NZPA Political Column
July 7th, 2008 at 12:25 pm by David FarrarNZPA Political Editor Peter Wilson reviews the week (no link):
On Friday night another poll showed National holding more than 50 percent of the party vote and leading Labour by more than 20 points.
Three previous surveys during the last three weeks, taken by different polling organisations, delivered very similar results.
They all put National above 50 percent, they all showed the gap at more than 20 points.
Contrary to the Government’s comments, public opinion isn’t volatile.
It’s about a solid as it gets, and the message for Labour is about as bad as it gets.
How long will Helen keep rubbishing every single poll as extreme? And I note that the John Key attack site has stopped publishing poll results since mid May, after previously recording every single one.
The trucking industry’s protest against the latest rise in their road user charges — clogging up feeder routes into cities around the country — would normally have been expected to provoke confrontations with motorists on their way to work.
Very little of that happened, and although industry claims of nearly 100 percent public support were probably exaggerated the truckies were getting the thumbs up from drivers.
Most of them probably weren’t aware of the details behind the Government’s actions that had infuriated the industry but they knew one thing — the protest was about rising costs and the truckies were fed up.
People are fed up. They’re fed up with the price of petrol and the price of food. They’re fed up with the Reserve Bank using the mortgage rate to control inflation and they’re fed up with the slump in the housing market.
Well I doubt many understand how the Reserve Bank acts but they are certainly fed up with high prices, high interest rates and falling property prices.
Before that, many of them perceived the Government as bossy and interfering. The law change that banned smacking was the catalyst for a swing against Labour, although it was a Green Party bill.
The Electoral Finance Act was introduced late last year amid strident opposition protest and a rash of mostly bad publicity.
And they deserve to lose for both laws. The first for the blatant dishonestry around what they were doing, and the second for trying to silence its critics and legalise its own use of taxpayer money for campaigning without it counting towards their limit.
The budget in May this year delivered tax cuts, but it did nothing at all to improve the Government’s poll rating. The reaction seemed to be “thanks, but you should have given it to us three years ago”.
This set of circumstances has come about at a really bad time for a third term government, and the impact could be catastrophic.
Not just in terms of the party vote, but in individual electorates. It is possible one could see Labour reduced to a mere dozen or so electorate seats, if the electorate vote margin is similar to the party vote. And the challenge for Labour will be whether to protect incumbent MPs on the list or allow some new blood to come in.
Against this backdrop, Labour’s attacks on National’s leader John Key risk looking like desperate diversions.
Voters don’t want more negative news, they want to hear something that will make them believe things are going to get better.
They are looking to National and John Key to deliver it, and whether or not he sold his family trust shares in Tranz Rail before or after he asked a question in Parliament about the railways isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference.
Yes, Labour’s biggest concern. That plus Crosby/Textor.
Tags: NZ Politics, NZPA, Peter Wilson
July 7th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
“Against this backdrop, Labour’s attacks on National’s leader John Key risk looking like desperate diversions.”
That’s downplaying it somewhat. They’re more than that. The attacks show how dirty the left really are. The attacks are aimed at the personal destruction of John Key. The attacks are standard leftist procedure. The attacks are always designed to get people talking about things other than what they should. The attacks are designed to give Labour’s media agents something to run with.
The attacks are not going to work this time, because the mainstream media are no longer the only game in town, and they have been shamed into a more impartial style. Thanks to the blogosphere.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Are there any polls for electorates out yet? Wellington Central…??
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I agree with every word, though my criticism of the EFA would be stronger. Against the backdrop of spending money illegally they not only provide a mechanism to plunder the taxpayer but they also move laws to silence their critics. The high handed arrogance of that is beyond Muldoon (who was straight on these matters) and right towards Mugabe without the guns and the goons.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
gotta wonder how many people are signing in as SP over at TS – just to avoid parading 9th floor ties, looks like.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Yeah it’s all personal, that stuff they keep bringing up about John Key. As a potential leader of the country, his Tranz Rail Shares and his connections with Merrill Lynch should be nobody’s business but his own…
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Great polls but still only the final poll counts.
National govt must know what to do if they win. They now should be carefully working through the limited economic options they have.I believe when the books are opened Labour will have left this country, deliberately in a huge mess.
There shouldn’t be the desperation to get every vote for National by trying to act like Santa Claus. Bolger made that mistake in 1990 when they reneged on means testing superannuation. National could well spell out the fact that the economy looks disasterous, then the people will understand. National will win kudos for being at least trying to be transparent.No good saying things are good when they’re not. Expectations need to be kept under control.
New governments can lose the next election in the first year by reneging on promises.
[DPF: I agree. The economy is looking very weak and National will have to be very careful not to over promise]
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
That’s right RMM. Our economy is screwed and the government appears more concerned about rummaging through rubbish bins in order to ‘out’ JK as a flagrant overdue library book offender. He’s clear unfit to govern. While the most lying, corrupt and manipulative ‘leader’ we’ve ever had is perfect for the job.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
So a “Corrupt” PM is only a problem to you when it’s a Labour PM?
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
the problem for the Nats IMHO is that on polling day many may not wish to see any party with too big a majority and if enough decide that it may swing the vote back to the dreaded Socialist.
Maybe for we of the RIGHT election night 08s solution is a Coalition of the Damned and the Desparate.
Socialist/Greens/Jimbo//NZF/Maori/Dunny. All with a one seat majority over Nats/ACT.
What a delicious 3 years that would produce. A toxic combination unable to agree what month of the year it was all fighting whilst the economy tanks and then in the end swept away by the citizens.
Followed by a decade or more the RIGHT kind of Gumint.
HEAVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Llew, try this link http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4305/ near the middle.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
“Socialist/Greens/Jimbo//NZF/Maori/Dunny. All with a one seat majority over Nats/ACT.
What a delicious 3 years that would produce.”
that’s exactly what NZ NEEDS. It’s the only way to wake people up that how you feel is not the best way to decide how to vote. Of course, that combo wouldn’t last 3 years.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
The NZPA are notoriously pro-Labour. For journalists who for so long were enamoured of Clark to publish such a biting indictment is testament to the sour mood that seems evident even from across the Pacific. Low unemployment, moderate growth and a booming stock and property market acted as oil in the machinery of the mood of the country and shielded Labour from criticism over some of its more socially left wing adventures. The anti-smacking furore and the EFA became a bridge too far – right at the time that the economy started to turn south. Now Labour are faced with an almost perfect negative storm – 3rd tem itis, natural left wing nanny state hubris and basic commodity inflation reaching levels that affect the living standards of mortgage belt middle class NZers. When middle NZ felt comfortable and prosperous, they were prepared to give Clark the benefit of the doubt on a raft of issue. That shrug-of-the-shoulders ambivalence has been replaced with anger, impatience and downright hostility from quarters normally quiescent. If this were FPP, Labour would be cruising for an even greater hiding than 1990 on current polling.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
You got anything on Key other then the 9th floor smearing points RRM? If so what?
Good to see even you acknowledge that clark is corupt though.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
The Roy Morgan poll as supplied by Stephen at 1.44 is astonishing.
Vote:I had not realised how dramatically support for Labour has collapsed . I knew it had done so in Auckland, but look at the changes in Wellington, Christchurch and in fact across the whole country.
The lefties keep assuming that it will narrow up as we get closer to the election and people appreciate National’s policies.
I suspect that people will APPRECIATE National’s policies such as markedly increasing employability opportunities to the most vulnerable in society.
It’s looking like The Perfect Storm. The Truckoi of Hope is a foretaste of the wrath of the people on November 8th. They want freedom and I predict that we will see cataclysmic Political Climate Change. The old benchmarks of safe seats may be swept away for ever and the landscape changed for a generation. Less then 17 weeks to go now.
July 7th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
“So a “Corrupt” PM is only a problem to you when it’s a Labour PM?”
You’ve got nothing on Key. Just worthless yellow backed smears and false allegations. That works in Stalinist backwaters like Zimbabwe, but it don’t work here. Not yet anyway. Give you corrupt bastards a few more years and it will tho.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
So it was the Anti-Smacking bill that started the roll against Labour?
How conveniently the populace forget that it was National through John Key that enabled the amendment with Mr Sensible.
Whilst Helen and Sue looked on with smirks.
Like many people I hope Labour and the Greens get thoroughly trounced.
But I can’t help fearing what a man who can encourage 112 MP’s to set the CYPS and NZPolice onto decent ordinary Kiwi homes for a “smack on the Bum” could do to NZ long term?
That’s why I’m giving my Party Vote to ACT.
They were the only party to say “hey guys this isn’t right and it wouldn’t do anything to stop child abuse at all”
I don’t think I can trust National with my party vote.
Vote:What do we get John Key?
Platitudes.
July 7th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Redbaiter:
“You’ve got nothing on Key. Just worthless yellow backed smears and false allegations. That works in Stalinist backwaters like Zimbabwe, but it don’t work here. Not yet anyway. Give you corrupt bastards a few more years and it will tho.”
Hey, it KINDA DOES work already, and still does work on a certain percentage of the population, it’s just that the majority have at last got sick of the Heleban. But the MSM still WANTS to support Clark, they are only giving way grudgingly, they probably know they can’t do to John Key now what they got away with doing to Don Brash and Bill English and Jenny Shipley.
John Key MUST be quite squeaky clean really, because there is obviously a strong political espionage game being played in NZ by the Clark team, and they’re getting away with it. Watergate style theft of e-mails, cops rolling over, etc……..You wait, they’ll play as dirty as you could imagine when the election itself is on us. Look what happened last time round, the election being “thrown” for Brash thanks to acres of smear and lies provided by the MSM over Brash “links” with the EB Secret Seven…….
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I’ll be interested to see what happens after the election – assuming National form the govt. Will the “failed policies of the past” be a term that refers to the policies of the Labour govt, dominated by those who formed their political views in the 60s and 70s?
Will we instead have a government that focuses on the issues of today – how to make people more free, and to give them more choice, rather than continually telling them how to live their lives in the pursuit of standardisation?
This is the political issue of our generation – the same way that the internet is pushing away the “any colour you want so long as it is black” mindset, replacing it with “mass customisation.” Not everyone wants to live their life the same way, and many (but not all) choices are valid. The government needs to start giving people back choices, but this also means giving them responsibilities – policing can’t be based around strict rules and bureaucracy, it must be more outcomes based. People must be given the benefit of the doubt, be allowed to try new things and new ways of doing things.
This is all anathema to the Labour party. They are trying to create a country where everyone is the same in their economic lives – the same tradeoff between income and free time, the same services delivered by a central bureaucracy, rules that are designed to tell you what to do, rather than to make the costs of different choices clear and leave you to make your own decision.
Labour is the party of “govt knows best”, of “you’re too stupid to make your own decisions,” and of “the rules apply to you because you’re stupid, but not to me because I’m one of the chosen few.” National is (and should be) the party of “one law for all”, “incentives not prescriptions”, “nobody is above the law.”
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
One more delicious thing that could help here is for major power cuts to hit pre election. But we still can’t expect the MSM to give the public the story about the hydro dam projects that have been stymied by the RMA, can we? Expect more spin from them if the Nats actually tried to make an issue of this……….
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I keep seeing comments from certain commenter’s assuming the maori party will go with the Virgin Queen and her team.
Vote:What could possibly make anybody think that other than the fevered imaginings of a desperate civil servant. Have you been listening to what Horomia and Sharples have been saying? They will fence sit and use their numbers to extract favours.
The more vitriol the Virgin Queen pushes at Key the more popular he will become. Everybody is sick of the sight of her.
July 7th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
PhilBest It would seem rain will save the socilaists and we citizens as regards power cuts.
But its only by good luck and not good risk management.
We have had decades of failing to plan and planning to fail by all sides aided and abetted by the Greens who the NZ eqvualient of the Taliban as regards progress.
Its an abolsute disgrace that any business or household should even have to think about power. A good government would ensure policies were in place but then we havent had a good government for 35 plus years.
J
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Bill you shouldn’t actually read phools comments, passive inhaling can still get you a positive reading in a drug test.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“And they deserve to lose for both laws. The first for the blatant dishonesty around what they were doing, and the second for trying to silence its critics and legalise its own use of taxpayer money for campaigning without it counting towards their limit.”
In reality the “smacking bill” will account for perhaps nine more convictions for child abuse over the next ten years. It was simply blown out of all proportion and reality by Christian fundamentalist groups in conjuncture with National.
The EFA is good law. Critics of the government have faced no difficulty in getting their message out, and government departments aren’t legally able to produce election advertisements, and unfortunately for National it makes taking large, secret undemocratic donations illegal. Though I agree that the process used by Labour to create the legislation wasn’t open enough.
So far, All I’ve seen offered on kiwiblog is some small reasons to not vote for Labour, and no reasons to vote for National (no major policy released so far that differs substantially from current government policy).
We do have thee 1990s as a huge reason to not vote for National however. i.e. Virtually no enforceable employment rights, a stagnation in income levels for most working age people, a doubling of child poverty levels and violent youth crime levels.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
But Roger, no one really needs a reason to vote National. Most people I’ve spoken to will vote for anyone but Labour, so why would National risk fucking it all up by saying a word?
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Redbater Says: “You’ve got nothing on Key.”
Until Key satisfactorily rebuffs these allegations then they are out there. His going pale and attempting to change the subject on TV just makes him look guilty and does nothing to dispel the idea that there might be quite a lot in this. And certainly your nonsensical explosions (“blahblahblah is so typical of the left…”) don’t do anything to dispel them either, when you are insistent on (incapable of?) putting up anything like an actual FACT in support of your strange opinions!
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Actually Roger, perhaps those 9 convictions would be evidence that the Act is working – e.g. the person using a riding crop will now get convicted…
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I actually admired helen davis back at the begining of her first term, but i remember my wifes words when the airforce was axed, she said ( i dont recall that she said she was going to axe our air defence force) , then the lies began ,but what REALLY got me was the driver and police been hung out for the vultures to peck over HELEN DIDNT KNOW THE SPEED going to the rugby match YER RIGHT , THE BOSS SHOULD ALLWAYS TAKES THE RAP WHEN HE SHE IT FUCKS UP ,but the bitch witch looked the other way gutless bitch, clark is a dog turd to me, lies apon lies apon lies a true liar . those that kneel at the alter that is helen davis nee clark have major personal problems is she being straight up with you , the scoreboard says NO, SUCKERS
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
“Until Key satisfactorily rebuffs these allegations then they are out there.”
How typical that a Stalinist like you is so ignorant of the principle that has underpinned free nations for so long- “a person is innocent until proven guilty”. Your smears and your demands that Key prove them untrue is straight out of the Joe Stalin handbook. Foul minded, ignorant and under educated, you don’t know what you are, but worse, you don’t know what you have done to this country.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Im waiting for the plods to arrest a asian leader and charging this person with virgilanty actions, goff and the liarbour party have to show domanance by force , THE STUPID FUCKWIT LIARBOUR party have lost the asian VOTE but bless be to them the pacific island hoddie community still loves liarbour for the benifits provided, ALL SORTS OF BENIFITS and we are paying these benifits to druggies drunks and burnt out liarbour party idiots
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
“Hey, it KINDA DOES work already, and still does work on a certain percentage of the population”
Yeah you’re right, and thanks for the reminder of what knuckle dragging lowlife vote Labour.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Damn. Agreeing with Redbaiter.
The various allegations are only peripherally related to John Key’s role as prime minister. Almost exactly the same argument as one I’ve had before – the argument that it shows dishonesty therefore it’s relevant. Like, say, the questions about our current Prime Minister’s marriage. And, much like those questions, it doesn’t matter what you say, people will believe whatever they want, and the smear will stick.
In the same way that I have consistently said that I don’t see the allegations about Helen’s marriage as being in any way relevant to her job, I’ll also say that I don’t see any of these allegations to be relevant to John Key’s doing his job. I don’t think that anybody is seriously suggesting that he sought to or did profit from questions in parliament about NZ Rail.
The difference that I do see is that the MSM have never put those other allegations to Helen and forced her to respond to them, nor have those allegations been tabled in parliament. But if one is relevant, so is the other.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Redbaiter, speaking of “knuckledragging lowlife”, have you read Bob Jones’ opinion piece on the latest NZCPR, titled “Homo Degeneratus”? I posted an excerpt on the thread below “How to gain a bigger benefit”.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
nome
Vote:Your tin ear is as pronounced as Clark’s. Your benign view of the political effects of the s59 amendment (which differ from the legal effects) and your support for the EFA puts you in a shrinking minority. You need to get out of your academic echo chamber of like thinking lefties.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Agree, Kiwi in America, the socialists go on about Key’s “policy vacuum” yet they can’t see that on the few defining issues such as these ones that they keep defending regardless, THOSE are precisely the policy differences that have cost them the support of Joe average Kiwi………..Key doesn’t NEED to introduce policy in any OTHER areas ………. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
Prehaps Dear Leader, RRM and Roger should try to get JK on a charge of been a witch. They could have a large state trial and televised it to the whole country. JK must prove he is not a witch and is pure of heart, to do this he must have 1/2 a tonne of cement chained to his legs and is pushed into a deep lake. He is then pulled up 15 minutes later and if he is still alive he is without a doubt a witch and not fit to lead the country. That should just about do it.
Vote:July 7th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
now..you wouldn’t be trying to pass that off as an orginal thought/idea now..?
would you bloody-hands-bob..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:July 8th, 2008 at 9:41 am
The EFA is good law – Yeah Left!
As for the allegations regarding JK. I have it, on good authority, from a man who has the inside track on these things, that RRM is a shirt-tail lifter.
Vote: