Electorate Polls

November 2nd, 2008 at 6:30 pm by David Farrar

I’ve blogged over on curiablog the results fo several recent electorate , including tonight’s one in Tauranga. The topline results are:

  • Tauranga – Bridges 26% ahead of Peters. ’s Pankhurst in 4th place at 5%. NZ First Party Vote down from 13% in 2005 to 6%.
  • Palmerston North – National candidate Malcolm Plimmer ahead by 3%
  • – Parekura Horomia 5.4% ahead of
  • Nelson – 36% ahead of
  • – Damien O’Connor 3.5% ahead of Chris Auchinvole
  • – Maori TV/TNS has Mahara Okeroa ahead of by 10% – 49% to 39%. However Marae Digipoll has Okeroa bejind by 6% – 40% to 46%
  • Hauraki-Waikato – ahead of Angeline Greensill by 0.6%

All three Maori seats held by Labour are highly competitive. In two seats Labour is ahead and in the seat with conflcitign results, an averaging of them out would see Labour ahead. This means that the may not have much of an overhang at all – in fact they could even gain a List MP if they got 4% or so party vote.

Palmerston North is the only Labour held seat that a public poll has shown National ahead in, so far. Due to boundary changes Taupo and Rotorua are technically National’s on paper.

Based on boundary changes and public polls (and note this is not a personal prediction) the electorate seats would be:

  1. National 35
  2. Labour 28
  3. Maori 4
  4. ACT 1
  5. United Future 1
  6. Progressive 1

Labour will in one sense be very pleased to be ahead in all three Maori seats. However this does lessen their chances of winning via overhang.

And the Tauranga result is superb. With only 5% voting Labour on the electorate vote anyway, it means no amount of tactical voting in Tauranga can put Winston back in that way.

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10 Responses to “Electorate Polls”

  1. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    Do we have any idea what the party votes expected to overlay onto the electorate seats?

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  2. peterquixote (231 comments) says:

    Extremely interesting Farrar,
    almost as though there is a Maori swing back to Helengrand labour.
    Very sad for MAORI,
    but very good for NAT,
    NAT Government NEW ZEALAND 2008
    John Key Prime Minister NZ,
    recovery and wealth for New Zealand,

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  3. Johnboy (13,424 comments) says:

    Are there enough people suffering from Alzheimers being let out of their respective institutions to give the Jim First party a mandate this time around?

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  4. godruelf (52 comments) says:

    Anything from Rimutuka??? Any chance of Ron Mark slipping Winston through the side door?

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  5. Don the Kiwi (1,338 comments) says:

    Confirms the *feeling* I’ve had in Tauranga, going to Simon Bridges.
    But no time for complacency, still a week to go. Focus on getting Simon home.

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  6. homepaddock (429 comments) says:

    TV! poll tonight had NZ First on 6% compared with 13% in ’05. That was their highest support and if they’ve dropped that much in Tauranga they’ve almost certainly dropped everywhere else.

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  7. bluewattle (4 comments) says:

    This guy has used the same polls as DPF at Curia used for the electorate vote
    and got this for the National Party vote
    Should we be worried?

    outofbed
    November 2, 2008 at 8:47 pm

    Nationals polling numbers in the last 3 local polls

    Palm Nrth Latest poll 36.0% 2005 election 36.69
    Nelson Latest poll 40.4% 2005 election 37.01
    West Cst Latest poll 44.7% 2005 election 39.59
    AVG 40,36 AVG 37,63

    Doesn’t look to me as a major shift to National

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  8. Ross Miller (1,624 comments) says:

    The Tauranga poll result certainly puts paid to the chance that Labour will encourage their (few) supporters there to vote tactically.

    I keep seeing the Mark for Rimutaka scenario pop up. Give me a break. So Labour knee caps their front runner on the chance that Rambo Mark gets in? More likely result …. National takes the seat in a split vote and Labour looses one of their few electorate seats likely to survive the Saturday night massacre.

    I more plausable scenario is the chance that as we speak the Labour apparachiks are cobbling together a survival plan designed to minimise their electorate seat losses aso as to provde a base from which they can build a shattered party.

    Yes, electorate and list MPs are supposed to be equal but you know and I know they aren’t and the extra resources attaching to electorate MPs by way of staff numbers and dosh are prizes worth fighting for.

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  9. Glutaemus Maximus (2,207 comments) says:

    Looks like the Court of Public Opinion is still debating on its conclusion to provide a verdict.

    There is still time for that result to drop lower as WP continues to Jabber and Lie relentlessly.

    On Agenda this morning we had a series of Statments from Luigi, which would have been terminal for anybody not being protected by the Prime Mentalist.

    The Helicopter Story really nneds to be posted on here as it is a classic!

    Total humbug, and overt lying. Luigi was caught out and he never blinked.

    He really thinks that he is invincible.

    The introduction and formation of a Corruption Enquiry needs to be brought up at the final face off on Wednesday, and aimed at NZFirst, and Peters in particular.

    Klerkestein. She of the Rocky Horror Picture Show will have a hissy fit!

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  10. Pascal (2,015 comments) says:

    Has there been any word on Mt Albert /Owairaka? Thus far the only candidate I’ve even received mail from is Helen Clark. It’s like ACT and National are non-entities. Why?

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