Carter, although a poor campaigner, was at least known and had the advantage of the Banks Peninsula farmers.

The Nats are putting up a very poor candidate this time around.

As a Hastings resident I am getting the clear feeling that Barker and Fairbrother will be humiliated in November.

I don’t know enough about Dunne in Ohariu to say if he will win. But its interesting that people say he does nothing much in the electorate, but people still vote for him.
I’d suggest this is similar to my electorate of Dunedin North & Pete Hodgson, Pete doesn’t really do much in the electorate, although he does seem to attend a few of the local community events, promoting himself & Labour. But on big issues for Dunedin he doesn’t seem to advocate for us, an issue for us at the moment is the new stadium funding, a lot of people say well the Govt is giving $190 million to Eden Park, so why not give the likes of AMI Stadium (Christchurch) that’s having a huge upgrade to be ready for the RWC, and Dunedin (a new stadium, with roof) $10 million each to help pay for the upgrade. Hodgsons standard response seems to be that its not govt policy, without even pushing for it at cabinet level. Unfortunately for us, with Rich standing down, its unlikely he’ll get much of a challenge for the seat, and in fact I think he’ll hugely increase his lead from last election.

March 3rd, 2008 at 1:09 pm
(Quoting me):”What percentage of Kiwis want the anti-Nuke laws repealed, want an airforce, want to be friends with the US again, want out of the Kyoto farce, want more flexibilty in the education of their child, more health provision with the efficiencies of the private sector, and a whole lot more stuff like that? You can’t kid me that this constituency is less than 5% of Kiwis, and that it doesn’t make perfect sense for ALL of them to vote ACT.”

Bevan’s response:
“Hopefully Rodney is listening to you Phil. Even if Act get 3% and Rodney keeps Epsom, that will be enough for a few MP’s.”

ACT WAS ALWAYS OVER THE 5% BEFORE DON BRASH CAME ALONG. And the constituency I refer to above, has to include many more people than voted for ACT in the pre-Don Brash days, because National wasn’t as soft-centred then as they have become since. Like you say, I hope Rodney is listening……..

The three factors that seem to come into play are the qualities of the National Candidate, the linear swing, and the vulnerabilities of the Labour MP. So let’s look at the first few seats on your list:

Auckland Central (Tizard) by 160 votes

Interestingly, that’s the most likely Auckland seat to fall to National. National doesn’t have a candidate yet, but the seat is winnable, and Tizard is hugely disliked. She’s entrenched, but a strong National candidate, with Tizard’s weakness and the national swing, should beat her. I doubt even with Judith’s close connections to the PM that she’ll get a high enough list placing this time to keep her in Parliament. Goodbye Judith.

Hamilton West (Gallagher) by 3,501 votes

Hard for Gallagher to stand up against that tide. Gallagher’s reasonably well established in the seat, but he’s not outstanding. A good National candidate should beat him. Gallagher’s unlikely to get a high list place to compensate. A strong Nat candidate will see him out of Parliament.

New Plymouth (Duynhoven) by 1 (yes 1) vote

Duynhoven’s highly respected and popular locally. An outstanding National candidate with a strong campaign will give him a fright, but I don’t see Harry losing it. He should hold on.

Otaki (Hughes) by 5,155 votes

Hughes is actually very highly regarded locally, and works hard. Nathan Guy ran a fantastic campaign last time, though, and I’d say Hughes doesn’t have much chance of holding it, despite his qualities. Hughes should be given a decent list place, and remain in Parliament.

Palmerston North by 506 votes

National should win it without Maharey bidding for it.

Rotorua (Chadwick) by 4,558 votes
National will win–it’s historically a National seat, and Chadwick was lucky to hold onto it last time. A decent National candidate will thump her this time, but she’ll remain in Parliament as a List MP.

Taupo (Burton) by 5,700 votes
National only needs to run a half-decent campaign against Burton to toss him out. Good riddance to him as well–he won’t get back in on Labour’s list.

West Coast-Tasman (O’Connor) by 3,274 votes
National’s only held it once before, but O’Connor has a fairly desperate fight on his hands. O’Connor’s very well-regarded locally, but he may take a few hits in the Phillip Field case later in the year, which could sink him. Probably out of Parliament, as he won’t be protected by the List.

Waitakere
It will take a major swing for National to win this seat. Paula Bennett is probably the strongest campaigner among the 2005 cohort of Auckland List MPs, and is a vibrant candidate. She should beat Lynne Pillay, who’s stupid and lazy. If she does so, Pillay will be out of Parliament.

Maungakiekie
If Gosche had stood again, he probably would have held it. It’s a completely open race with him out of it. Leila Boyle is the main name being touted for Labour’s candidacy–she’s simply awful. It will be very close. A very strong National candidate should beat her.

I don’t see any of the others turning blue this time.

Shanks profile in the electorate is much higher and in 05 the party vote was overwhelmingly for a change of government.

Dunne’s entrenchment in the electorate may count against him, given his disregard for the wishes of his electorate. He just looks stale, much like the government he props up

First, emphasise over and over and over to the people of that electorate what a vote for Dunne means to the rest of the country.

And second, choose a high-profile local with a record of community work and activism who has little or no ambition to be anything other than an excellent electorate MP. Ohariu’s answer to George Groombridge, in other words. Having stood there in 1996 which the sole aim of embarrassing Dunny at every public meeting, I believe a good local candidate could bowl him.

If you are dumb enough to elect Anderton as your MP for life you are too stupid to ever get to be wealthy.

No, we need to teach civics as part of the school curriculum. No one gives a fuck about local government until they a) get their rates bill b) the council spend a month digging up the road outside their house or c) they need a building consent. As for central government, for the majority it is a sideshow that entertains and infuriates and their only real contact with it is once every three years.

If people better understood how they can have a say, rather than just whinging about it post-facto, we might see a better representative democracy than the pile of dusty crap we have right now.

I think that Dunne will end up the “kingmaker”, and that he will go with National because he will have pledged to go with the biggest party.

I don’t believe the “Kiwiblog Right” is a group any more than the “Standard left” is a group. Some here would perhaps prefer FPP, but you are ignoring the evidence if you think that everyone here wants a single party government. Pretty much everyone here regularly says that they doubt that will happen, and that even if it did happen that it would be desirable for National to form a coalition anyway so as to get used to something that will probably be necessary after the 2011 election.

You are deluding yourself if you think that Labour can form a coalition government with so many groupings and so little mandate, and that they can hold that coalition government together for more than a few months. After the collapse of that little effort, their vote share would probably fall below 20%.

Hopefully Rodney is listening to you Phil. Even if Act get 3% and Rodney keeps Epsom, that will be enough for a few MP’s.

[DPF: Yes they take account of the new boundaries]