Focus on three Auckland Seats

October 20th, 2008 at 9:40 am by David Farrar

The looks at , and .

Auckland Central:

That is not troubling the motivated Kaye, who is running a vigorous and old-fashioned door-knocking campaign. National Party sources say that although raised in conservative Epsom and Kohimarama, she is more socially liberal and environmentally active than most in the party.

On the other hand, Tizard has more than 40 years of family political history and nous to draw on. Name recognition, strong links with the gay and other communities and being a junior minister in transport and the arts help. Then again, she has received criticism for her now-defunct role of Minister for Auckland Issues.


Worth, who became a list MP, is standing again, but says he is firmly concentrating on increasing National’s party vote of 58.5 per cent in 2005 to 70 per cent.

“How people decide to cast their constituency vote is an issue for them.”

With Act polling well below the 5 per cent threshold to gain list seats in Parliament, National needs Hide to win Epsom and hopefully provide two or more Act MPs for a National-led coalition.


Labour is replacing one unionist (Mr Gosche is a former national secretary of the Service and Food Workers Union) with another, , secretary of the Council of Trade Unions. …

Samoan-born Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga is the National candidate. Not only is he among a new bunch of young, highly educated 28-to-45-year-olds offering new blood and values for National, but he is also part of an attempt to boost the party’s ethnic diversity.

9 Responses to “Focus on three Auckland Seats”

  1. Mike S (189 comments) says:

    A surpsingly large number of people in Akld Central that I know are saying they’re not voting for Tizard this time, myself included. You just never see her, and she never seems able to do a thing for the area. I think Kaye is in with a chance here.

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  2. Chris2 (915 comments) says:

    I am in Tizard’s electorate but I will not be voting for her again – she is an invisible MP and Cabinet Minister who got in via family connections. Someone suggested to me that she is “in the closet” (along with Lockwood Smith) – is this true?

    [DPF: Speculating on sexuality of MPs will attract demerits]

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  3. goodgod (1,347 comments) says:

    If government’s true purpose is to ensure a stable economic environment, then making a big deal about how gay friendly a candidate is isn’t a bonus. Which fraction of the population is due to be flavour of the month next? A select group of immigrant Somali villagers, all left handed, with green eyes? Jaysus, you’d think Auckland central contained about 500,000 gays.




    everyone eats sleeps shits and wears clothes (mostly)

    stick to core business, not social engineering. The very act of pandering to one group over another encourages an ongoing climate of prejudice and divisions. All kinds of activists haven’t figured that out yet. You’re either human or you’re not, and if you’re human you’re as equal as the next man is ever likely to be. Social liberals are a bit slow in this respect.

    But good on Nikki Kaye for doing the foot work. I’m always impressed with modern politicians that go face to face with the public. It reveals an element of fortitude that is rare enough to be special. If she wasn’t so “socially liberal” I’d vote for her.

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  4. davidp (3,865 comments) says:

    I’m shocked to discover, via Wikipedia, that Tizard is only 52. I’d thought she was much older, and couldn’t figure out why she hadn’t retired a couple of elections ago.

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  5. GTP (61 comments) says:

    Lived in AK central electorate for 12 years now, never seen Tizard except in her classic pose for the camera in the Ponsonby News at some event opening or another.

    Last week Nikki Kaye was walking our street door knocking, refreshing change.

    I’d like to think she’ll get over the line but fear there might be too many state houses and left leaning liberals in the elctorate although it has changed significantlly over the last decade.

    I’d love to see what polling is showing AK central.

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  6. Tim Ellis (253 comments) says:

    I think Tizard is going to cop a flogging. I’ve only seen her once in the electorate in the last three years, and that was at a transport forum about a month ago. I haven’t seen her out once in the streets. Kaye seems to be outdoing Tizard on every count: media penetration, campaign visibility, hoardings.

    Three thousand votes isn’t a big hurdle to overcome. Tizard isn’t well liked or well known in the electorate and just doesn’t seem to do anything.

    GTP a few of the blogs have been reporting alleged internal party polling from both Labour and National in the last few months. Every one of them has Kaye just ahead of Tizard. I would think that as long as National’s nationwide vote holds up, and Kaye keeps up her workrate she will sneak through.

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  7. Gravyman62 (37 comments) says:

    Yes, Useless Lizard must go.She is a completely absent MP, and an embarrasment to the electorate. The most visible she ever is, is on a billboard every 3 years. Getting rid of her would send a very potent message. I would like to see a big effort put in behind Nikki Kaye to achieve this

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  8. WOLTA (1 comment) says:

    First time caller, longtime listener…
    As a resident of Onehunga it looks very much like Labour are taking Maungakiekie as ‘a given’. I think I’ve seen 2 labour hoardings and received nothing in the mail, no knocks at the door… National on the other hand are everywhere. Hoarding on every corner, and their supporters were ‘every where’ on the weekend.

    Labour won it by 6,450 last time and that translates to about 4,000 with the boundary changes. But the face of Maungakiekie and particularly Onehunga has changed a lot in that time – as it has become a very popular/affordable place for first home buyers (myself included) to shift to.

    And these first home buyers are generally childless couples, struggling after missing out on the helping hand working for families gave and an age without tax cuts. As of a few months ago, every second house on Onehunga Mall was for sale. Would be interested to see how the electorate is polling…

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  9. John Boscawen (133 comments) says:

    It is a pity the Herald did not quote the latest ACT polling results from Epsom as they did in yesterday’s Herald on Sunday.

    The NBR first covered this on Friday. A poll of 600 Epsom residents conducted last Sunday and Monday showed Rodney Hide leading his National Party opponent Richard Worth by 56% to 27%. The Labour candidate Sutton was on 10% and Keith Locke on 4%. This poll bears out the incredible support Rodney has in Epsom as illustrated in the feature article in last week’s Sunday Star Times on Rodney.

    While Rodney’s team is far from complacent if these poll results are replicated on polling day Rodney can expect to win by several thousand.

    This of course means that every Party Vote for ACT will count. ACT will not need to gain over 5% of the party vote to get MPs in Parliament.

    For those wanting a change of government – there are only two choices. People can either give their Party Vote to ACT or National. Those are the only two guaranteed options. (While United and the Maori Party may go with National, there is no guarantee).

    Speaking of polls, I am amazed by the media’s fascination of the fact that the gap between National and Labour has reputedly closed by 3%. The gap between the two is irrelevant. What is far more important is the gap between the combined party vote for Labour and the Greens versus National and ACT.

    All that happened on the latest Colmar Brunton poll was for the Greens support to drop by 3% and for Labour’s to increase by 3%. The combined total stayed the same.

    By the same token National has dropped by 1 and ACT increased by half.

    Thankfully the combined total for ACT and National has stayed above 50% in the latest Colmar Brunton poll.

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