The Canadian Election Results
Stephen Harper has won re-election for Canada’s Conservative Party, picking up some seats but still falling short of the 155 seats needed to be a majority Government.
The Conservatives were almost wiped out in 1993, being reduced to two seats, so to win two elections in a row shows how far they have come.
The seats are:
- Conservatives 143 (+19)
- Liberals 76 (-27)
- Bloc Québécois 50 (-1)
- NDP 37 (+8)
- Independents (+1)
The Greens lost the one seat they had picked up at a by-election and got 7% nationally. On the popular vote the Conservatives only went up 1.4% from 2006,l but the Liberals dropped 4.0%. The election was partly called to capitalise on the weak Liberal leadership. Their result of 26% is the lowest for them in the history of Canada and Stéphane Dion is likely to be rolled. I would watch Gerard Kennedy as the possible new leader.
Interestingly, compared to NZ, Dion lobbied for the Greens leader to be included in the Leader’s Debate in Canada, and her (Elizabeth May’s) performance in the debate is cited as bleeding support from the Liberals. Clark and Key may look at that with satisfaction.
Canada does have a rural/urban split. And a provincial split. In Alberta the Conservatives won all 27 seats I think. But they did not win a single seat in Toronto or Montreal and only one seat in Vancouver. Their lack of appeal in the three big cities is what stopped them getting a majority.
Pleased to see my friend Patrick Brown in Barrie increase his majority from 1,523 in 2006 to a massive 15,195. He is one of the hardest working politicians I have come across. During the 2006 campaign, in the middle of winter, he would be the most enthused about getting out door knocking every day, and keeping going until it was dark. And this was trudging through snow with the temperature 30 degrees below zero.
October 16th, 2008 at 11:17 am
David, the Progressive Conservatives were decimated in 1993, not the Conservatives. The PCs basically abandoned both halves of their coalition, western conservatives and Quebec nationalists, who then went on to become the Reform Party and the Bloc Quebecois, respectively. The Reformers merged back with the Progressive Conservatives to become the Conservatives; the Bloc remains a strong Quebec force. The Conservatives this time have basically gotten back all of their former Western base (the part of the map painted Reform Green in 1993 is now Conservative blue), a decent chunk of Southern Ontario, and some of the Atlantic. It’s going to be damned hard for them to ever get a majority again while the Bloc is around.
The NDP took Edmonton Strathcona in Alberta, so one district wasn’t won by the Tories. That one’s a bit of a surprise, it having been held by Rahim Jaffer for a long time (who came in with the early waves of the Reform Party).
October 16th, 2008 at 11:19 am
The estimable James Allan at “The Australian” said THIS a few days ago:
“……To be blunt, Canada is way to the left of Australia (and the US and Britain).
To give you a rough idea, you could take the Rudd Government, plonk it down in Canada, and it would be to the right of Stephen Harper’s Tory Government on many issues. (For what it’s worth you could take Australian High Court Justice Michael Kirby and plonk him down on the Supreme Court of Canada and he would be the most interpretively conservative judge there. Seriously. And I mean that as telling you something unkind about Canada, not the other way around.)
Stephane Dion, the Liberal Party leader, along with much of the Canadian media, likes to portray Harper as a committed (even fanatical) right-winger with an extreme right-wing agenda. Of course it’s near on impossible to think of a single issue on which Harper is to the right of Bill Clinton. Not George Bush. Clinton signed the Defence of Marriage Act; he overhauled welfare provision in a way Harper, or for that matter John Howard, never would have; he unilaterally bombed places; he favoured, indeed implemented, capital punishment; he rejected a public-only health system, preferring lots of private provision in a way Harper never could.
My point isn’t that the Clinton-admiring Canadian media is hypocritical, though it certainly is that. My point is that what passes for a raving right-winger in Canada is something that amounts to a lukewarm Scandinavian-style social democrat just about everywhere else. Canada is big time left-wing.
In fact one of the reasons Harper couldn’t win a majority last time is that he and the Tories were shut out in the three biggest cities: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. To say that the metropolitan elites don’t vote Tory in Canada is a bit like saying feminists don’t like Sarah Palin. You can’t quite think of the words needed to convey the degree to which it istrue.
So one reason the election is of interest in Australia has to do with whether Harper will be able to win a majority and then try to shift what passes for the political centre in Canada slightly to the right. To do this, he’s going to have to overcome a campaign by the other parties that portrays him as a right-wing, American-style ideologue with a hidden agenda chock full of the usual bete noires of big oil, guns, abortion restrictions and so forth.
A second reason the Canadian contest will be of interest is that a main theme of the election will be whether voters want to risk economic wellbeing by opting for the proposed carbon tax of the main opposition party, the Liberals. I happen to think a carbon tax is a better option than any sort of emissions trading scheme. But leave that aside. I am sure Kevin Rudd will be watching with interest to see if voters in Canada are prepared to put their money where their mouth is, especially when one party is explicitly pointing out the potential costs……”
If you changed a few names, he could be talking about NZ, EXCEPT that John Key is to the Left of even Stephen Harper on “Climate Change” cost impositions………
October 16th, 2008 at 11:42 am
The Greens got 7%, but zero seats. Nice system.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Liberals, NDP, and Greens got 53% of the vote between them, but the Conservatives end up in power. Guess that’s why the right wants to go back to FPP here.
October 16th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
..hmm yes…left of Australia but still well right of NZ… but hopefully not for long (sigh)
October 16th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
I was going to post about Reform Party post 1993 but Crampton did it first.
The one thing is that Bloc Quebecois was Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition after 1993 election. Quite ironic as they wanted to split the country!
Canadian politics is funny, like when the leader of the Federal Progressive Conservatives (Jean Charest) leaves his party to lead the Quebec Liberal Party (bit like leaving federal National party to join Victorian Labour party in Aus).
October 16th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Congrats to the Conservatives, Stephen Harper, Patrick Brown and the citizens of Canada. While I would have enjoyed a Conservative majority it is not so bad to see that the Conservatives have a muscular minority.
October 16th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
DPF: The Greens never fought a by-election for the seat they had, It was a Liberal MP who got tossed out of caucus, he joined the Greens at the end of August 2008, thus they had an MP for just over 2 months until the voters tossed him out.
October 16th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Stephen Harper, the PM, used to be a Reform member. Reform’s policies are very similar’s to ACT’s. Good to see him with an increased minority.
October 16th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
I have a business interest in Alberta that takes me there periodically. Following this election has been interesting. Harper weathered the stock market whirlwind and the left leaning Canadian media quite well under the circumstances aided by a wooden and offputting Dion who is your picture child liberal academic. The Libs long standing corruption scandals and their carbon tax proposal has helped hasten their demise. Most see the 2nd Harper Administration as business as usual albeit with a stronger minority position. The left is hopelessly divided (as the right once was) between Liberals, Greens and NDP.
I cant think of a Federal style country with such radically different provincial cultures and electoral needs. Alberta (and BC) generate a disproportionate amount of Canada’s wealth and Quebec and Ontario find good old fashion socialist ways to spend it. Bloc Quebecois hold the country hostage with threats of cessation causing all party leaders to fall all over themselves to bribe Quebec to keep Canada united. To watch an English speaking Prime Minister from a Calgary riding address the nation alternating from French to English when (absent Quebec) almost Canadians are native English speakers is frankly ludicrous.
I enjoyed Harper’s speech – rare to see a Canadian leader invoke almost American style pride and faith in his country. Harper has managed to govern well in the minority – a stronger and larger caucus and a demoralised Liberal Party will make his task in this next parliament even easier.