPs. The retirement of Steve Maharey might make Palmerston North very interesting.
Labour will have an interesting challenge with their list rankings. They want to rejuvenate and have some new MPs after the election. So one might expect they won’t automatically put sitting MPs at the top of the list. However if they do not protect sitting MPs, then quite a few of them could end up out of Parliament.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 am
no wonder the Labour MPs and their staffers are so grumpy.
The wheels have lost all their bearings and a full collapse is only one little pothole away.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 am
I wish you would not say certain results are “unlikely”. I ask why not?? If in politics concede you will not win something then you can be sure it will be the case. I know you try and take a middle path in these things so I will accept you can say those things even without much analysis. But those of us who support the National party are wanting a result that crushes Labour for a very considerable period of time so every electorate seat is up for grabs by National or the Maori Party. And if Dunne does not withdraw confidence and supply from Labour very soon, then his seat can fall to National as well.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Then don’t forget the effect of individual MP’s making asses of themselves – like Mr Mallard………
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 am
This system isn’t allowing me to put a Karma point on “tim barclay” above.
Well said, Tim.
It would be good if the Nats manage to “do a Clarkson job” on Peter Dunne as well as Winston Peters. The Ohariu voters need to get the message: what WON’T the Clarkists try to do in their next term if people like Dunny are still around to prop them up. And I’ve given up expecting Dunny to be a “moderating influence”, like I once would have expected him to be. I can only guess that the Beehive has some hold over him, like some dirt on him or something.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 am
Sorry to break it to you guys, but there is no way Dunne will lose Ohariu. He could be propping up an Alliance-Workers Party Government and he’d still take the seat.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 am
And absent MP’s like what’s her name in Auckland Central. A strong candidate taking the fight to streets would see that seat turn for the first time in like forever.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 am
This just in from Tane,
“splutter splutter vitriol. Hollow men. That is all.”
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:25 am
Where are the boyo’s from teh Stranded? In disaster recovery planning on the ninth floor?
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 am
Dunne should be placed under considerable pressure to withdraw from supporting the Government and National should go all out to unseat him if he does not.. National do win the party vote so just why should people vote for Dunne.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:46 am
That’s like saying that Nelsonians vote Labour, so they should elect Street rather than Smith.
People vote for Dunne because he is a good electorate MP.
People from outside the electorate often just don’t seem to realise that.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:48 am
DPF: Labour would be reduced to 13 electorate seats.
No wonder Chris Trotter is in panic mode!
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:51 am
Overall, this outcome would be good for the Labour Right faction – Goff, King, Cosgrove, Hawkins, Ross Robertson etc
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Never mind the results of the 2008 election… they will look good for Labour when compared to the results of the 2011 election. Three years of a successful National government, Labour finding out just how thin its support is without public money to prop up its electioneering… I would not be surprised if by 2011 Labour is not in Parliament at all!
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What about Wigram?
I’d love to see Blanderton booted out of parliament
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:24 pm
It is remarkable that Labour hasn’t at all been panicked despite all this gleeful doom saying from the Kiwiblog right, DPF and his channelers over at the Herald. Why? Well this is just a continuation of the collapse of the anti-Labour vote into National. It seems that people who don’t want Labour have worked out that under MMP National is going to have a massive problem trying to govern without a coalition partner, so everyone who wants a change of government has lined up behind National to try and give it a mandate to rule alone or, most relevantly, just get rid of Labour. But this poll just underlines National’s problem. On these figures, there will be a 6-seat overhang in the parliament (http://www.elections.org.nz/calculator/). All Labour has to do on that basis is pitch some policies aimed at clawing back 5% of the vote or so, and (I am assuming the Greens secure 6%, ACT, and NZF fail to get a seat and Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne win their electorates) the kingmakers will be the Maori Party. Now, despite all the talk about the Maori Party going with National it is MOST likely they’ll try and secure their policy objectives from Labour first in any coalition/abstention talks.
So here is a question for all the readers here on the Kiwiblog right: Do you realise that in trying to obtain the unobtainable – a single party government under an electoral system partially designed to prevent such a thing ever occurring – you are going to let Hone Hawawiri and Tariana Turia name their separatist price, and simply give Labour the first chance to swallow the rat, or if Labour won’t do it, know that National will do whatever it takes for power? Do you rightists who are not voting for your Ayn Rand or fundamentalist Christian principles realise that by not voting for ACT or the whatever fundy party takes your fancy, or N.Z. First or United Future, the most likely outcome is going to be a Labour/Green/Maori coalition – and that the paradox of collapsing the anti-Labour vote into National is most likely going to be a PROPERLY left wing government?
Think about it you know I am right.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:31 pm
pushmepullu, if only but that wouldn’t be to good for the health, would be on the piss all week in joyful exuberance.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
I have thought about it Toms and I believe we must adopt a written constitution and eradicate MMP forever -as it lets drongos dictate policy much to the detriment of the majority. Cut the pc – culturally sensitive bullshit .Time for a big clean sweep and radical rethink – because the current level of incompetence cannot be allowed to continue ! Then we can work on a better country. The government structures in place are designed for parasitic – deluded bureaucracies and the deranged politicians run around like headless fucking chickens?
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
“Do you rightists who are not voting for your Ayn Rand or fundamentalist Christian principles realise that by not voting for ACT or the whatever fundy party takes your fancy, or N.Z. First or United Future, the most likely outcome is going to be a Labour/Green/Maori coalition”
Given that Rodney Hide and Peter Dunne hold electorate seats, I fail to see how voting for Act and United Future will lead to a Labour, Green, Maori coalition.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:41 pm
The point is our FPP media seem to think the race is all over – when everyone should know that under MMP a silver and two bronzes trump a gold. And I don’t think Hide will win Epsom. Like Winston, his heart isn’t in it anymore.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
It is stupid if the movement of the Nats to the “centre” under John Key doesn’t put ACT back where they were before Don Brash became the Nats leader: with 7 or so seats.
What percentage of Kiwis want the anti-Nuke laws repealed, want an airforce, want to be friends with the US again, want out of the Kyoto farce, want more flexibilty in the education of their child, more health provision with the efficiencies of the private sector, and a whole lot more stuff like that? You can’t kid me that this constituency is less than 5% of Kiwis, and that it doesn’t make perfect sense for ALL of them to vote ACT.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
toms – MMP is a sick joke. Just look at the antics of the minor parties. They are more changeable than the bloody crazy weather. Waste of time the whole lot of ‘em. Go back to FPP. I think the damage to our Nations integrity deserves this and can you Liarbour creeps stop with the phone calls. Thank you communist cowards!
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
emmess, if things get tricky for Anderton in Wigram Labour would simply pull the plug on its own candidate, they would be mad not too. the combined vote of Labour and Anderton is the litmus test there and the gap is ginormous. People forget that Wigram is the 3rd poorest ELectorate in the Country. There are far more interesting things likely in other seats and if Wigram falls to National then it is likely that there is no Labour seat in the country standing.
2011 in my view is going to be like 2002 was for National, really really bad. 2008 will be a picnic compared to 2011 for Labour.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
OT
The Greens hit blogging big time in AU.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_lachlan_harris_of_the_young_greens/#commentsmore
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Do the figures include boundary changes? Also, David, maybe with the 2008 candidates page you could put the paper majorities each seat has to Labour/National from the 2005 election result.
[DPF: Yes they take account of the new boundaries]
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
What percentage of Kiwis want the anti-Nuke laws repealed, want an airforce, want to be friends with the US again, want out of the Kyoto farce, want more flexibilty in the education of their child, more health provision with the efficiencies of the private sector, and a whole lot more stuff like that? You can’t kid me that this constituency is less than 5% of Kiwis, and that it doesn’t make perfect sense for ALL of them to vote ACT.
Hopefully Rodney is listening to you Phil. Even if Act get 3% and Rodney keeps Epsom, that will be enough for a few MP’s.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:33 pm
I expect that in 2011 National will eat all of the remaining Labour vote up, but may lose some votes to ACT as voters are less worried about Labour. I think in 2011 National will have about 80 seats and ACT about 40.
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Toms: I disagree with some of your assumptions. ACT are very likely to hold Epsom, National will not push hard against him. NZF I would agree are unlikely to get back, but you never know with Winston. National will campaign hard against Winston.
I think that Dunne will end up the “kingmaker”, and that he will go with National because he will have pledged to go with the biggest party.
I don’t believe the “Kiwiblog Right” is a group any more than the “Standard left” is a group. Some here would perhaps prefer FPP, but you are ignoring the evidence if you think that everyone here wants a single party government. Pretty much everyone here regularly says that they doubt that will happen, and that even if it did happen that it would be desirable for National to form a coalition anyway so as to get used to something that will probably be necessary after the 2011 election.
You are deluding yourself if you think that Labour can form a coalition government with so many groupings and so little mandate, and that they can hold that coalition government together for more than a few months. After the collapse of that little effort, their vote share would probably fall below 20%.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I sincerely hope that all the optimism is justified and that we can get rid of this pernicious MMP system, but I can’t help recalling a General Election on the eve of which National had a commanding lead in the polls.On election night Mike Moore actually claimed victory and Jim Bolger made the most erudite comment of his Political carreer ” Bugger the Polls!”though he won by a nose.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Any government that requires the overhang to cling on to power would rightly be seen as illegitimate
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Emmess, this government is already illegitimate.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:41 pm
I have thought about it Toms and I believe we must adopt a written constitution and eradicate MMP forever -as it lets drongos dictate policy much to the detriment of the majority.
No, we need to teach civics as part of the school curriculum. No one gives a fuck about local government until they a) get their rates bill b) the council spend a month digging up the road outside their house or c) they need a building consent. As for central government, for the majority it is a sideshow that entertains and infuriates and their only real contact with it is once every three years.
If people better understood how they can have a say, rather than just whinging about it post-facto, we might see a better representative democracy than the pile of dusty crap we have right now.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
This must also assume that 3rd party candidate votes don’t change results e.g. in an interesting case like port hills. Rod Donald got 4,500 votes in 2005 one of the best results for them in NZ. You can be sure that that Greens won’t get that in 2008, but much of this is likely to move to Labour – though hopefully National picks up some. In the end only the party vote is going to determine who the government is going to be. National could win all the seats in NZ and theorectically not be in government.
March 3rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
‘People forget that Wigram is the 3rd poorest ELectorate in the Country.”
If you are dumb enough to elect Anderton as your MP for life you are too stupid to ever get to be wealthy.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
James In reply to
People vote for Dunne because he is a good electorate MP.
I disagree
Peter Dunne not a shoo in as some would think for Ohariu 2008.
Rest assured this flip flop, two bob each way, on the fence, seeing the winds of change Minister will certainly not get my vote for MP Ohariu in 2008.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Re Dunne: The conventional wisdom is that yes, Dunne is a “good electorate MP” and thus is welded onto Ohariu forever. I’d argue that National (or indeed anyone wishing to throw this preening political prostitute out on his ass) needs, therefore, to do two things.
First, emphasise over and over and over to the people of that electorate what a vote for Dunne means to the rest of the country.
And second, choose a high-profile local with a record of community work and activism who has little or no ambition to be anything other than an excellent electorate MP. Ohariu’s answer to George Groombridge, in other words. Having stood there in 1996 which the sole aim of embarrassing Dunny at every public meeting, I believe a good local candidate could bowl him.
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:30 pm
re Ohariu, i live there and Peter Dunne has never done a thing for me, i will be happily voting for whomever is most likely to punt him out. which is looking quite like katrina shanks, who unlike the dunne beetle, i have actually seen in the electorate on multiple occasions (i have never seen dunne).
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Agree, Grendel. I live in Ohariu too.
Shanks profile in the electorate is much higher and in 05 the party vote was overwhelmingly for a change of government.
Dunne’s entrenchment in the electorate may count against him, given his disregard for the wishes of his electorate. He just looks stale, much like the government he props up
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Very interesting analysis, DPF. As you say, this is just a linear swing–the vagaries of campaigning on the ground make a major difference. In 2005, Chester Borrows didn’t just beat Jill Pettis because of the linear swing–it was a major factor, but so was Chester’s hard work and dedication to winning the seat from Labour. Likewise with Jo Goodhew against Jim Sutton, and Chris Tremain against Russell Fairbrother.
The three factors that seem to come into play are the qualities of the National Candidate, the linear swing, and the vulnerabilities of the Labour MP. So let’s look at the first few seats on your list:
Auckland Central (Tizard) by 160 votes
Interestingly, that’s the most likely Auckland seat to fall to National. National doesn’t have a candidate yet, but the seat is winnable, and Tizard is hugely disliked. She’s entrenched, but a strong National candidate, with Tizard’s weakness and the national swing, should beat her. I doubt even with Judith’s close connections to the PM that she’ll get a high enough list placing this time to keep her in Parliament. Goodbye Judith.
Hamilton West (Gallagher) by 3,501 votes
Hard for Gallagher to stand up against that tide. Gallagher’s reasonably well established in the seat, but he’s not outstanding. A good National candidate should beat him. Gallagher’s unlikely to get a high list place to compensate. A strong Nat candidate will see him out of Parliament.
New Plymouth (Duynhoven) by 1 (yes 1) vote
Duynhoven’s highly respected and popular locally. An outstanding National candidate with a strong campaign will give him a fright, but I don’t see Harry losing it. He should hold on.
Otaki (Hughes) by 5,155 votes
Hughes is actually very highly regarded locally, and works hard. Nathan Guy ran a fantastic campaign last time, though, and I’d say Hughes doesn’t have much chance of holding it, despite his qualities. Hughes should be given a decent list place, and remain in Parliament.
Palmerston North by 506 votes
National should win it without Maharey bidding for it.
Rotorua (Chadwick) by 4,558 votes
National will win–it’s historically a National seat, and Chadwick was lucky to hold onto it last time. A decent National candidate will thump her this time, but she’ll remain in Parliament as a List MP.
Taupo (Burton) by 5,700 votes
National only needs to run a half-decent campaign against Burton to toss him out. Good riddance to him as well–he won’t get back in on Labour’s list.
West Coast-Tasman (O’Connor) by 3,274 votes
National’s only held it once before, but O’Connor has a fairly desperate fight on his hands. O’Connor’s very well-regarded locally, but he may take a few hits in the Phillip Field case later in the year, which could sink him. Probably out of Parliament, as he won’t be protected by the List.
Waitakere
It will take a major swing for National to win this seat. Paula Bennett is probably the strongest campaigner among the 2005 cohort of Auckland List MPs, and is a vibrant candidate. She should beat Lynne Pillay, who’s stupid and lazy. If she does so, Pillay will be out of Parliament.
Maungakiekie
If Gosche had stood again, he probably would have held it. It’s a completely open race with him out of it. Leila Boyle is the main name being touted for Labour’s candidacy–she’s simply awful. It will be very close. A very strong National candidate should beat her.
I don’t see any of the others turning blue this time.
March 3rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Bevan +2 Says:
March 3rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
(Quoting me):”What percentage of Kiwis want the anti-Nuke laws repealed, want an airforce, want to be friends with the US again, want out of the Kyoto farce, want more flexibilty in the education of their child, more health provision with the efficiencies of the private sector, and a whole lot more stuff like that? You can’t kid me that this constituency is less than 5% of Kiwis, and that it doesn’t make perfect sense for ALL of them to vote ACT.”
Bevan’s response:
“Hopefully Rodney is listening to you Phil. Even if Act get 3% and Rodney keeps Epsom, that will be enough for a few MP’s.”
ACT WAS ALWAYS OVER THE 5% BEFORE DON BRASH CAME ALONG. And the constituency I refer to above, has to include many more people than voted for ACT in the pre-Don Brash days, because National wasn’t as soft-centred then as they have become since. Like you say, I hope Rodney is listening……..
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
Hide will keep his seat, he’ll put most of the parties resources to it. Those who think he won’t, then i’d suggest doing some reading up on it, and after all Epson goes fairly well with ACT policies.
I don’t know enough about Dunne in Ohariu to say if he will win. But its interesting that people say he does nothing much in the electorate, but people still vote for him.
I’d suggest this is similar to my electorate of Dunedin North & Pete Hodgson, Pete doesn’t really do much in the electorate, although he does seem to attend a few of the local community events, promoting himself & Labour. But on big issues for Dunedin he doesn’t seem to advocate for us, an issue for us at the moment is the new stadium funding, a lot of people say well the Govt is giving $190 million to Eden Park, so why not give the likes of AMI Stadium (Christchurch) that’s having a huge upgrade to be ready for the RWC, and Dunedin (a new stadium, with roof) $10 million each to help pay for the upgrade. Hodgsons standard response seems to be that its not govt policy, without even pushing for it at cabinet level. Unfortunately for us, with Rich standing down, its unlikely he’ll get much of a challenge for the seat, and in fact I think he’ll hugely increase his lead from last election.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Inv2 – Don’t forget Craig Foss beating Barker in 05.
As a Hastings resident I am getting the clear feeling that Barker and Fairbrother will be humiliated in November.
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Emmess – do you mean the Labour led government is a bastard?
Interesting that Dyson the Dyke could be out – hopefully to join her friends the Sea Lettuces in Sumner bay.
March 4th, 2008 at 9:14 am
There’s no way Dyson will lose.
Carter, although a poor campaigner, was at least known and had the advantage of the Banks Peninsula farmers.
The Nats are putting up a very poor candidate this time around.