Thanks to Helen, the way to entrench the Maori seats is to have Maori Party go with National

In an extraordinary and desperate flip-flop, One News reported tonight that Helen Clark said she now supports entrenching the Maori Seats, a policy the Maori Party has indicated may be a bottom line. Never mind she didn’t a few days ago – TVNZ amusingly showed her also saying that was not their policy in 2005, yet denying it was a flip-flop.

But what is really amusing is she has scored a massive own goal. How? Go back and read what Chapman Tripp said on entrenching the Maori Seats:

However, to add the Maori seats to the list of entrenched matters will require more than a majority vote in Parliament. When entrenching something new, the Standing Orders and our constitutional conventions come into play.

The Standing Orders state: “A proposal for entrenchment must itself be carried in a committee of the whole House by the majority that it would require for the amendment or repeal of the provision to be entrenched.” In other words, a proposal for entrenchment can only be passed by the super-majority it proposes – in this case, 75 per cent. …

On current polls, a 75 per cent vote in the next Parliament will require getting both National and Labour into the “ayes” lobby.

What this means for the Maori Party, even if it is in the position post-election to decide who gets to lead the next government, is it will have to somehow persuade both the suitor it is accepting and the suitor it is rejecting to support it.

Now think about how things play out now that Labour have said their policy is to support entrenchment and National has said its policy is not to.

If the Maori Party go with Labour, then they will not have a 75% majority. National will have no reason to change its policy and Labour/Maori Party will fail to entrench the seats. Labour can not deliver on entrenchment without National.

Now what happens if the Maori Party go with National, and as part of that they manage to negotiate that National support entrenchment in exchange for various concessions on other issues. Well they also will not have 75%, But here is the great thing – Helen has already announced that Labour’s policy is now to support entrenchment. Labour will have to vote to entrench the seats, even though they are not in Government, or risk a mighty backlash from Maoridom for having lied to them about supporting entrenchment.

In her desperation to get close to the Maori Party, she has massively blundered by giving away one of her major post-election negotiating items. She has actually given the Maori Party an increased incentive to go with National, as that is the only way to get the 75% needed to entrench the Maori seats.

Well done, Chief Political Strategist Clark.