The 2008 Labour Party List
Labour has released its 2008 party list, with an optimistic 77 list candidates. They have been quite bold with their rankings, which is good to see.
Labour has 85 candidates in total. 8 are standing for electorates only, 62 are standing for electorate and list and there are a massive 15 list only candidates.
The eight electorate candidates not on the list are in Ilam, Kaikoura, Manukau East, Manurewa, Napier, New Plymouth, Waikato (no candidate selected yet which is bizarre) and Whangarei. Four of them are MPs – Hawkins, Robertson, Duynhoven and Fairbrother. This means Fairbrother is out of Parliament barring a miracle in Napier.
Labour currently has 31 seats. Polls show them behind in Te Tai Tonga and Ikaroa-Rawhiti. The latest Colmar Brunton Poll (the only one which asks electorate vote) has National at 50% and Labour at 40% on the elctorate vote. On my electoral pendulum this has Labour losing just five seats – Taupo, Rotorua, Otaki, Hamilton West and West Coast-Tasman.
Note this is not a prediction. Thsi is simply applying the gap in the polls on a linear basis to the 2005 majorities on the new boundaries. I happen to think National will pick up more seats than that, but this is the best scenario available on the public polls.
So that leaves Labour with 24 electorate seats. On the time and date weighted average of the public polls, Labour has 36.3% and there is 3.2% wasted vote giving them an effective vote of 37.5%. That would give them 45 MPs – 24 electorate MPs and 21 list MPs.
So who will be in the Labour Caucus? Well remember that Hawkins, Robertson, and Duynhoven are not on the list at all. But let us look at those who are:
On this list there would be several new Labour MPs, if their current polling holds up. They are:
- Rajen Prasad, Chief Families Commissioner – in on 22%
- Jacinda Ardern, former Clark staffer – very highly respected – in on 25%
- Raymond Huo, rumoured to help significantly with funding – in on 26%
- Phil Twyford, former Oxfam head – in on 30%
- Carol Beaumont – in if wins Maungakiekie or on 31%
- Kelvin Davis – Northland school principal – in on 31%
- Carmel Sepuloni – young Pacific Islander working at Auckland Uni – in on 35%
- Stuart Nash – defeated by Russell Fairbrother but more likely to be an MP – in on 36%
- Clare Curran – will win Dunedin South
- Grant Robertson – if he wins Wellington Central
- Chris Hipkins – if he wins Rimutaka
- Iain Lees-Galloway – if he wins Palmerston North
- Brendon Burns – if he wins Christchurch Central
13 new MPs would not be bad. In fact you have to congratulate Labour for finally not protecting their incumbent MPs. They should have done it last time, but better late than never. And the new intake are rather more diverse than the normal union/academic background of most of them.
Now which MPs are at risk?
- Russell Fairbrother – dog tucker
- Lesley Soper – only back in 42% – also dog tucker, and no surprise
- Louisa Wall – huge surprise here. She had really impressed me to date. But she has an unwinnable position unless Labour gets 41%
- Dave Heroera – out unless they get 40% – no loss.
- Martin Gallgher – out unless they get 39% or win Hamilton West
- Mahara Okeroa – out unless he can retain Te Tai Tonga or Labour gets 38%
- Mark Burton – out unless he holds Taupo (most unlikely on new boundaries) or Labour get 38%
- Judith Tizard – out unless she holds Auckland Central or Labour get 37%
- Damien O’Connor -out unless he holds West Coast-Tasman or Labour gets 37%
- Rick Barker – - out if Labour drop below 34%
- Darien Fenton – out if Labour drop below 34%
- Ashraf Choudary – out if Labour drop below 33%
- Steve Chadwick – out if she loses Rotorua and Labour drops below 32%
Labour’s current polling would see nine go, but if the latest scandals push them down further, a further four MPs at immediate risk. The real surprise to me is Louisa Wall. She is brand new and had promise.
So what will Labour’s Caucus look like? Well on the current public polling scenario giving them 45 MPs, it would be:
- Only 8 MPs or 18% from the South Island
- 38% female, which isn’t bad at all
- 49% would be aged in their 50s though
- They would have only six Maori MPs – the same number as National! They would be Horomia, Mahuta, Jones, Ririnui, Mackey, and Davis
- Four Pacific Island MPs – Laban, Sio, Chauvel and Sepuloni
- Three Asian MPs – Choudary, Prasad, and Huo
Now again this is just a scenario based on public polls. The electorates won or lost will differ, and that changes things. But overall Labour look to be in pretty good shape even if they drop in the polls – they will get some new talent in, and most of the MPs they risk losing, are losable. I’d be thinking I did a pretty good job if I sat on the Labour List Ranking Committee.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Great to see Labour doing so well! Yeah right. I don’t care how many female, Asian MPs etc. they get, I just want them to have as few as possible overall.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Damien O’Connor and Louisa Wall will be a loss but otherwise it is a good clear out of some dead wood…could be a good election for them to lose.
August 31st, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Your version of the Labour list has better news for Lesley Soper (at 44) than the one in the Dom Post (http://www.stuff.co.nz/4675636a11.html). Labour can’t get a clear message out if it tries. Perhaps I should check with Chris Trotter to see if it this yet another right wing conspiracy.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:04 pm
It’s a pretty good list from my perspective though I tend to agree that Lousia Wall is a surprise.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:30 pm
The Labour Party is continuing its embourgeoisment process – whereby the party is trying to make the Parliament more middle class rather than representative of wider NZ society. Of course, when the party was established in 1916 as the political wing of the trade union movement, it officially aimed to increase ‘the visible, physical presence in Parliament of representatives of the working class’ (Gustafson, 1989: p.211). Ironically (or tragically), it now functions to give a presence in Parliament for politicians from the middle classes and to formulate and market policies that are attractive to voters from all classes and income groups. I’ve written a blog post detailing the embourgeoisment process of the Labour Party, which you can read here:
http://liberation.typepad.com/liberation/2008/04/political-par-3.html
As with National’s 2008 candidate list, it’d be good to see the class/occupation background of the candidates and likely caucus.
Helen Kelly from the CTU must be very happy to see that Carol Beaumont is likely to get into Parliament. But the happiness will have nothing to do with getting another union bureaucrat into Parliament to represent workers – Kelly will just be relieved to get her disliked deputy out of the building! And certainly, if Beaumont’s history in the CTU is anything to go by, she won’t be too bothered with representing workers.
I see that Jacinda Ardern is at 20 on the list. She currently works in London for Jacqui Smith – the rightwing Labour Home Secretary. Let’s hope Ardern’s politics aren’t as bad as her boss’.
And it’s certainly interesting to see that the expected ethnic diversity of the Labour Party is not likely to be all that different to the National Party.
Bryce
http://www.liberation.org.nz
August 31st, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Typical Labor teacher, unionist,trade union,do gooder,political assistants and social worker hacks with no sign of business knowledge.
Bloody hopeless crowd for future strategic planning and creating a new government in three terms.
National’s list reflects diversity.Labour has abandoned the regional areas with people like Fairbrother and Duynhoven being not on the list.
With all the nonsense going on with Auntie Helen, what percentage will Labour get ? 25% perhaps.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Only eight Labour MPs in the South Island – while it’s not a good reflection on the party’s view of the mainland’s importance, we may be better off without any more of them
August 31st, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Jacinda Ardern? Nice girl but zero experience in anything except politics. She’s an idealogue, and will make a terrible MP.
August 31st, 2008 at 4:59 pm
“…and will make a terrible MP.”
So they’ll fit right in, helmet.
BTW, WhaleOil points out TGIF has an article on Darien Fenton’s qualifications or lack thereof.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:08 pm
The ‘nuiances’ are interesting. Last time round I’m pretty sure that Clayton Cosgrove decided to forgo the List. This time he’s having a bob both ways. Does that suggest that Labour is in the deep doggie do in Waimakariri? Last time NZF was a very respectible 3rd but Mark has now fled the scene. Looks like Cosgrove is running scared too.
August 31st, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Louisa Wall at 43, while Moana “Patsy” Mackey gets 25, two better than Charles Chauvel. It’s just a jump to the left…
August 31st, 2008 at 5:40 pm
The worst thing about this list is that some of them will be voted into parliament.
Farrrk, I’d be spewing if I was ranked lower that Werepig Sutton! The shame! And yet, the list is probably a very accurate reflection of how valuable Jordan Carter is to the party.
August 31st, 2008 at 6:14 pm
“We’re rejuvenating”.
With Mark Burton and Mahara Okeroa at 39 and 40…. Yeah right!!!!
August 31st, 2008 at 6:15 pm
god i hate MMP.
how many of the list are ex-trade unionists?
how many from the meat packers union
August 31st, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Interesting comment Bryce – given that the trade union wing is so dominant in electorate candidate selection.
August 31st, 2008 at 7:41 pm
What you guys have to remember is that anyone can stand for Parliament!
No CV is required! No experience! No track record!
The Biggest Company in the Country and we choose PEOPLE WITH NO QUALIFICATIONS AT ALL! Not as though they are head hunted at a salary of $10 M per annum, plus bonuses and expenses.
10 highly qualified, highly experienced Directors at $10M etc, with equally experienced Officials would in my book be a better bet that 121 inexperienced and untested MPs that we elect to run the country, along with the hundreds of appointed supporting bureaucracy, again highly inexperienced in the business world!
How stupid are we New Zealanders? No wonder we are the most corrupt of the Western Countries. Privileges Committee what a farce? Every Party trying to cloud the issue in order to favour the re-election of their party and continue the raping of the Genuine taxpayer?
August 31st, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Jacinda Ardern, Clare Curran, Brendon Burns… yet again proving that under MMP, becoming an MP is doled out as a reward for toadying above and beyond the call of duty, rather than a fair judgement of the candidates’ merits recognising the importance of the position to the country.
How much longer can we tolerate an electoral system that fosters unthinking fealty to the leader (of whatever party) rather than independent thought and a determination to apeak your mind and to represent the best interests of your electorate no matter what?
August 31st, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Very uninspring.
How did that fat waste of space from the East Cape get #5. From your list DPF it looks like he isn’t even running for a electorate. Must be a bit scared of the Fox.
Agree totally Rex. Do Helens bidding and get a seat in Parliment and all the baubles at our expense.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:31 pm
What ever happened to Brendan “I’m running for Botany and someone turned my Aunties power off”?
August 31st, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Brendan withdrew for personal reasons.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Gone back to Aussie with any luck. To quote Muldoon “that will raise the intelligence of both countries”
August 31st, 2008 at 8:44 pm
What personal reasons? He didn’t have any distant aunties left to pull the sympathy vote?
August 31st, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Who is Manukau East? They may have a real fight on their hands. I’ve heard Mr Bakshi is rallying some big support.
August 31st, 2008 at 8:57 pm
“What ever happened to Brendan “I’m running for Botany and someone turned my Aunties power off”?”
Head over to Whale Oil do a search and you’ll see some interesting dialogue that may have contributed.
August 31st, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Brendan was a liability, even to the Labour Party! He and Whaleoil had a great bit of biffo, in which Whale wiped the floor with him. Remember, Brendans big claim to “fame” was to cuddle the corpse of “auntie” and so he really needed to be taken down a peg.
Great to see that my party has more faith in me than Labour has in Jordan Carter! Oh I feel so warm inside
September 1st, 2008 at 5:07 am
It’s still disappointing that any of these clowns get back into parliament.
It would be good to see Labour fall below 30% on election day. Mid to low twenties even better. A complete result if they beat Bill English’s record.