Investing on Specials
I am doing well to date on iPredict. Of 11 stocks, I have made money on 10 on them, totalling a net gain of just over $1,000. I lost money on Benson.Pope contesting the election, but have made money on:
- Goff to be Leader
- Cunliffe not to be Leader
- Maori Party to have an agreement with National (not yet closed)
- Peters not to be an MP
- Bridges to win Tauranga
- John Key to be PM
- Peters not to resign or be sacked
- Obama to be President
- Short selling President not to be Obama or McCain
- The third quarter inflation rate
Yesterday I blogged the Specials:
For Labour to gain a seat off National
If National gets 0.16% less on the specials and Labour 0.16% more on the specials, then Labour get the 120th seat. So if National gets 45.29% on the specials instead of 45.45% and Labour gets 33.93% instead of 33.77%, Labour gain a seat off National.
For Greens to gain a seat off National
If National gets 1.62% less on specials, and Greens 1.62% more, then Greens would get the 120th seat off National. Another scenario is Greens get 1.55% more and National and Labour lose 0.78% each.
For both Labour and Greens to gain a seat, and National lose two seats
If Labour does 2.51% better on specials and Greens 2.10% better, than they will take spots 119 and 120 and knock two seats off National. This would mean National gets only 40.8% of specials, Labour gets 36.3% and Greens get 8.5% for this to happen.
Ipredict has the following stock prices:
- National to lose no seats – $0.77c
- National to lose one seat – $0.24c
- National to lose two seats – 0.02c
I have just purcahsed some National to lose one seat stock at a bit over 20c. It is by no means certain National will lose a seat, but with Labour needing to lift its vote for specials by just 0.16%, then I’d put the probability at well above 20c.