Roughan gets it
John Roughan in the Herald:
A week ago, when the votes were in and National didn’t need the Maori Party, a deal didn’t seem to me to be worth doing. How wrong I was.
If this deal can be done it will be the better because neither side needs to do it.
Exactly. It is more durable and genuine when it is unforced.
The Maori’s choice this week was National or nothing, which are both serious options. If National is offering next to nothing Maori might do better to wait. What’s another three years after 168? I bet that was said at all the hui held these past few days.
And I’ll bet something else: if National’s offer is accepted , the reasons that persuaded the hui will have little to do with the positions and portfolios agreed with John Key. The decisive reason will be the Maori leaders’ reading of National’s new attitude.
And more specifically John Key’s attitude. He has spent a long time building up a constructive relationship with the Maori Party, supported by his MPs.
It will have to be a radically new attitude for the National Party.
Roughan may be surprised by how keen rank and file activists are for a deal also.
My guess is they will have made it very clear they are not content with a relationship in which they are given a couple of self-contained responsibilities in Maori Affairs and Social Welfare and left alone with them.
They are more likely to want an assurance of being treated as an equal partner in all major decisions the Government will make.
That does not mean a right of veto but it does mean they are brought into the discussion, their viewpoints are taken seriously, disagreements respected, and each side makes genuine and strenuous efforts to reach decisions that satisfy both.
I guess the combined Maori Caucus of 11 MPs could play a role also.
No agreed formula of words is sufficient to make that sort of arrangement secure. Its success will depend completely on the heart of the more powerful partner. Key and his Cabinet will have to genuinely want this partnership and even be excited by it.
They should be excited. They have on their table a historical opportunity such as no incoming government has been given. They could be the authors of a constitutional precedent that will do more for the social wellbeing and national identity of New Zealand than they can yet imagine.
Okay, now John’s getting a bit too excited. 
But indeed it is a future with some promise.
November 15th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
and the fascinating side-bar to all of this is watching Labour wallowing in the wake; reduced to patronising mouthings which will have the precise opposite effect to what they intended. Labours ties to Maoridom are loosening by the day
Goff is going to do it hard over the next few months and watch this space as the debacle over a massive defence contract gone wrong is exposed.
Cunliffe will be pleased.
November 15th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
But at least Labour was a party of equality – that is they treated everyone who wasn’t Labour, with equal contempt. So now we suddenly awake to the fact that a government can act like a democratic institution, and not something akin to the Borgias, and we are suprized because…?
Can that be because the Labour Government had become so arrogant and detached that we’d almost started to forget what consensus and cooperation looked like?
Even now, they start their opposition they remain untainted by the new reality. We were reading about Cullen pissing in the drinking water two days ago, by releasing confidential information, and Goff lecturing Maori only yesterday. Even Trotter’s recetn volte-face seemed more driven by his love of the salary cheque than any actual epiphany.
They just don’t get it, do they?
November 15th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
This would be a do nothing agreement. With confidence and supply guaranteed by the Maori Party, National could govern without Act. This weakens Acts ability to force to changes to National’s policy, in particular economic policy. For those who hoped that National would move down the road of economic reform this is bad news. Act has lost much of its power to push National down that road. Key has the votes he needs to stay in in the centre, to occupy Labour’s territory and not move at all. “Labour Lite” could be here to stay and we could see the worst government since Muldoon.
November 15th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
oh look..!..the penny has finally dropped for paul walker..!
..has anyone else ‘got it’..yet..?
..key has centrised the rightwing of new zealand politics..
..he must have done it while you weren’t looking..
..eh..?
..(heh..!..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
November 15th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Paul Walker …. you simply forget that National and Act have much in common. It’s the means to the end rather than the end itself where I guess there will always be creative tension.
But Rodney does need a reality check after his performance last Sunday night. The election was over and he was still acting as though he was campaigning and to insult John Key to his face was dumb stupid.
I suspect you can only push Key so far and I don’t think he got the nickname of ‘The Smiling Assassin’ for nothing … as I think some time servers in his caucus may soon find out.
And yes. The coalition arrangment does give JK room to manoevre. Not such a bad thing because for every three voters that think ACT is gods gift to creation, 97 don’t.
Mao Tse Tung said “three steps forward and one step back and you are still moving forward”. That is the reality of MMP.
Compromise from National and compromise from ACT. I really hope both partners can work together because if they don’t there will be retribution at the ballot box.
November 15th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Unfortunately, Key is going left – more left than a centre right government should. He’s gone back on his word to cut public service jobs already. If he destroys the anti-socialist element of National over this first term, don’t come on here wailing about it when there is no choice but to vote left or further left. I won’t be sticking around to read a repeat of the wailings of the last year or so. Rodney was almost right in saying that Key’s more leftwing than Helen – he’s really a social liberal, doing deals with racists when he doesn’t have to so he can prove he isn’t racist. The Maori party is a race based party. They’re racists. Every few months they prove it publicly. They want a divided country.
The MSM are making a hell of hoopla about a party with just one more seat that ACT but a whole lot more influence than that one seat should give. Remember the wails of: “Rodney should remember he’s only on 3.5% blah blah blah…” It’s pretty clear the same condescension directed at Rodney for being right wing and white, is changed for praise and encouragement for the maori party because they’re brown and Left. This is standard social liberal apologetic attitude.
I think a big portion of “the right” are actually made of lefties that like to make money and they think that since they can make money, they must be right wing poltically. There’s no other reason for the strange about face. You can’t be a social liberal and be right wing – Katherine Rich tried and realised. So if you think there’s going to be a backlash at the polls if, in the end, the apologists can’t work with the racists then you might find the votes turn to ACT, rather than Labour Lite. If they don’t, it’s best the right packs up and leaves NZ because the people are terminally, mentally ill and only total economic collapse will set them straight.
November 15th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Phil, you haven’t got it. My point isn’t about politics, its about economics. What Key has done may make sense in terms of politics, its just that it could result in very bad economics.
Ross. I’m not sure now that Key and Act do have that much in common. Brash and Act yes, but under Key, what I’ve seen doesn’t lead me to believe he does have much in common with Act. Key’s aim may be to stay in in the centre, to takeover Labour’s territory and do little outside what Labour would have done anyway. That isn’t the road to the economic reform we need.
November 15th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
How’s the political wilderness Phil? ..eh,
still nice and chilly? ..eh .
So the poor Melons are the bridesmaids again…eh,
you Melons better watch it Phil, you are starting to look like spinsters…eh,
desperate and dateless … eh.
I think National are making a bold move by including the Maori Party into government, I hope it works out, it it doesn’t it could set race relations back for years. If it does work out many of the problems of the Maori could be history and perhaps we can be one people in a united country.
November 15th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
goodgod … please show me where Key said he would cut the public service. I suspect you won’t be able to. What Key and National have said is that they would cap the Public Service at its present level and look to achieve efficiencies.
What I suspect will happen is that Government departments will be put under a microscope and where there is indentified fat it will be cut out by either (a) natural attrition or (b) redeployed to fill vacancies as they occur.
Obivious candidates are the TEC and Families Commission. There are others.
I would like to see the Finance & Expenditure Cttee given that task undder the Chair oF Roger Douglas.
But don’t parrot newspaper headlines to me as statements of fact when they aren’t.
p.s. Whats the Party with one more seat than ACT??????????????
November 15th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
With regard to ‘the road to economic reform’ – I don’t recall Key saying he would ‘reform’ our economic policy to the fringe Austrian position that a few support.
The reality is that citizens of First World countries expect a certain level of government services. They expect the government to build and maintain infrastructure for a start.
It is simply not politically feasible (and it never will be) to reduce the level of services we have in any significant way. The NZ people will not stand for it. And as result, the whole thrust of the Austrian movement is rendered incoherent.
It is not grounded in any sort of economic reality and is therefore useless.
As an aside, a huge number of economists seem to find the time to blog – which indicates to me that they are part of academia and are not wealthy. Key is. Whose judgment do you prefer?
November 15th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Ruth: “As an aside, a huge number of economists seem to find the time to blog – which indicates to me that they are part of academia and are not wealthy. Key is. Whose judgment do you prefer?”
The one that the economic theory and evidence says is current.
November 15th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
“Whose judgment do you prefer?”
Anyone who recognises the real situation we’re facing, Ruth.
So far, there has been no acknowledgement from anyone apart from Cullen’s release of the Treasury document but that was done for political purposes so discount that. I have never and will never give Cullen the time of day, he was one of the worst Finance Ministers we’ve ever had due to the damage he did by omission, not commission. Not that the immediate history will agree with that conclusion but it will be made eventually.
As many including myself have been saying for some time, we desperately need a robust public debate on developing a strategy to deal with this crisis. Most NZer’s have no idea what’s happening globally and one can only hope Key will on his return from the APEC meeting announce the beginnings of such a process. Weldon and Skilling have already begun, those two know what’s happening.
It’s way past time to relegate politics to a secondary position relative to this critical issue. This nation is going to have huge unemployment – in the hundreds of thousands with no jobs available and this will last for years, believe it. Talk about corrections and cycles is completely pointless. Robust critical discussion of the available options is not only wise, it’s imperative, regardless of whether or not some of the people in the power structure recognise that.
November 15th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
So you want a secretly recorded personal conversation?
translation: “Don’t prove anything to me I’m not listening! la la la da da da la la la I can’t hear you!”
You know exactly what “achieve efficiencies” means. You’re probably one of the aforementioned lefties deluding themselves they’re on the right. No one on the right would be applauding Key’s moves so far and only the deluded think you get one nation by giving special treatment to one group based on race.
November 15th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
“only the deluded think you get one nation by giving special treatment to one group based on race”
I think though goodgod there is a welcome recognition that the policies of the past did not help the Maori people assimilate into the Western mainstream. I’m glad Maori themselves are finally recognising that they bring many of their problems upon themselves, however I’m also glad there’s increasingly widespread recognition that Maori do think and approach issues in a completely different way to that of Caucasians and for that matter Asians and Africans. For Maori, the model whereby they are given resources and given the freedom to determine themselves how to use them, appears to work. For Caucasians it would not be the best but for Maori it does indeed appear to be that way.
The chip on their shoulder is gradually being loosened although some such as Mair refuse to relinquish it perhaps because it gives such people a raison d’etre. However even when you look at the actions of the radicals of the 80’s you see a softening and perhaps we would have all been better off had we listened and thought more carefully about the rationale behind what they were saying rather than do what many of us including myself did at the time during the 80’s and 90’s, which was to write off their comments as mere disaffection with a system that seemed to be perfectly OK.
November 15th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
It may be premature to guess what the Key government will do to manage the recession.
Getting both the Maori Party and ACT to coordinate with National, does mean that any reforms or controversial economic moves has greater buyin. In effect, Key may be preparing the political ground for some careful economic manouvers.
Perosnally I don’t know, and the signs can be interpreted both as a Labour-lite or as a more sustained change in economic direction.
November 15th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
“Key may be preparing the political ground for some careful economic manouvers. ”
Let’s hope so….
November 15th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
It would seem to me that there are a number of commentators who are judging Key and National based on old prejudices.
Key has been Prime Minister Elect for one week.
He is not the PM yet. I look forward to robust and reasoned debate from some in the next few months, and the usual bile from the usual suspects, but lets wait until we see the results of the post election positioning.
November 15th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
“Key has been Prime Minister Elect for one week.”
Indeed slightlyrighty. However this global situation is most unusual in its potential and urgency. It concerns me that while Key has rapidly formed an MMP-style coalition as yet he has given no solace to the markets nor to business that he recognises the criticality of the situation.
Either:
a) I’m wrong, which means a lot of other NZ and overseas commentators are also wrong
b) He’s trying to display a calm demeanor amidst the coming storm, understandable and wise
c) He doesn’t agree with the analysis and forecasts, viewing this as a mere cyclical issue.
The 3rd alternative is the one he either has to dispel or endorse. At least then we know where we stand. That’s why I’ve been saying since his election last week he needs to clarify his position and he’s had 6 days already. The markets are more skittish than they’ve ever been and Key more than most understands uncertainty is the enemy of stability.
If his position is in the second alternative then that still could have been achieved by acknowledging the need for an action plan while reserving his options, which would have given the markets some certainty.
It’s a big job the young man has been thrust into and one can understand his hesitation as he’s still assimilating his advisor’s advice. The PM however has to rise above that and part of that image is being seen to be decisive. So far JK has not proven such on this particular front but he needs to be, very quickly.
November 15th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Look Mr Key’s motivations are pretty obvious and are smart but not particularly altruistic.
He and National strategists must be aware that at the very farthest extent of the anti-labour swing, they only have a majority of a few seats under MMP.
So taking the opportunity of throwing a few crumbs and offering a few baubles to the Maori party now is a good investment in a future when they might need Maori party support.
So it is an intelligent move but not exactly ushering in the Age of Aquarius.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:14 am
Quote from Ross Miller: Goff is going to do it hard over the next few months and watch this space as the debacle over a massive defence contract gone wrong is exposed.
Project Protector??? If so, who’s to blame – Burton and/or Goff?
Or something else?
November 16th, 2008 at 5:45 am
It’s really a shame that we haven’t had a few policy iPredict markets up during all this. I’d love to have see the comovement of a market in something like “Mapp’s 90 day bill passing” with the market in the Maori Party supporting National. That sort of thing could provide a bit of a barometer as to whether the grand coalition gives Key a way of avoiding making good policy moves or a way of getting broad buy-in for such proposals. Will have a chat with Matt….
November 16th, 2008 at 8:37 am
I see Don McGlashan has spat the dummy over TVNZ’s decision to play one of his tunes to celebrate National’s election win. He’s well, um, a Labour supporter, you see.
“Of course I am in no way criticising the process of democracy or New Zealanders’ right to throw out the best government we’ve had in years because we happen to be a bit bored, but you might as well know I’ve never voted National.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-election-2008/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501799&objectid=10543281
What an arrogant little man. He sounds just like Chris Trotter. (No, Don, that’s not a compliment.) And the comment from his daughter is just priceless.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:29 am
“I think a big portion of “the right” are actually made of lefties that like to make money and they think that since they can make money, they must be right wing poltically.”
Identifying them as right wing statists might be more accurate.
November 16th, 2008 at 9:40 am
I say let Don McGlashan have sex with the ugly crayfish. What wackos these lefty turd tossers are.
November 16th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Key sucking up to racists and using them as political leverage against free market advocates is about what I would expect. Just so fucking bright when we need real action on the economic front and to simultaneously slam the door on special interest groups who only ever want to get their hands on taxpayer money. Key is actually smarter than this, but collectively, National are fuckwits.
November 16th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
reddy is still pissed off..
..some things never ‘change’..
..tho’..he must be hurting..
..wot with the emasculation of his beloved right..
..the dreams have all turned to dust..
(and english was on agenda this morn..
..whoar..!..had everyone forgotten how feckin’ boring he is..?
..i really really tried..(these are important times/issues..after all..)
..but i kept slipping away..eyes glazing over..mind numbing./freezing..
..as the soporific words of the english washed over me..
..and sent me into a light coma..
(..and three more years of this..!…eh..?
whoar..!..
..english will bore us all into a brain-recession..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
November 16th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Its amazing what the Maori king can get away with under the radar cause no ones scrutinizing him.
One of his PR reps was invited to a pacific ccruise upon which he asked if he could invite family and extended family
No worries came the reply. A few more on board and no ones the wiser.
The media is simply not going to report on the king and he basically has a free reign most politicians can only envy.