Comments on: Benson-Pope campaigning hard

By: OECD rank 22 kiwi

OECD rank 22 kiwi — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 14:55:19 +0000

Is DBP going to do his best impression of a dirty rat bastard by running as an independent?

By: Grant Michael McKenna

Grant Michael McKenna — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 19:44:46 +0000

Of course, a nice squabble on the left could result in many of their voters staying away- as regular readers will know, I’ve been keen on DBP standing for quite a while. Having him on the loose during the campaign will be fun- and Conway Powell will probably hold his 9000 votes. The left split won’t just be Benson-Pope and Curran; it seems certain that the Alliance will campaign, the Alliance has been getting student supporters out already.
Conway Powell is rather hoping that DBP stands; he has the belief that this could get him in- but I say not to say this, as it could make DBP decide not to stand. So as unpopular as it makes me, I’ll say it again as I’ve said it repeatedly- I must say that there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get National’s candidate Mr Conway Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will.
And if I’m wrong, well I won’t mind.

By: Duxton

Duxton — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 07:25:10 +0000

Perhaps DBP is just looking for an excuse to kiss babies?

By: theodoresteel

theodoresteel — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 04:51:33 +0000

s.russell

In 2002 the National candidate got about 5000 votes in Dunedin South. In 2005 Powell almost doubled this. The major gain for national was at this election. there is likely to be very little more give to National or Powell in this election. While it would be great to see him in parliament and a National MP in Dunedin, McKenna is right on the money.

By: Mike Collins

Mike Collins — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 04:35:58 +0000

Heh – this has now been listed on iPredict. Lol.

[DPF: Yes I suggested it after someone asked for it in comments]

By: Neil

Neil — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 03:27:38 +0000

I wouldn’t want to win the seat. Brother and sister-in-law campaigned 12 years ago for National and described it as real “tiger country”.
I love Dunedin, did tertiary ed there but that South Dunedin/Mosgiel area has some strange people there, some willing to die for the Red Flag and still fighting the old class war.
Don’t believe B-P will win it after the heavies get going in the electorate.
I hope National does not win it, simply because we don’t want too many MP’s with nothing to do but cause trouble-witness 1990 and people like Gilbert Myles,Hamish McIntyre,Michael Laws(Sends shivers up my spine) and Cam Campion.
A coalition with UF.Act and possibly the Maori Party would be better than having some troublesome tail end charlies

By: s.russell

s.russell — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 03:16:36 +0000

The principle “What I say three times is true” only applies in the world of Lewis Carroll.

It is true that Powell is highly unlikely to beat Curran in a 1-on-1. As Labour candidate, Benson-Pope outpolled Dr Powell by 2 to 1 in 2005 (56% to 26%).

But with national polls showing National going from 39% to around 50%, ie picking up about 1/6 of the non-National vote, you would expect Powell to get about 38%. Lets call that 35%. Not nearly enough to beat Curran 1-on-1 of course.

The Labour candidate vote would (on the same poll basis – ie losing about 15% of its 2005 vote) slip to to 49%, which we shall generously call 50%.

If Benson-Pope took just a third of those votes off Curran (17%), Powell wins.

Now, I admit that this is a bit rough and ready. Benson-Pope might take votes off Powell. What would happen to votes for minor party candidates?

Never-the-less, it is quite easy to imagine a scenario where Benson-Pope splits the left vote and allows Powell to win. If (a big if) Benson-Pope does get significant support, it could easily be a three-way split where anyone could win (just like Tauranga in 1999).

By: PhilBest

PhilBest — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:57:12 +0000

Grant Michael McKenna (your name sounds like you should have some ballad written about you), you are probably right, WTF IS it with voters in Dunedin? Whatever happened to the dour conservative Scot?

By: Grant Michael McKenna

Grant Michael McKenna — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:38:01 +0000

And yet again I must say that there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get National’s candidate Mr Conway Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will. To repeat; there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get Mr Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will. That is to say, there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get Mr Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will.
Locally people are saying that there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get Mr Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will.

I’ll keep repeating this at every opportunity until he does stand, safe in the knowledge that there is a slight swing to National but it is not sufficient to get Mr Powell elected. Mr Benson-Pope can stand safe in the knowledge that he will not cost Labour the seat- either he will win it, or less likely, Ms Curran will.

By: gd

gd — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:26:58 +0000

Well Philbest Its difficult not to

BYW Will his billboards have him “in costume” And will the strap line be “Smack me You know I like it”

By: PhilBest

PhilBest — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:11:24 +0000

Notice how every Benson-Pope thread degenerates into a joke-fest?

By: Mike Collins

Mike Collins — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:54:16 +0000

I would like to see that stock listed on iPredict – “Will DBP run as an electorate candidate for any party or as an independent in the 2008 election?”.

By: coventry

coventry — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:47:36 +0000

He doesn’t have ‘the balls’ to run as an independent.

Mind you, word on the street is that Spalding are interesting in sponsoring his latest venture. I guess they will take anything on that will help drive up sales.

By: LC

LC — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:45:34 +0000

So all the campaigning he’s doing now counts towards Labours expenditure right?

Then when he resigns he gets media attention and labour get stuck with the bill (so to speak).

Good strategy.

By: go NZ

go NZ — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:43:12 +0000

Sounds like a bit of a racquet to me

By: David Farrar

David Farrar — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:40:43 +0000

He is currently a Labour MP and can hand out Labour material. Later this week he will announce he is standing and he will be automatically expelled from Labour. I suspect he will resign first to head that off. From that date on he can not promote any material that promotes Labour without the permission of Mike Smith.

By: Nefarious

Nefarious — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:37:49 +0000

From the headline it sounds like he’s doing most of his campaigning at the local high school gates.

By: dave strings

dave strings — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:30:07 +0000

Indeed. How does he fit in under the EFA? Particularly if he runs as an indepenent !

By: Christopher

Christopher — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 01:09:24 +0000

I hope those flyers are authorized……… (I smell an EFA issue coming)