The election date
Bill Ralston reports on speculation that the election date will be 18 October 2008.
My consistent position has been that the last date is the default date and no other date has been decided on, but that any time after the budget, Clark could tactically go early if the polls close enough or the Government gets some momentum.
The last five election dates are recorded as:
September 17, 2005
July 27, 2002
November 27, 1999
October 12, 1996
November 6, 1993
These are a bit misleading though. November is the traditional date, and I believe the date should be fixed for the last Saturday in November. Anyway we had November in 1993. The reason 1996 was early was because Michael Laws was forced to resign from Parliament in early 1996 and Bolger had to either allow a by-election or name a date within six months. If not for that, would probably have been November also.
1999 was November. Then there was a snap election in 2002 when Helen Clark used the preposterous excuse that Parliament was unmanageable because of points of order over the status of the Alliance. This was revealed to be around 11 minutes a day on average, so Clark has a history of going early purely for tactical reasons, with the flimsiest if excuses.
2005 was held on the last possible day, or close to it. Each election can be three years and 50 days or so after the previous one, so we have the chance this time to get it back to the traditional November date.
May 18th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Speaking as someone who participates in a strategic sport, I would say that if I left the application of strategy to this late in the game I’d just be kidding myself. Going early or late, it’ll make no difference. Talking about strategy at this stage is a joke. Where was the strategy when the EFB was being discussed? Oh that’s right, it was this: “…throw one of my oldest colleagues to the wolves and hope that nobody notices. That way she’ll never be leader.” Some strategy. And where was this brilliant general while her plans to cling to power were unravelling? She wasn’t in the debating chamber. The idea of clinging to power is not so much a strategy, since a strategy requires skill and thought, but a pose. We’ve seen less and less of the besieged general in the house this year. She’s holed-up in the bunker.
May 18th, 2008 at 9:04 am
Nov 5th sounds like an apt date. Hulun will ban fireworks though….
May 18th, 2008 at 10:38 am
I would go for November 8 or 15 (the last possible date). The international media will be focused on the American election and quite possibly the debate between Obama and McCain on Iraq. Suddenly our media think that THEY should focus on Iraq as well, and then remind the public that National wanted to invade Iraq. That would be what the ninth floor would hope at least.
May 18th, 2008 at 11:01 am
“Suddenly our media think that THEY should focus on Iraq as well, and then remind the public that National wanted to invade Iraq. That would be what the ninth floor would hope at least.”
Yeah, good analysis. It will be something like that. If not Iraq then something else that the left media dream up. Some substitute for “Brash met with the Brethren and lied about it”..
Its why you should never give the left a beachhead. On every point they try to make political capital on they need to be effectively confronted, and that includes Iraq. They’re always wrong, so its easy. The real work is in getting the truth out past their partisan propagandists in the mainstream media. Which is why left wing media people should be one of the primary focuses of National’s campaign.
National need to make it clear to the public that those posing as objective commentators are in most cases far from it. The claim that journalists are automatically by means of their trade objective has been shown on so many occasions to be partisan rubbish. National has to publicise by some means the fact that most journalists are advocates for the Labour party. (or often the Green/ Watermelon party) (In most cases because they don’t know any better.) It is important for the democratic process and free and fair elections that the small amount of credibility these partisan leftist charlatans still cling to is effectively countered.
The biggest enemy to truth and democracy in New Zealand is the TV One newsroom and current affairs commentary division. They have nobody able to provide analysis from a right wing perspective. (although from some reports, there’s some guy hidden away on breakfast TV who might be changing that)
May 18th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Hey Don Brash said he could understand the Americans invading Iraq and Afghanistan it was Helen who sent troops there . Most of the publicity was about how we send troop to help with reconstruction. Of course when things in Iraq got a bit to hot for Helen and the Kiwis need to be carrying arms or were shown to be working with armed British Guards she pulled them out.
Helen only sends good troops to help the people you see not bad fighting ones who may get hurt or even worst killed.
This was typical hypocrisy by Helen because of course it was her government that also sent in the SAS to Afghanistan and one of the troopers act in such away in such a fire fight with determine enemy that he was awarded the V.C.
May 18th, 2008 at 11:41 am
The last saturday in November is FAR TOO late. It places forming a Government right on Xmas, better to have it the first saturday in November or even better the first saturday in October with the campaign running through September, which seems about fine. On voting systems I would be strongly opposed to STV where everybody’s SECOND choice is at risk of being elected. I favour SM with 80 General seats, the existing maori seats and 40 PR seats with no 5% threashold. That system would give the Greens 2 seats which about right, Peters would have 1-2 seats (far too many) and the Maori Party 7 electorate seats and possibly 2 further seats – quite a lot but you cannot abolish the Maori seats without considering whether there should be a special maori assembly.
May 18th, 2008 at 11:45 am
As if Clark is going to care if a new Govt has to be formed on Xmas eve…she wont turn up
May 18th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Clark could call an early election as a purely popular move. It’d make me happy for one.
May 18th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
The sooner the better. How about next weekend?
It would also give them less time to get all their newly imported voters onto the electoral role.
May 18th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
While we’re on the topic and at the risk of being accused of link whoring, here’s the best election announcement ever.
http://100wordblog.wordpress.com/2008/03/30/muldoon-nostalgia/
May 18th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
It pissed me off a bit in ‘05.
For a Labour second term they got an extra 3 months, because of the snap election called in 2002
If a snap election is called a government shouldn’t get extra time in the next term.
It would mean we would only have 2 more months to put up with this bloody lot
As for Iraq, it’ll be virtually over by the end of the year
Maliki has smashed the Sadrists in Basra, forced them in submission in Sadr City and now is launching an offensive against the last remaining Al Qaeda stronghold in and around Mosul.
All done with Iraqi troops, and using American air cover only.
American troop deaths will be down to single digits per month and large troop withdrawls may have already begun
May 18th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
“As for Iraq, it’ll be virtually over by the end of the year”
Over by Christmas, eh? Where have I heard that before …
Or will we have to wait a few more Friedman Units or so?
May 18th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Well, I kind of expected that sort of response from somebody
And I understand it
In my defence I follow statistics and reports from Iraq very closely and I have never made a prediction like that before
Iraqi units doing virtually all the fighting is something that was talked about for a very long time but never eventuated until the crackdown in Basra. Unless something goes seriously wrong in the Mosul offensive, it difficult to see why people should be pessimistic. If anyone knows of any other regions in Iraq where trouble is likely to occur please let me know?
May 18th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
The maximum term of Parliament is three years. An early election doesn’t change that.
May 18th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
I hope Dear Leader makes up her mine soon, I have a pallet of piss to order, a few boxes of rough red, some rum, some vodka, some gin and I guess I better get a couple of bottles of cider for the wife. It should be a good day !!!!!!!!!!!!!.
May 18th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
stuarts-burger says:
“Hey Don Brash said he could understand the Americans invading Iraq and Afghanistan it was Helen who sent troops there . Most of the publicity was about how we send troop to help with reconstruction. Of course when things in Iraq got a bit to hot for Helen and the Kiwis need to be carrying arms or were shown to be working with armed British Guards she pulled them out.
Helen only sends good troops to help the people you see not bad fighting ones who may get hurt or even worst killed.
This was typical hypocrisy by Helen because of course it was her government that also sent in the SAS to Afghanistan and one of the troopers act in such away in such a fire fight with determine enemy that he was awarded the V.C.”
Yes, everyone in the defence world in Wellington knows our SAS were in Iraq from day one (or slightly before) wearing British uniforms. Helen sent our troops to a war in secret because she wanted to win kudos from Bush and Blair but be able to deny involvement back home. Sick, sick sick.
May 18th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
>>The maximum term of Parliament is three years. An early election doesn’t change that.
Ok so it was 3 years 2 months
Can someone explain when the 3 years is calculated from and to?
Is it parliaments first sitting day until the day it is disolved?
(I probably should google it)
May 18th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
4 weeks after the budget max.
Lolly scramble time.
Just seen the cunliffe health lolly scramble announced, expect more.
May 18th, 2008 at 11:35 pm
The three years is from when Parliament starts. It starts the day the election result is announced. Three years later it ends, the Parliament is dissolved and it cannot sit any more.
July 6th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Labour should fall on its sword and give the electorate a date now.
Come on Hels, give us a date, or are you chicken?