August Public Polls
September 5th, 2008 at 11:37 am by David FarrarThe montly Curia newsletter will be out this weekend, with details of all the August polls in NZ, the US, the UK, Asutralia and Canada. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.
As the graph shows, there has been a huge reduction in the gap between National and Labour in the last two months. National still could form a Government, but Labour are starting to develop options also.
The Greens and NZ First both dropping away this month and the Maori Party and ACT both making some gains.
These graphs include the latest Roy Morgan poll. I’ll be updating Curiablog later today with the latest data which will update the time and size weighted average in the sidebar.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Not commenting on the substance…. just a minor request regarding layout….
In the minor parties graph, would it be (easily) possible to visually highlight the 5% horizontal line?
Slightly thicker, different colour, or something like that….
It’s no big deal, because I do know how to read a graph, but I just thought it would help to visually identify who’s making the cut and who isnt.
Cheers.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
what a difference two months makes..
..why are polls so contradicting each other..?
..morgan has the greens on 8.5%..
..and act not moving at all..
..the complete opposite of the results here..
..and is the ‘ashcroft-factor’ in there..?
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Can someone please explain why support for Labour appears to be galvanising, despite the dubious behaviour of Helen throughout the Winston saga?
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
This from Roy Morgan:
“The lack of clear policy direction from the opposition National Party has given (Prime Minister) Helen Clark and Labour renewed hope of winning an unlikely election victory, as National has yet to make the case for why it deserves to form the next government,” they said.
WTF?
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
philu, it’s ALL polls. I wouldn’t look at contradictions so much as trends.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
siobhan, you would agree with The Standard then in that the Morgan analyses are consistently flawed!
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
siobhan, I saw that too. A Lack of clear policy direction?!? He’s been knocking back the ComPost kool-aid!
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
As long as John (me too) Key continues with his “plan” of playing the ball and not the man the gap will continue to close.
It is now obvious that a growing number of Kiwi’s are plain fucking stupid, the seem oblivious to the lies, smears and corruption of Clark and the Labour party.
Key needs to hammer Clark at EVERY chance and remind the voters that she cannot be trusted, he must attack her now zero credibility, Key should also go after the media, I am sick of seeing him on the defensive when confronted with lefty media hacks such as Espiner, Garner and Hosking, Key should get stuck into them and use each and every chance to remind them that they seem to overlook the corruption of Clark and Labour.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
The lack of clear policy direction is a bit harsh, or at least the suggestion of a lack of policy release it is. Perhaps it is referring to the lack of policy differentiation Although I seriously doubt that swinging voters are going back to Labour because National isn’t touching WFF.
So why are the polls contracting – particularly when Labour is (apparently) so damn unpopular. I think you have to give (grudging) credit for Labour’s attack lines. Even in their darkest days they have been consistent with the “secret agenda” and Slippery Key bollocks. Combined with the dirty tricks of the secret taping, some piss poor partisan journalism by TV3 re the same, Maurice running off at the mouth and a couple of other cock ups and maybe that is getting some traction amongst the swingers?
By rights the Winston thing should have finished Clark off. Clark has been misleading at best and her minister is a great big hypocritical liar. But as exciting as this scandal is for those of us who follow politics I suspect it is wearing thin for joe public. 95% odd of NZ already know Winston is a snake and not to be trusted and so each new revelation is just another piece of background noise. Clark, to her credit, has kept Winston from throwing his toys and may have reduced damage to Labour.
I also think National has played in to Clark’s hands a little. For all the outstanding work that has been done they are still scared of the spotlight and have a habit of reacting to Clark’s jibes rather than setting the agenda.
Not sure when the Morgan poll was taken. Will be interesting to see if the movement is similar in other polls.
In any event bring on the campaign!
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
The debates especially.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
the Morgan Poll shows that 48% of voters support a corrupt political party propping up a corrupt Socialist lead government.
Just another reason to introduce my late Grandaddys plan to have every voter complete and pass an IQ test and a Politcal Knowledge test before being given their voting forms
As its stands with have almost half the voting population lacking the intelligence and the information to caste an infromed vote
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
The Roy Morgan was a smaller sample size (840) and taken over a long period (a full two weeks) It’s hardly a snapshot.
I also think that the collapse of NZF vote is interesting…Traditionally their vote is made up of 50% right leaning and 50% left leaning. The right leaning ones deserted them ages ago, Now the left lot are too, but going to Labour.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Can anybody remember what the polls were like before the last election?, what was the gap?
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
gd,
you make a good point about making informed decisions.
I not so sure that getting people to pass an IQ test is the way but that is just my view lol,
but that takes us back to the question, how do we get people more informed? So many uninformed voters vote based on stereotypes, Labour increases welfare and National privatizes everything.
So how can be get the country to become more informed?, the media is not very good at it. It is impossible to get an unbiased decision
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
big bruv,
i have the graph of poll results at home,
if my mind serves me correct, in August Labour were 5 or 6 points behind, then when the announced the student loan policy that helped them across the line.
Also i think the poor performance of Don Brash in the TV3 debates helped Labour across the line.
Although he did get better as the campaign progressed public speaking was not a strength.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
yl
I thought as much, it looks like we might see another three years of crime, lies and corruption unless Key develops some balls in the next month.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
big bruv,
yes, Key does seem to be a better speaker in public and that will help National out.
I think that National will find it tough going in these next few weeks if we see more of these ‘leaks’ happen. They seem to be very easy to spin for the left.
Also, mmp will be the true winner becuase all Labour needs is to be within 5 or 6 points and be over 38%.
I think that it is well established now that they will not out poll National on the day, but they dont need to.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
no no..it’s actually that we’re getting much clearer on the ‘policy direction’..
..and the realisation that ‘naice’ mr key..is just yr same old run of the mill natty..
..and one who talks out of both sides of his mouth..
..and that you want to ‘privatise..privatise’!..by any other name..
..and are using focus groups to tell you what to tell us..
..and closing any of your spokespeople down..
..whenever they let slip ‘the truth’..
..do i need to list them..?
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Can anybody tell me if it is possible for Clark to “postpone” the election for six months on the basis that we need to give Winston time to clear his name and that this postponement would be in the interest of “democracy”
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
BB
Vote:Are you suggesting Clark has been having lessons from the commodore?
September 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
The only realistic way would be to work informative (subliminal?) messages into the scripts of SHortland Street & America’s Next Top Model.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Big Bruv said:
“Key needs to hammer Clark at EVERY chance and remind the voters that she cannot be trusted, he must attack her now zero credibility, Key should also go after the media, I am sick of seeing him on the defensive when confronted with lefty media hacks such as Espiner, Garner and Hosking, Key should get stuck into them and use each and every chance to remind them that they seem to overlook the corruption of Clark and Labour.”
Agreed, he needs to get on Breakfast with Paul Henry more often. Laughed my tits off at Henry’s “grilling” of Key on Tuesday.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
llew
Speaking of subliminal messages have you noticed how often Kiwibank adverts are appearing on our screens at the moment?, I wonder who approved the massive increase in advertising spend and I wonder if the fact that we have an election on the horizon is simply a coincidence.
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Freethinker
I would not put it past her at all, I am not suggesting that she will cancel the election altogether more that she wants to buy herself another six months to let the gap in the polls close even more, I can just see the press release now….
Ms Clark said “in the interests of democracy and the interests of fairness I am today announcing a six month postponement of the election, I feel that we need to let the Winston Peters investigation run its course, Mr Peters needs the chance to clear his name and not to have that battle being fought during an election campaign where he may be tainted by the proceedings”.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Na, at that point she would be torn to bits by the GG.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
This GG?
I think not Neil, Clark has done a great job of putting her people in all the top jobs, you only need to look at the pathetic job Margaret Wilson does as speaker to see that.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
>>Speaking of subliminal messages have you noticed how often Kiwibank adverts are appearing on our screens at the moment?
I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a barrage of KiwiRail ads just in time for the election too
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
As I noted on another thread, this poll in some ways is bad news for Labour. The previous Roy Morgan poll had Labour 34%, Winston First 6.5%, total 40.5% of votes in parliament. It now has Labour 38%, Winston First 2.5%, total 38% votes in parliament. The votes have moved NZF to Labour, that doesn’t improve their position. And because Winston is now under threshold, they are worse off.
Of course, the trend remains a concern – but if most of the trend is just NZ First voters moving to Labour (before Helen admitted she was complicit) it is less concerning.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Who the hell cares if there are more Kiwibank ads?! There are other banks out there too, we have a choice about which one we use, if you don’t like Kiwibank, go somewhere else. Kiwibank is not even close to a parallel with advertising on government-only initiatives like WFF and Kiwisaver.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I believe there’s a much simpler explanation. National was polling well above 50% and it looked like they would get an absolute majority. The average punter seems to want to rid themselves of Labour, but they don’t want a National absolute majority – which is why we’re seeing an “accordian” effect. As soon as it looks like Labour et al might be able to form a government we’ll see an upswing towards National again – but if they look like having an absolute majority then support will drift from National. Expect a bounce again in the next set of polls.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Is it just me or is this beginning to feel like an AB’s RWC quarterfinal?
Vote:I think the damage of the secret tapes was only compounded by the absolutely stupidity of Maurice Williamson however I really think the Nats should back off Winston – (Rodney’s doing a fine job) and start focussing on things like the crime wave in Sth Auckland and Law and Order in general.
I have seen nothing from the Nats on the 2004 ‘Project Equity’, instead they’re beating a horse that’s gonna die anyway.
Time to take the gloves off
Grow some nuts Mr Key and get dirty
September 5th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Liabour and the Greens now hold the lead although the Maori Party could be the kingmakers and they will demand a high price. ……….How the Liabour party have done so well mystifies me. My perception has been John Key has looked strong and decisive, Clark harrassed, despondent, and weak. Key can hardly roll out detailed policy if the promotion of it is going to conflict with the Electoral Finance Act. John McCAIN reeled off what his party stood for and what the democrats stood for in rousing fashion this afternoon perhaps Key needs to watch it and take notice.
Vote:September 5th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
“..My perception has been John Key has looked strong and decisive, Clark harrassed, despondent, and weak..”
you don’t watch questiontime..do you baxter..?
..cos’ the opposite to your ‘perception’..is the reality..
..clark is the one who is ‘strong and decisive’..
..and key the ‘harrased/despondant/weak’..one..
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
Vote:September 6th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
To big bruv.
No, the incoming Lange-Palmer government in 1984 passed a law requiring an election every three years regardless.
Vote:So an election on the last Saturday of July 2008 means there has to be one by, or before the last Saturday of July 2011.
September 6th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Is the average kiwi a flaming moron?
Vote:Its disturbing how people seem not to really think anymore about real issues.
How can Liarbore actually be gaining!!
Maybe its already to late for NZ, here’s hoping the polls are wrong, just think what would happen if liarbore got in again!
I think i’m gonna be sick.