Armstrong calls it for National
John Armstrong writes:
It feels like it is all over, red rover.
The shouting won’t stop completely until campaigning has to come to a halt tomorrow evening. But rarely has the final week of an election campaign been so flat and devoid of any sense of a fight. Rarely has it seemed as if everyone is now merely going through the motions until Saturday finally rolls around. …
The feeling of fait accompli was apparent before today’s Herald-DigiPoll survey, which has a clear majority of voters rating a National-led Government as better equipped than Labour to handle the economy, with even more voters thinking National is going the win the election. …
However, the widespread feeling among those observing this election with no axe to grind is that over the last week the election has slipped away from Labour. The pervading question is no longer whether Labour has any chance of winning. It is now the margin by which National will win.
Time will tell. But my feeling is since the H-Fee smear backfired Labour has had no forward momentum. And it is possible even the secret tapings are backfiring on them – there seems to be a revulsion about the tactics – not from partisans like me but everyday people.
November 6th, 2008 at 10:45 am
“But rarely has the final week of an election campaign been so flat and devoid of any sense of a fight.”
John is lamenting the lack of excitement. That’s because the blogosphere, with its ability to expose the truth, has blunted the usual Labour/ mainstream media attacks on National Mr. Armstrong. Better luck next time. (You’ll need a new strategy.)
November 6th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I am really surprised by the lack of online presence from any of the parties on the right.
Labour and the Greens have saturated coverage online.
Not a smart move by Act, United Future or National
Need to get this sorted next time
November 6th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Since when is United Future a “party of the right”? They have propped up Helengrad for six years. Only a party vote for National, or (even better) ACT will ensure a change of Government. Give Hide the numbers to keep that prick Dunne the hell out of Government.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Didn’t seem to do them much good democracymum.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Spot on
November 6th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Since when is United Future a “party of the right”?
Yeah, damn right, missed that. D-mum. United Future led by an ex-Labour shill and charlatan, have propped up a gang or anti family Marxist crooks for ten years (at the same time as UF have professed to be pro-family) and now want to cuddle up to National. Fuck em. I wish John Key had the gonads to tell these duplicitous unprincipled money grubbing bastards where to put their support. All they’re after is their funding from the taxpayer. Cynical useless creeps.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:18 am
I assume their will be four or five polls (Maybe not Roy Morgan) tomorrow
November 6th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I’m still of the opinion that this will be a landslide win for National. The feeling is for change and like America it’s coming.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Those patronising “I don’t trust you Mr Key” ads probably pushed a few swinging voters into Nationals camp I imagine. Has Labour had anything else to say other than don’t trust Key? And to my way of thinking all this has done is focus voters thinking on whether Clark is more trustworthy, which frankly, she is not. However, I’m not dancing on the witches grave just yet. There is still every chance that National won’t be able to stitch a coalition together. I hope I am wrong because it will be disastrous for the country.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:24 am
I also take umbrage at the comment UnitedFuture is a party of the right. This so-called “party” only looks after the interests of the mereticious Peter Dunne, who will sell his body to anyone just to continue being a minister of the Crown.
How such completely devoid of ideas, vapid, and unspiring politician has managed to get elected and re-elected for so many years is an indictement on the Kiwi voters.
Will the situation change this time around? I doubt it: Dunne, the prostitute is destined to survive, again.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:25 am
The problem for Labour is the same as it was for McCain, you can’t gain traction when the MSM have already written you off. And to make Labour’s case worse, you will never get a positive headline while your President, members and supporters are engaged in activities that the public despise.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:27 am
The Herald dodgey-poll was out by 5.2% in 2005 (National and Labour combined) – so I wouldn’t take too much from this. The TV3 TNS poll was by far the most accurate in 2005, and their last poll had the Maori Party as king makers. I wait for the next TV3 poll.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Maybe it is too hard even for Labour parasites to bear being in the same room as the anti-human Greens.
A third way parasite still needs to feed and shouldn’t really kill the host unlike the Greens whose attitude is to kill or ban whatever opinion or living standard they deem unacceptable.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Sir Robert Jones said it best when he likened Peter Dunne to the town bike. Mind you, Dunne sold out his principles (whatever they were) for that stupid Families Commision. I think Key should get him for much less.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Bev:
Many in the msm were writing off labour before the last election as well – and we all know what happened then…
November 6th, 2008 at 11:55 am
I have a slightly different perspective on Peter Dunne because he used to be my MP
(long ago before MMP)
and he really was an excellent electorate MP.
Although like Robert Jones, I do see him as a bit of a flip flopper
but I guess he would say he is just working within the MMP system
I am also very keen on his income splitting policy.
Many mothers I know have to go out to work part time when they have young children, which puts a lot
of stress on the whole family.
I agree the families commission was a nonsense, but this policy would make a real difference to
a lot of middle class families, who want a parent to look after the children as opposed to putting
the children in day care.
November 6th, 2008 at 11:57 am
I agree the families commission was a nonsense, but this policy would make a real difference to
a lot of middle class families, who want a parent to look after the children as opposed to putting
the children in day care.
Which can also mean a drop in crime 15, 20 years down the track. The more time kids spend with their parents, the better.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
“The more time kids spend with their parents, the better.”
So you were an orphan right?
November 6th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
… that’s because the recordings are hyperbole, beaten-up, rubbish. They are news worthy, but certainly not to the extend they were used. And I think most NZers recognise that.
And the piece on Kees in the Herald won’t be doing Labour any favours.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
So you were an orphan right?
Haha, man, how shit would you feel if I turned out to be?
(no, not an orphan. my parents were, and are, great.)
November 6th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
democracymum, I agree with you. Peter dunne ain’t so bad a person and i think he has some genuine points and concerns, which he wants to work in govt for. Sometimes the execution of his ideas goes a bit awry tho’. And yes, children do need a parent home with them to look after them and support them. Usually, the first thing they call out on coming through the front door after school is Mum or Dad, depending on who the ‘home’ parent is. So income splitting makes sense, to help financially. i know quite a few who have voted UF for that alone.
Research has indeed shown that children with strong role models of parents, including one who is at home most the time they are, do not so readily enter a life of crime. It’s a hard road trying to instil good work ethics and being the sole parent, but hell – it is so worth it!
November 6th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
“The TV3 TNS poll was by far the most accurate in 2005″
Not exactly. The very last one before election day was right, but as has been pointed out by pollsters, that may have been just a fluke.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
roger nome,
Yes, the last TV3 poll was remarkably accurate in 2005, but that was partly a fluke. The statistical maths says that no matter how perfect your methodology your spread will be off by a couple of percent more often than not. TV3 was spot on then but probably wont be again.
Note also that the margin of error applies to BOTH parties so a 3% margin means your spread could be off by 6%. The Herald poll might have been the best, but got it wrong only because of the chance factor that margin represents. The same applies to other polls.
Furthermore, polls are trying to capture a moving target. None of tonight’s/tomorrow’s polls will catch the Obama effect (if any).
For these reasons, I am still inclined to go with the average of the polls rather than trust TV3 too much.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
DUNNE gave us the new overseas investments tax with it’s complexities and variety of methods of assessments which leaves even honest taxpayers in continueing doubt as to whether they have done it right. The ironic thing is that with the economic meltdown there will be very little tax liability on overseas investors this tax year. That legacy will adversely affect the incoming National goverment.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
But the plan must not just be the beat the LEFT It must be to render the LEFT unelectable for the next 2 plus decades.
Our children and grandchildren must never have to live thru the past 9 years as we have had to being ruled by a smoke and mirrors fake Prime Minister who cant even admit to herself what she really is and has no morals ethics or principles.
And supported by a feral venal corrupt pack of dog turds on the soles of my shoes.
THEY MUST GO AND THEY MUST GO NOW
November 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
“The ironic thing is that with the economic meltdown there will be very little tax liability on overseas investors this tax year.”
Under the FDR scheme for foreign investment, there is still a tax liability. You get charged tax at your marginal tax rate on 5% of the beginning of the year value of your investments.
The idea that was put forward at the time this was brought in was that 5% would be what your international investment would be yielding in income.
Thats complete BS though, because average yields for the last decade have been around about 2-3%. This was pointed out at the time but ignored.
You may not be earning income on your investments, but the further assumption was that you could sell units of your investment to cover the tax liability.
Now if the price is dropping and you have to sell units, then you will be forced to sell in a falling market, which is not something you want to do.
Of course, if the price drops your running yield increases, but that only matter for next year, and only if dividends remain constant.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
The scheme makes the income stream for the government more certain, at the expense of making peoples ability to pay their tax liability uncertain and further dissuading people from diversifying their investments.
November 6th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
“(no, not an orphan. my parents were, and are, great.)”
But obviously not married.
November 6th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Looks like they’ve given up.
LEAKED by the Bee Hive Plant of VRWC
Text of Clark’s concession speech
By The Indoctrinated Press – in 58 hours time
Text of Labour’s Helen Clark’s concession speech Saturday in Auckland, as transcribed by CS Transcriptions.
___
CLARK: Thank you. Thank you, my friends. Thank you for coming here on this beautiful Auckland evening.
My friends, we have — we have come to the end of a long journey. The NZ people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly.
A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Prime Minister Elect John Key to congratulate him.
(BOOING)
Please.
To congratulate him on being elected the next PM of the country that we both love.
In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of NZers who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an NZ PM is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving.
This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for Pakeha-New Zealanders and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight.
I’ve always believed that NZ offers opportunities to all who have the industry and will to seize it. John Key believes that, too.
But we both recognize that, though we have come a long way from the old injustices that once stained our nation’s reputation that we still deny some NZers the opportunity to be on 2 different Electoral Roles because of the color of their skin, and the fact of this still has the power to wound.
NZ today is a world away from the cruel and frightful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the election of a Pakeha NZer to the premiership of NZ.
Let there be no reason now … Let there be no reason now for any NZer to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.
John Key has achieved a great thing for himself and for his country. I applaud him for it, and offer him my sincere sympathy that his beloved mother did not live to see this day. Though our faith assures us she is at rest in the presence of her creator and so very proud of the good man she raised alone.
John Key and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain.
These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to take up a job in the UN as soon as is practically possible so he can lead you through the many challenges we face.
I urge all NZers who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next PM our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together to find the necessary compromises to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.
Whatever our differences, we are fellow NZers. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that.
It is natural. It’s natural, tonight, to feel some disappointment. But tomorrow, we must move beyond it and work together to get our country moving again.
We fought — we fought as hard as we could. And though we feel short, the failure is mine, not yours.
AUDIENCE: No!
CLARK: I am so…
AUDIENCE: (CHANTING)
CLARK: I am so deeply grateful to all of you for the great honor of your support and for all you have done for me. I wish the outcome had been different, my friends.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: We do, too (OFF-MIKE)
CLARK: The road was a difficult one from the outset, but your support and friendship never wavered. I cannot adequately express how deeply indebted I am to you.
I’m especially grateful to my husband Peter, my friend Judith, my dear mother … my dear mother and all my family, and to the many old and dear friends who have stood by my side through the many ups and downs of this long campaign.
I have always been a fortunate woman, and never more so for the love and encouragement you have given me.
You know, campaigns are often harder on a candidate’s consort than on the candidate, and that’s been true in this campaign.
All I can offer in compensation is my love and gratitude and the promise of more peaceful years ahead.
I am also — I am also, of course, very thankful to Party President Mike Williams, one of the best campaigners I’ve ever seen … one of the best campaigners I have ever seen, and an impressive old voice in our party for unprincipled corruption that has always been our greatest strength … and the way he has boosted KFC sales in Mangere and the courage and disgrace he showed in the rough and tumble of a presidential campaign.
We can all look forward with great interest to his future incarceration in one HM Penal Institutions.
To all my campaign comrades, from Nicky Hagar, Kees Keizer,to Batman , to every last volunteer who fought so hard and valiantly, month after month, in what at times seemed to be the most challenged campaign in modern times, thank you so much. A lost election will never mean more to me than the privilege of your faith and friendship.
I don’t know — I don’t know what more we could have done to try to win this election. I’ll leave that to others to determine. Every candidate makes mistakes, and I’m sure I made my share of them. But I won’t spend a moment of the future regretting what might have been.
This campaign was and will remain the great honor of my life, and my heart is filled with nothing but gratitude for the experience and to the NZ people for giving me a fair hearing before deciding that John Key and my old friend Bill English should have the honor of leading us for the next three years.
(BOOING)
Please. Please.
I would not — I would not be an NZer worthy of the name should I regret a fate that has allowed me the extraordinary privilege of wrecking this country for the last nine years.
Today, I was a candidate for the highest office in the country I love so much. And tonight, I remain her servant and I look forward to confidence that John with John’s help I’ll be able to serve the needs of this country in far off lands as a servant of a great International institution That is blessing enough for anyone, and I thank the people of NZ for it.
AUDIENCE: NOO ZEELAND, NOO ZEELAND, NOO ZEELAND.
CLARK: Tonight — tonight, more than any night, I hold in my heart nothing but love for this country and for all its citizens, whether they supported me or John Key — whether they supported me or John Key.
I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my Prime Minister. And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties, but to believe, always, in the promise and greatness of New Zealand, because nothing is inevitable here.
NZers never quit. We never surrender.
We never hide from history. We make history.
Thank you, and God bless you, and God bless New Zealand. Thank you all very much.
November 6th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Colin
Her “Christian principles”clearly shine through in this powerful piece of oratory
November 6th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
>>The Herald dodgey-poll was out by 5.2% in 2005 (National and Labour combined) – so I wouldn’t take too much from this. The TV3 TNS poll was by far the most accurate in 2005, and their last poll had the Maori Party as king makers. I wait for the next TV3 poll.
Why is you leftards only talk about the polls in 2005?
One election does not make a trend
In 1999 and 2002 Colmar Brunton was the most accurate
November 6th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Its all over for me – two ticks ACT at an overseas post the first day it opened.