New Zealand First polling
For those interested, I have done a post on Curiablog with a graph of how all six polling companies have placed NZ First support. One company seems to be consistently different to the other five.
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Tags: curiablog, Polls, Winston First
September 19th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Simple Answer: Roy Morgan only phone rest homes located within the 07 region.
September 19th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
so..dpf..are you going on the record as predicting the demise of peters at the election..?
..(we all know you ‘want it’..
..but..can’t you smell the backlash..?
..of course peters will crack 5%..
..and i am puzzled that all our local political ‘experts’ are claiming nz first voters are ex-labour..able to bewon back..
..clark may well win some..but it won’t be ‘back’..
..my understanding is that most nz first voters are disaffected nattys.’.
..and that post-election surveys have shown nz first voters have/had expectations peters would go with national..
..there is one more factor you seem to be ignoring as far as a possiblr source of peters support at election time..
..and that is that peters’ stock with maori is the highest it has been for many a long year..
..there is a strong feeling/groundswell amongst many maori..
..that peters is being targetted/conspired against..
..because he is an ‘uppity maori’..
..and some maori will feel that strongly enough..
..to give him their vote..
..if only to ensure the enemy ‘dosen’t win’..
..and don’t forget the wins peters has got for the elderly..flow to elderly maori also..
..peters will be back..dpf..
..staring down key..
..phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 19th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Lay off the dak, Phil
September 19th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Also interesting that Roy Morgan consistently tracks the Greens higher than all the other polls while being at the lower end of the scale with regards to polling the Maori Party. I’m sure wiser heads than mine might be able to come up with possible explanations or theories as to why.
September 19th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
DPF
Any chance you could do the same for the Greens?
[DPF: Yes - go check curiablog]
September 19th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
“..DPF
Any chance you could do the same for the Greens?..”
wot..?..take an active role in a conspiracy to destroy jeanette fitzsimons/the green party..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
[DPF: Only if Jeanette starts lying]
September 19th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
thanks for this DPF Sure looks like Morgan is a little bit off the pace as compared to the averages
coventry may be right Also note that the Greens always poll higher on the day than in between elections
Could this be the young ones living and voting offshore that arent reflected in the ongoing polls.
how do the pollsters get a really representative sample if they only call landlines?
September 19th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
More likely that true greenies wouldn’t own a phone, so therefore can’t get polled by Morgan & Co.
September 19th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Pleeze pleeze pleeze don’t let there be 5% of Kiwis who are THAT stuffed in the head that they STILL trust their dear winsome Winston…..
September 19th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
The nats must have been absolutely spewing when they saw this poll though. All that effort and he actually increases in popularity…what does Winston actually have to do to get offside with the nutty 5% who keep returning him to parliament? I guess regardless of what happens with the various investigations, the court of public opinion will make its own judgement about his actions (and Labour continuing to protect him) in a few weeks time.
September 19th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Whoar said: “.peters will be back..dpf..”
Isn’t it a delicious irony to see a Luddite, a true loser (albeit a good cook), rooting for the venal and corrupt Peters.
You can’t deny the strong bond between these two unsavoury characters.
September 19th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
DPF perhaps you can explain this question about polling. I don’t understand: if the margin of error is so much lower for smaller parties than for larger parties, then why is the reported result for small parties so volatile?
[DPF:Probably due to sampling errors or differences in methodology]
September 19th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
philu is right that “most nz first voters are disaffected nattys … and that post-election surveys have shown nz first voters have/had expectations peters would go with national.”
From memory there was a poll that said 90% of NZ First voters would prefer National to Labour.
I think this is the major reason why Helen Clark is backing Peters: He is tapping into a political market she cannot reach, and the voters he might win over are people who would not (in the main) otherwise vote Labour. With she and Peters “joined at the hip” in an “axis” this is wonderful for her. Even though her support for him is costing her, it is worth it because it increases the total vote of her bloc. She may even end up encouraging Labour supporters to vote for NZ First to get him over the 5% threshold.
The danger (for her) is that supporting Peters costs her votes to National and that Peters loses anyway. But losing by a big margin is not much worse than losing by a small one, and winning is everything, so it is worth the risk.
September 19th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
A commentator on Colin’s blog was saying that she had information that only 2 in 100 people phoned are responding. I suspect that includes engaged, no answer etc but it still seems high. Do you know if that is ballpark? And does that overly distort the poll or are “no responses” generally across the board?
[DPF: The suggested 2% response rate is out by a magnitude or so]
September 19th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
How do morgan compare with the other parties?
September 19th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
The margin of error on this poll, when considering just the NZ First voters’ intention, is on the order of plus or minus 1.7. In other words, the likely number has a 95% chance of being between 3.3% and 6.7%.
Of course, we do need to factor in the percentage of Winston’s voters who were not available to answer, being abducted by aliens at the time and not due back until November 7.
September 19th, 2008 at 2:21 pm
Just had Peters on campus at Otago. He launched with an immediate attack on MSM (‘you’d think I’d have red horns, and a tail…’) then said NZ First has ALWAYS tried to get you an universal student loan, then tried to guilt us about our grandparents. Then the Q&A bought out the interesting people, including the girl who tried to ask him about Own Glen 3 times, and when he shut her down she screamed “You haven’t answered my question Mr Peters!”. You and the rest of the country darling.
Was an interesting hour.
September 19th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
Manolo (289) Vote: Add rating3 Subtract rating 1 Says:
September 19th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Whoar said: “.peters will be back..dpf..”
“Isn’t it a delicious irony to see a Luddite, a true loser (albeit a good cook), rooting for the venal and corrupt Peters….”
I LIKE IT. Who gave Manolo a thumbs down for that?
Manolo is a cooking expert, he was obviously impressed with the recipe philu gave us a few days ago. What a tragic waste of a life philu is……….
September 19th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
“Who gave Manolo a thumbs down for that?”
I’ll give you one guess..!!
September 19th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
I reckon this discrepancy could be explained by different wording. Anyone know the exact questions asked??
September 19th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
“I reckon this discrepancy could be explained by different wording. Anyone know the exact questions asked??”
[Poller in a Quiet Voice] Would you like one sugar or two dear ?
[Hard of Hearing OAP] aye ?
[Poller] OK, option A – that’s NZF
September 19th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
The most interesting aspect is the almost perfect inversion of results between Morgan and an ‘eyeball average’ of the others. Wish I had the raw data as I’d see how close it actually is, but the eyeball says when one goes up the other goes down!
September 19th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
I don’t get polls, how can you have 4 or 5 polls with a margin of error of say plus or minus 1 to 3% on each pole but some polls are higher or lower then 3% then some of the others. Dosen’t this really mean the polls are full of horseshit as the margin of error really is in error.