Comments on: May Public Polls

By: philu

philu — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 05:01:07 +0000

no..phil (the inferior)..!

i am phil..

you are phil (the inferior)..

got that..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)

By: PhilBest

PhilBest — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 02:11:30 +0000

# spector (50) Add karma Subtract karma +2 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:16 pm

“I wouldn’t count the “undecides” in there Phil… the “undecides” could go anywhere… that’s why they are called “undecided”. For all the undecided voters to vote solely for either Labour or Greens and not National or ACT is a statistical improbability.”

# Captain Crab (162) Add karma Subtract karma +1 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:30 pm

“And the Greens have exposed their own self serving ways so not so sure about the Maori Party supporting them now. Maori are after their own power base and self determination. As they should be.
Your confidence Phil, smacks of the patronisng attitude which seems prevalent with Greens and even Labour as to whom Maori will go into coalition with.”

HEY!!!!! Please refer to THAT GUY as “philu”…….

By: Murray

Murray — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 23:16:37 +0000

You keep clinging to that cement lifejacket phool, help is coming.

By: Lee C

Lee C — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 18:50:28 +0000

‘It would save your resident nutters from even having to type David.’

You contradict yourself, sonic.

By: sonic

sonic — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:30:18 +0000

If only someone could come up with Kiwi version of

http://ifyoulikeitsomuchwhydontyougolivethere.com/the-twat-o-tron/

It would save your resident nutters from even having to type David.

By: dad4justice

dad4justice — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:25:55 +0000

philu rolls his joints with pages of the Collins English Dictionary.

By: philu

philu — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:14:31 +0000

try a dictionary..oh literate one..

phil(whoar.co.nz)

By: boomtownprat

boomtownprat — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:10:59 +0000

Phil said

“if nothing else..you righties should still your hysterical over-confidence..”

Someone please translate……………

time to hit the downers buddy!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,eh

By: philu

philu — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 09:04:56 +0000

labour will claw some back..national will drop some..

..then the rest of my formula kicks in..

if nothing else..you righties should still your hysterical over-confidence..

there are a huge amount of ‘if’s facing you..

(and just quietly..from what i’ve been told..

..about that ‘neutron bomb’..?..

whoar..!..hold onto your hats..!

and that’ll kick the guts out of any lead..)

..eh..?..

chin up..!..

eh..?..duckie..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)

By: boomtownprat

boomtownprat — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:43:57 +0000

Question to Mr Phil U.

How high do you think Labour will poll come October?

Supplementary……………do you really think NZ will tolerate a political party so “dissed” by the electorate, running the country…………………………………………………Eh?

Eh….exclamation……….apostrophe……..random dot and vague punctuation…………………………..eh

By: Captain Crab

Captain Crab — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:30:56 +0000

And the Greens have exposed their own self serving ways so not so sure about the Maori Party supporting them now. Maori are after their own power base and self determination. As they should be.
Your confidence Phil, smacks of the patronisng attitude which seems prevalent with Greens and even Labour as to whom Maori will go into coalition with.

By: spector

spector — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:16:16 +0000

I wouldn’t count the “undecides” in there Phil… the “undecides” could go anywhere… that’s why they are called “undecided”. For all the undecided voters to vote solely for either Labour or Greens and not National or ACT is a statistical improbability.

By: philu

philu — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:50:40 +0000

so..you have labour..you have the greens…you have the maori party..and you have 13% ‘undecideds’..

there’s a gummint..by my calculations..

you have national currently riding high..having released no policies..

..there is no way national will sustain that level..

,,and..who exactly is your coalition partner..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)

By: Doug

Doug — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:38:57 +0000

Next thing we will see the Standard turn the graph upside-down and report Labour are leading.

By: boomtownprat

boomtownprat — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 06:17:40 +0000

PhilBest (1593) Add karma Subtract karma +0 Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 5:48 pm

Hey, Re Don Brash, the ONE thing he DID do for National that is still “live”, is, he grabbed all ACT’s voters. And National, in spite of having moved from being ACT Lite under Don to Helen Lite under John, hasn’t lost those ACT voters back to ACT, if the polls are to be believed. Why

Very good point Phil.
\

I think those persons are doing the math r.e the most effective way to vote. Their primary goal is to rid the country of Clarkism and the failed policies of Cullenomics.

When polled at present they say National as the status quo at the moment is favourable. When polls start showing (as the undoubtedly will), that Rodney will hold Epsom and the ACT message is registered, expect to see a bounce for ACT

ACT have costed, detailed policy which many in National and other parties are comfortable with

ACT obtained 2 MP’s when everyone thought it was a dead vote and Brash was ACT in drag. Expect more this time when reality bites.

By: Spider_Pig

Spider_Pig — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 06:08:30 +0000

“Got the last one quite wrong actually. Had Brash well favoured leading up to the election.”

David C shouldn’t lie about Don Brash being the bookies favourite over Labour in the 2005 election. Any quick search of the internet will reveal the historical odds. For example, at 1/08/2005, Labour was paying $1.65 and National $2.10.

Get your facts right, David C

By: PhilBest

PhilBest — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:48:28 +0000

By: boomtownprat

boomtownprat — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:47:05 +0000

Despite Clarks lack of faith in them, they need a circuit breaker. And it needs to be big. I know the lefty trolls go on about a grand left coalition, but in reality, even if Greens got 10% and Labour scraped 35%, all the other little fishes would be nuts to prop up Clark and Cullen, when the polls and as every person in this country knows, the hunger for change is insatiable.

I can think of only three things that can derail a centre right win.

1. The “neutron” bomb…….I would have imagined it would have been used about now…..or has it been used………or have the Nats countered with their own veiled threat of exposure.

2. A massive fiscally irresponsible bribe

3. A change of leader and/or finance minister.

Personally I think 2 the most likely………..hopefully we are attune to this option this time and don’t get fooled again

By: Inventory2

Inventory2 — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:19:24 +0000

I don’t know that enough has been made of the advantage that Roy Morgan gives National in Auckland. It would be interesting to see this data rolled out over other major metropolitan areas. I remember been optimistic of a National victory early on on election night 2005 where National shot out of the blocks in the provinces, only to see Labour climb back bit-by-bit as the urban electorates came in. If Labour is only supported by just over one in four Aucklanders, I’m guessing the party has a crisis on its hands.

By: virtualmark

virtualmark — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:16:17 +0000

I can remember a conversation with a good friend the day after the last election where I said my take was the election came 2 months too early for National. The votes for Labour and National were sooooo close, but it was clear even then that the month-to-month trend was votes leaking away from Labour towards National. I was (still am) surprised that Helen didn’t call an earlier election in 2005.

Fast forwarding to today … Labour are toast. Old stale toast. With mould.

In the long run Helen may look back and think that she’d have been better to get out in 2005 with a mostly-positive legacy as a strong capable leader, and then run off to a job with the WHO or FAO or someone like that. That third term has mainly bought her controversy and bitterness and it’s certainly besmirched what political legacy she had. Better to burn out than to fade away …