The Auckland Seats

November 12th, 2008 at 1:34 pm by David Farrar

Starting at the top, the three northern seats of , North Shore and were solid blue. Their party votes went up 9%, 4% and 11% respectively.  In East Coast Bays almost three times as many people voted National as Labour. These seats now are counters to the South Auckland seats.

The personal majorities were 12,800, 13,200 and 8,500 respectively. Northcote was held by Labour up until 2005 and Jonathan Coleman this tme incraesed his majority by around 6,000.

Out west we saw the near impossible – National won the party vote in all three West Auckland seats. worked hard on to lift the party vote by 10% to 41%, with Labour dropping 12%. Te Atatu went from 32% to 42% and Waitakere from 33% to 42%. Listing the vote 10% in Westieville was great work.

’s win in Waitakere is all the more remarkable because of the new boundaries. They had her 6,000 votes behind in 2005 and she won by 900. Groser reduced Cunliffe to 3,500 from a paper majority of 12,000 – also one of the biggest swings! Finally Chris Carter dropped to 4,500 from 7,500.

In central Auckland we have Auckland Central. National lost the party vote by 12% in 2005 and won it by 5% this time. This seat has been held by Labour since 1919 (apart from once going further left to the Alliance), making Nikki Kaye’s 1,100 vote victory all the more remarkable.

Mt Roskill also just went to National on the party vote, and Goff’s majority went from 9,400 to 5,500 – still very safe. His leadership predecessor in Mt Albert won the party vote by 6%, and had a slight dent in the electorate majority from 11,400 to 8,700.

Epsom went from 58% to 63% for National on the party vote, with Labour falling to under 20%. Rodney Hide drives his majority from 2,000 to a staggering near 12,000. They liked his dancing. also remains solid blue with another 60:20 split on the party vote. saw his majority go from 10,300 to over 15,000.

was another big mover. The party vote went from a 13% deficit to 45 lead. And Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga scored an 1,800 majority from an close to 7,000 majority to Labour previously. Sam is one of the most well liked guys in the National Party, and had one of the biggest teams in recent memory on the hustings. He had between 10 and 25 people door knocking both days every weekend.

Out East we have Pakuranga which was no surprise. It is another close to 60:20 seat. Maurice is very popular locally and scored a 13,000 majority.

Botany. This brand new seat got the second highest party vote in Auckland for National – 62%. also got a 10,000 majority. ACT’s was in third place but got a respectable 4,500 votes.

Papakura. The party vote went 52% to 28% for National, and took a 6,800 paper majority and turned it into a 9,700 real one.

Finally we have the three M seats in South Auckland. Mangere, Manurewa and Manukau East. Mangere saw Labour’s party vote go from 73% to 61%. In Manurewa it was from 61% to 50% and Manukau East from 65% to 57%. But turnout was down also and in absolute terms, Labour went from 55,000 votes to 38,000 over the three seats.

Thankfully Labour’s Sio beat Taito Phillip Field by 11,300 to 4,700

Note the above comparisons are all to 2005 results adjusted to new boundaries. Also a more formal analysis will be done when we have final results.

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20 Responses to “The Auckland Seats”

  1. Right of way is Way of Right (1,125 comments) says:

    On the way to work this morning, saw Johnathan Coleman and a few of his suppoirters holding big THANK YOU signs and waving too all and sundry. Got a lot of horns sounding in support too. Good to see someone remember where his votes came from!

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  2. Adam (552 comments) says:

    David, in terms of swings would this be on par with the 1990 election? It sure seems that big.

    [DPF: Not quite as big but the 2005 – 2008 swing over two elections is probably the biggest ever – from 21% to 46%.

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  3. stayathomemum (140 comments) says:

    DPF your 11,400 figure for Helens 2005 majority differs substantially to Mondays Herald which has 14,749 – is this a typo or am I looking at the wrong numbers? (No – I’m not checking all your numbers!! I just remember taking pleasure at the fact her majority had a BIG dent in it!)

    [DPF: They are going off the old boundaries, I am adjusting for boundary changes]

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  4. canuckiwi01 (7 comments) says:

    hey where is Helensville? Did I just fall out of living in Auckland???

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  5. Ratbiter (1,265 comments) says:

    I wonder how much, if at all, Paula Bennett benefited from having her profile raised by her weekly appearances on the TV1 Breakfast show?

    (Not that that same exposure seems to have worked out so well for Darren Hughes in Otaki!)

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  6. TTTC (11 comments) says:

    DPF
    It’s Peseta, not Pesata.

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  7. wynkie (85 comments) says:

    Mt Albert is a real anomaly in Auckland now.

    Should Helen resign and takes a job overseas, then National could well win in the bi-election. National needs to stay on top of this electorate, and continue to build rapport with Mt Albert voters (including with the Pt Chev RSA), so they’re poised and ready for an election at short notice.

    Maybe Judith Tizard might decide to stand in Mt Albert – which would be great for National. Yet I doubt she is diligent enough to put in the effort required

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  8. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    I too agree that if and when Helen Clark goes Mt. Albert could be a real battleground seat. I think its likely still stronger for Labour but its a seat I think is tracking gradually blue and is a seat that National could win in a byelection.

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  9. dad4justice (7,406 comments) says:

    Those red spots make Dorkland look like a bad case of acne. sorry Helen, haha Judith!

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  10. deanknight (263 comments) says:

    Is anyone doing graphics like this for our election?

    http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/

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  11. sweetd (124 comments) says:

    I am doing my bit for team blue. I moved in to the Mt. Albert seat this year.

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  12. Steve (4,318 comments) says:

    Dad,
    Those red spots/dots are the receding cancer that has been arrested.

    canuckiwi01,
    hey where is Helensville? Did I just fall out of living in Auckland???
    Helensville is the expanding part of Dorkland. Glenfield is part of it.
    Glenfield was East Coast Bays and Albany in previouse times.
    Go John Key. Yeehaa!

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  13. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    So, Hulun doesnt seem to have the unanimous support in Mt Albert she once did.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/vote08/4757907a28477.html

    I note the comment that she has dropped the ball in recent years on local issues.

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  14. headstuckinlawbooks (21 comments) says:

    Helensville was included in the previous “Northland” post…

    Good on Nikki Kaye for winning Akl Central… never met her yet I was cheering for her loudly on Saturday night! First time I”ve ever been more than mildly interested in an electorate battle… I live in bluest-of-blue Tamaki (has been a National seat since Muldoon won it from Bob Tizard in 1960 :P) and we rarely if ever see our MP. Clem Simich was widely known as “Clem Who?” and as for Alan Peachey… well I saw him at the local shopping center before the 2005 election (first time I’d seen either of them in real life) and when I asked him what he’d do for our electorate if elected… he couldn’t tell me :P (I was 18 at the time… first time voter… didn’t feel particularly moved to vote for him but just like all the other lemmings we do it anyway for lack of a better option :P). The people in Glen Innes probabl wish they weren’t aligned to our electorate… its interesting to see the variation when you look at the break down of polling booths.

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  15. Nick Kearney (916 comments) says:

    I’d like to think I helped with Jonathan Coleman’s increased majority. As the ACT candidate for Northcote I supported Jonathan and because I was not campaigning for the electorate vote I was comfortable with telling people to vote for him, which I did. There is little downside to this strategy. My party vote percentage was 5.3% so not too bad all things considering.

    I just hope the National Party appreciates this cooperative strategy as it is not guaranteed in 2011.

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  16. wynkie (85 comments) says:

    I was talking to one of the trainers at the gym and he was on about how useless Tizard was. He said one of his clients told him they’d rung Judith Tizards office 8 times on a matter and she never ever replied. And apparently she’s in a state of shock about not being re-elected. What does she expect for god sake.

    Now I can understand Helen been busy on other matters, but Judith – please! Too busy swanning around wine and cheese parties having her photo take for the Ponsonby News.

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  17. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,786 comments) says:

    TV3 did a nice piece on Labour MP’s packing up their offices. They have to be out by the week of the week. What fun.

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  18. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    nice.

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  19. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,786 comments) says:

    Yep, all those ex-Labour Cabinet Ministers will be out of their offices by the end of the week.

    John Key can then measure up the curtains on the ninth floor. :D

    On another fun note, where does Heather Simpson move to? Is it the dole queue for her?

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  20. Tauhei Notts (1,509 comments) says:

    It appears to me that Otahuhu now has a National M.P.
    Any historians out there who can tell us when that last happened?

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