Boris wins

May 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm by David Farrar

Superb – has beaten by 53% to 47% (very close to YouGov prediction).

Labour MPs are saying has six months to turn things around or he will face a coup.

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36 Responses to “Boris wins”

  1. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Labour MPs are saying Gordon Brown has six months to turn things around or he will face a coup.

    shouldn’t that read Helen Clark?

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  2. peterwn (3,204 comments) says:

    No. Replacing Helen before election day would be self defeating. The knives would be out soon after.

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  3. boomtownprat (281 comments) says:

    “Labour MPs are saying Gordon Brown has six months to turn things around or he will face a coup.”

    Then he is toast. Phone is off the hook all over the world for Labour

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  4. Ross Miller (1,677 comments) says:

    Hmmmmm … it may be worth repeating the post by our ‘old friend’ GWW3 (referring to the YouGov poll)

    ghostwhowalks3 (164) –6 Says:

    May 1st, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    YouGov is a load of rubbish. One poll had on this issue had 50% of repondees over 60 ?? And their ‘internet’ polling is via newspapers web sites, dont expect much support for Ken from the Evening Standard/Daily Express.

    and for the latest spin on his spin its over to GWW3 …. Hullo, Hullo, where are you

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  5. Ross Miller (1,677 comments) says:

    Lee C … re your 12.25 … are you suggesting Helen Clark is a ‘he’?

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  6. Lee C (4,516 comments) says:

    Oh Ross you cunning trickster, you, you have blown my cover. Yes. I am actually Ian Wishart, and I have conclusive evidence that Helen is a man*

    *source: (investigate magazine 10/12/2004 ‘Helen Clark is secretly a Man – Honest, I got aphoto of his willy.)

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  7. Grant Michael McKenna (1,156 comments) says:

    With regards to Gordon Brown- There Is No Alternative…
    There is nobody with enough support to win and run a government; the UK will see Labour collapse as did the Tories 18 years ago- and they are ow ready to return…

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  8. bobux (349 comments) says:

    Ross M

    You beat me to the Ghostie quote.

    Ghostie? Anyone there…

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  9. Murray (8,841 comments) says:

    Come on guys its the weekend. You know the thing actual workers used to have but now only the pubic service get. You wont find the usual suspects till Monday unless they get a special memo from the ninth floor and overtime.

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  10. Neil (570 comments) says:

    Boris has defeated “Red Ken”. Great !
    One of the big winners of the night is Lynton Crosby, John Howard’s ex-spin doctor. There is a very good article in todays UK Guardian(Personally I can’t stand this paper but I wanted to see a left leaning view) which shows how he works.
    He forced Boris into a situation where the gaffe prone candidate never dropped the ball.
    The USA has a person like Karl Rove maybe Australia has provided a man who will impact on the next UK election.
    National’s director of the 1995 election,Steven Joyce, did well, the question I ask is do National have a strategist like Rove and Crosby who can engineer a landslide.

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  11. infused (644 comments) says:

    Can someone explain to me why he has fallen so fast? Didn’t people really like him at one point?

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  12. The Optimist (61 comments) says:

    This is going to be interesting.

    By the way Boris is a great writer. If you haven’t read any of his stuff, try these:

    Why there are not enough decent men for women to marry:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/02/01/do0101.xml

    His account of being moved on a plane in case he was a paedophile:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/11/09/do0901.xml

    And some great quotes here:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1557548/Boris-Johnson-in-quotes.html

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  13. Southern Raider (1,729 comments) says:

    Could the last Socialist please turn out the lights!

    Seems the world is returning to its natural state of balance. The conservatives are winning back power to make right all the shit the Socialists have got us into and global warming is turning out to be on hold for a while.

    This is a good omen for the NZ elections.

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  14. Ross Miller (1,677 comments) says:

    Neil … re your 2.21. Steven Joyce is also directing National’s campaign this year.

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  15. ghostwhowalks3 (387 comments) says:

    Oh please you lot are so stupid… Australia has just gone labour, the US is heading to rout for the Republicans.
    AS for Boris…

    That name is Veronica Wadley, the editor of the London Evening Standard and, some would argue, the single most powerful figure in his campaign team.

    Wadley backed Johnson before he was chosen as the Tory candidate and gave him a proverbial kick up the backside for running a lacklustre campaign. For the past six months, her paper has mounted attacks on Ken Livingstone, his friends, his advisers and his years in office, opening the paper to criticism that it has been pushing a very personal political agenda.

    Some recent Standard headlines include: “‘Drunk on power’ – Ken admits he has a private fiefdom”; “SUICIDE BOMB BACKER RUNS KEN CAMPAIGN”, and “Charmer Boris, a one-man messiah”.

    …The newspaper’s key contribution may have been the fact it could put around 500 billboards on London streets every day declaring that Livingstone was corrupt and Johnson was heading for victory.

    Amoung the backers at the Evening Standard was Andrew Gilligan, he was the liar at the BBC in the so called sexed up intelligence report

    Of course there is a financial reason for the ES to go for Boris

    The Standard may have another motivation for backing Johnson. In 2010, two years into his administration, Associated’s contract to supply London underground stations with its free Metro newspaper will run out. The contract’s renewal is a decision for Transport for London, whose chairman the mayor appoints. Metro has proved a success for Associated and it is determined to defend it.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2008/may/03/localgovernment.london08

    And Crosby may have made a buffon like Boris electable along with satuartion coverage from ES and its free Metro paper but they dont stick around for the term of office.

    So like Sarkorzy in France Boris will be a one hit wonder

    but this is interesting
    A standard Crosby campaign approach is to bypass traditional media, such as the parliamentary press gallery and professional political writers,” says Bush – and this has been true too of the Johnson campaign in London. “Instead he uses conservative shock jocks, talkback radio hosts and soft daytime TV. They ask easier questions and can directly communicate to voters without the funnel of a journalist.”
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/london08.boris

    Watch for this in NZ with Slippery Sharkey

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  16. Rocket Boy (163 comments) says:

    Boomtownprat – ‘Then he is toast. Phone is off the hook all over the world for Labour’

    Southern Raider – ‘Seems the world is returning to its natural state of balance. The conservatives are winning back power to make right all the shit the Socialists have got us into and global warming is turning out to be on hold for a while.’

    You boys heard of Australia? Did you miss the flogging that Howard got earlier this year??

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  17. PaulL (5,977 comments) says:

    Getting too excited guys – it’s just the usual swings. Libs in Australia got voted out after what – 4 terms? Labour in the UK looking in trouble after what – 3 terms? Conservatives in US should be in trouble given Bush’s lacklustre stewardship, but with luck the Dems will prove that they are capable of wasting any advantage granted to them.

    The message we should take from all this? Governments that are in power too long get stale and the voters don’t like it. And Helen is in trouble. :-)

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  18. Peak Oil Conspiracy (3,102 comments) says:

    Rocket Boy:

    You boys heard of Australia? Did you miss the flogging that Howard got earlier this year??

    Yes and apparently yes.

    I’ve heard of Australia. Now what flogging this year might you be referring to?

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  19. Craig Ranapia (1,915 comments) says:

    Getting too excited guys – it’s just the usual swings.

    Yes and no, Paul. Labour had its worse local body election result — and lowest share of the popular vote — in almost sixty years, which I wouldn’t dismiss quite that glibly. Especially if I was a Labour backbencher in a marginal seat, who’d seen my constituents give their Labour councillors the middle finger salute. It’s certainly not a ‘usual swing” for Conservatives to win overall control of councils in places like Bury and North Tyneside. I think David Cameron is striking the right note — great achievement, but there’s still a lot of work to do and no room for complacency.

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  20. Steve Withers (98 comments) says:

    Labour in the UK deserves a kicking after following Blair into Iraq. That pared away a lt of their support. Last election they “won” with 35% of the vote. Their policies didn’t see them elected, it was First Past the Post that allowed them to govern for several more years despite 65% of voters not wanting them.

    The Liberals in Australia got their kicking a few months back. Iraq and the lies they told to get Australia into that mess also featured in the defeat.

    In the US, voting turnout suggests that the Republicans are in collapse and – again – their performance in relation to Iraq and its consequences feature largely.

    In Canada, the relatively newly re-formed Conservative Party are being held at bay, hemmed in by minority government. They can’t get high enough in the polls as they are crippled by wider voter antipathy to their agenda, closely tied to the US conservative agenda as it is. Canadians soldiers coming home every month in body bags from Afghanistan is a constant reminder of the serious failures of the broader US foreign policy that got Canada into that quagmire.

    Here in New Zealand, the Labour party can be said to have run its course. Perhaps too much has been made of its failings and not enough of its successes, but that is all debatable. The core question is: Will National be any better? For example, how will policies that give even more power to employers to sack workers for no reason, like the 90-day probation policy, result in higher wages? Under existing policies there is ample evidence wages can’t rise to match rising prices. I can’t see how reducing the power of workers further will improve that situation. I would think we would se even more people flee to Australia to escape the low-wage policy regime already operating here. It’s been in place since the Employment Contracts Act came in under National in the early 90s and Labour did litle to change it. Wages have been under pressure ever since, while profits have often been spectacular.

    So…is there a great wheel turning to conservatism worldwide? I can’t see it. The two prospects for tory parties in the offing are the two places where they have been kept out of power for so long due to the animosity they earned in prior cycles: NZ in the 90s and the UK under Thatcher. Neither country wants to return to those days. But at the same time, they may well want to rid themselves of a government that have grown tired of. That is certainly the case in the UK where Iraq is relevant in a way that it simply is not here.

    I think the gap will narrow between Labour and National as the year goes on as more focus comes onto policies. Certainly, though, Labour is always in danger of the exhibiting the arrogance that got them into trouble in the first place.

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  21. bobux (349 comments) says:

    Ghostie

    Gold, pure comedy gold.

    Are you seriously suggesting that the support of a single London newspaper editor is responsible for the Boris Johnson win?

    If editors were that powerful, polititians wouldn’t bother to campaign at all. And you omitted to explain how the fevered opposition of the Guardian, the Independent and the Daily Mirror somehow failed to cancel out the overwhelming force of the Standard’s support.

    Red Ken lost because people were tired of him. He was seeking a third term. He has looked increasingly arrogant and out of touch. There are serious unanswered allegations of corruption and cronyism in city hall. And finally, he ran an extraordinarily negative campaign, based entirely around demonising Boris. It didn’t work.

    Does that sound at all familiar to anyone here?

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  22. clintheine (1,568 comments) says:

    GWW is tripping out big time about the Metro. That will stay whoever is the mayor.

    Ken hung himself and deserves all he’s getting. I spent my afternoon today at Boris’s first press conference and it was great to see a mayor so up front and passionate about the city of London. Ken can sod off to his mate Hugos house as far as I care.

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  23. kiwi in america (2,465 comments) says:

    Steve Withers, Ghostwalks and other lefties
    Labor in Australia finally beat Howard by agreeing with pretty much all of his policies. Yes they toned down the labour reforms, they did the easy PR thing and said sorry to the stolen generation victims and brought some of the troops home but the economic heart of Howard’s agenda including another large round of tax cuts, Rudd said “me too”. That’s hardly a rout of the right.

    You both are breathlessly predicting a Republican rout. The higher levels of turnout in the Democrat Primaries gets cited as the “enthusiasm gap”. Of course the turnout is high when you’ve got the clash of the titans going on. Of course what the left’s cheerleaders forget is the same 2 or 3 – 1 gap between the Dems and GOP PRIMARY voters occured in …1980 and 1988 – two other years with a contested Democrat primary and the result was …. oh that’s right a Democrat rout each time.

    McCain leads Obama and Clinton in most head to head polls – Obama is sinking gradually under the weigth of his objectionable and left leaning associations and yet the Dems seem intent on electing him. Nothing would please McCain more than to fight the neophyte dove. Recent opinion on the war in Iraq has shifted in the US but the anti-war left is clinging to old polls and last year’s narrative. Americans still dont like this war but there is now a plurality who want to give Petraeus the benefit of the doubt to consolidate the demonstrable gains made with his change of strategy. Both Clinton and Obama have bowed to the anti-war leftwing faction of their own party in promising as quick a retreat of troops as possible – a policy that is not out of step with US opinion.

    The Democrat candidates have indeed raised more money than the GOP contenders but they’ve squandered it fighting each other for so long. When you look at the down-the-ticket fund raising numbers, the RNC has almost 5 times as much money to fight Congressional races as the DNC and that’s with the Hillary Obama race still yet to go another month. The fund raising gap will be nowhere near as great come the autumn general election and, as we’ve seen with Obama’s 3 -1 spends in OH, PA and TX and Romney’s huge money advantage over Huckabee and McCain, money doesn’t guarantee you win.

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  24. bwakile (757 comments) says:

    The lefties can scrawk as much as they like but Southern raider nailed it.
    The world is awakening to the truth about the likes of Red Ken, Blair/Brown, Clarrk etc
    We have had enough of their hidden agendas and politics of control.
    Give the Aussies 3 years and they will also realise Rudd is just another wolf in sheep’s clothing.
    Running off to sign up to Kyoto on his first day showed his true colours.
    Global warming is just one fraud too far.

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  25. Owen McShane (1,226 comments) says:

    I watched the main TV channels trying to find some – any– reporting of this election result and found nothing.
    \Maybe there was a three second item somewhere but I missed it so we finally turned to BBC and CNN.

    Do our mainstream media have a death with.
    The TV news was still besotted with the Austrian and numerous other murders and accidental deaths and meaningless stuff about sharks and the like.
    I wonder if TVOne would have ignored the result if it had been a Labour victory.

    And as a matter of interest, the congestion charging in London had absolutely no impact on Air quality.

    And is seems Auckland under the guidance of absolutely incompetent leaders is talking of builiding tunnels under the harbour and the FIRST two will be for rail. Don’t they know they already have a bus lane and don ‘t they know there is no point in building a rail tunnel when there is NO rail network for it to connect to?
    What does the word RAIL do to the human mind. Of course Lenin loved trains and they were a powerful symbol of the revolution but that was some time ago.

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  26. simo (150 comments) says:

    Owen McShane said

    “I watched the main TV channels trying to find some – any– reporting of this election result and found nothing.
    \Maybe there was a three second item somewhere but I missed it so we finally turned to BBC and CNN.

    Do our mainstream media have a death wish”.

    The silence from the NZ Media was deafening re the rout of the Labour party in the UK elections, they all got a call from the ninth floor to STFU. However, the electoral death of the the Labour Party in the UK will parallel itself here.

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  27. ghostwhowalks3 (387 comments) says:

    The London papers are probably making up their headlines for ‘Boris ballups ‘

    Remember your last great hope to win, Sarkozy in France. DPF breathlessly gave us the lastest polls and results. Then of course when he called parliamentary elections the chutzpuah dissapeared , now hes in deep shit … just like Sharkey will be if he wins

    …its 3am and the phone is ringing…
    . Thanks for calling John Key, I cant answer the phone right now as Im in Hawaii..again. MY new house number is …… but only during breakfast time here as Im sure Simon English will be able to handle it.. Good bye

    [DPF: Oh poor Ghostie - the only way he can find solace is in the notion that if the Opposition wins, they be unpopular at times!]

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  28. Johnboy (15,537 comments) says:

    Hey SprocketBoy looks like you won’t get to go on your “Driving holiday” to London. The nails are already in Red Kens coffin and Boris won’t give a visa to a sad little leftie prick like you. Are you really old enough to drive?

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  29. ghostwhowalks3 (387 comments) says:

    Looks like the Dems won AGAIN in a traditional GOP district in Louisiana, that makes most ( but not all) by elections!

    Let Boris win one. The british media will be dancing around the Fire ( except for ES and its stable mates) in delight for waht is too come.
    Its going to be a OMG time for GOP ( like nationals 20.9% in 2003) at the end of the year for Congress.

    And over in Australia the most senior Liberal elected official is Mayor of Brisbane!!!!. Eat your heart out

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  30. Johnboy (15,537 comments) says:

    Hey Ghost I just talked to Boris and he gave me a message for you here it is:

    WE WON YOU LOST GET USED TO IT

    end of message

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  31. ghostwhowalks3 (387 comments) says:

    Look at this , the London Assembly results

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/London-assemWhat'ssults.do?=44

    Whats this !,Labour INCREASE the number of electorate seats

    Boris is Londons new Mugabe!

    Who was it who WON ? again

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  32. Ed Snack (1,781 comments) says:

    Hope the 9th floor is giving you overtime rates tonight GWW3, or does the leaders fund not stretch to that.

    BTW, H2 says get with the program, it’s “slippery john” not “sharkey”, “sharkey” didn’t quite catch the imagination enough.

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  33. ghostwhowalks3 (387 comments) says:

    Old post missing.
    The gist is Labour increase seats on London assembly
    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/london-assemblyresults.do?=44

    Who won?
    Boris promises no bendy buses and no third runway for heathrow.

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  34. Craig Ranapia (1,915 comments) says:

    Whats this !,Labour INCREASE the number of electorate seats

    Um, a net gain for Labour of one; from seven to eight out of twenty five.

    Meanwhile, a little story from the BBC Ghostie fails to mention:

    Results for the London Assembly show a 6.20% increase in the Tory vote across all 14 first-past the post seats.

    Constituency results for Bexley and Bromley and Havering and Redbridge saw 12 and 13-point swings to the Tories.

    But Labour was also up by 3.36% across all 14, and the party’s Navin Shah won Brent and Harrow from the Tories.

    The Liberal Democrat vote was down by 4.70% across all 14 seats, while the British National Party gained its first seat on the London Assembly.

    The BNP passed the 5% voter threshold to take a seat at City Hall.

    But the United Kingdom Independence Party’s share fell by 7.05%.

    Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7381469.stm

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  35. bobux (349 comments) says:

    Ghostie

    While I admire your ability to claim a brutal kicking from the voters was somehow a good thing for Labour, lets get back to your dazzling insight into UK polling techniques. In your immortal words:

    “YouGov is a load of rubbish.”

    As the head of YouGov has pointed out (http://adamboulton.typepad.com/)

    “Our final poll, published on Thursday morning, showed Boris leading Ken by 53-47%. The result? Boris won by 53-47%.”

    “Last month Ken Livingstone’s campaign team complained to the Market Research Society that YouGov’s results must be flawed because they were so consistently out of line with the polls by “established” telephone research companies.”

    I draw two conclusions from this:

    1) Conventional (i,e, telephone-based) polling companies need to take a hard look at their business model; and
    2) Ghostie is even more out of touch with reality than I would have thought possible.

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  36. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,820 comments) says:

    I voted for Boris.

    Good to see the Conservatives trouncing Labour.

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