The Central North Island Seats

November 13th, 2008 at 12:15 am by David Farrar

Oh I do like that solid blue look. And in 2002 only a handful were blue.

is a new seat. The party vote is another 60:20 type solid seat. On the electorate vote narrowly beat Jordan Carter by 14,738 votes and another 2,700 votes behind Jordan.

Waikato is 58% to 22% on the party vote. And Lindsay Tisch drove his majority from 7,000 to almost 12,000.

Coromandel went from 45% to 31% up to 51% to 26%. And Sandra Goudie scored a 13,400 majority for the seat she won in 2005.

The two Hamilton seats are no longer marginal weathervanes. Hamilton East went from a 9% party vote lead for National to a 19% lead. And David Bennett turned a 5,300 majority into one of over 8.000. Hamilton West saw an 11% lead in the party vote for National after being 2% behind in 2005. And Tim Macindoe turned his 1,100 loss in 2005 to a 1,500 victory in 2008.

Bay of Plenty is another 60:20 seat on the party vote. and Tony Ryall got a massive 16,500 majority up from 11,000 in 2005.

In 2005 in Tauranga, National had a 15% lead in the party vote. In 2008 the lead was 32%. Bob Clarkson beat Winston Peters by 730 votes in 2005. This time Simon Bridges beat him by 10,700. Simon will be happy to be the Member of Tauranga for some time.

Rotorua saw National lift the party vote from 43% to 51%, and scored a majority of almost 5,000 over a sitting Minister.

saw a party vote victory of 15% and beat by almost 6,000 votes. She ran a good campaign and for a big enough majority to make it safe for National. Burton got 2300 more votes than Labour so even harder for any future Labour candidate.  I also heard a rumour that Louise held the first meeting of her 2011 campaign committee at 8.15 am on Sunday morning :-)

The had a 15% lead in the party vote (the graphic has it wrong) and on the electorate vote Anne Tolley turned a 2,500 majority into a 6,000 majority.

The growing seat of saw National go from a 1% lead in the party vote to a 12% lead. And drove his 3,300 victory over Russell Fairbrother in 2005 to a 8,400 margin. Remember this is a seat Labour held for all but three years from 1928 to 2005 and Tremain is building John Carter or Nick Smith type majorities as a brilliant local MP who owns his seat.

Over on the west coast, we have the huge Taranaki-King Country seat which is another of those lovely 60:20 seats.  And the 12,000 majority motors up to 14,500.

Finally we have New Plymouth. National was ahead on the party vote last time by 8% and this time it was 20%. And it was too much for who lost the seat by 300 votes. In 2005 he held it by almost 5,000 votes and in 2002 his majority was a staggering 15,000. New candidate Jonathan Young will be watching the special votes though.

Labour will struggle to form a Government again, while so many seats have them getting just 1 in 5 party votes. Every seat in this region had at least an 11% gap in the party vote, with many having a 40% gap.

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8 Responses to “The Central North Island Seats”

  1. skyblue (203 comments) says:

    I am colour blind, what is the colour of the seats for mid NI?:)

    I was there on Saturday night, my wife gave JK a kiss on the cheeks, she still has not shut up about that yet!!! More than what i got on the night:(.

    DPF, fuck your stagger was bad but you had a smile on your face after exiting the strategy room:) at 1am.

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  2. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    If National keeps working the provinces from North to South it gives them an edge they don’t have in the cities. Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin are still very red. Auckland went blue this time. But its these provinces from North to South that could truly cement dependable votes for National in the future. Labour needs to address the provinces because National has an edge now. National can rest a bit on the provinces and ensure work in the cities. I think regardless of what happens in the three years till 2011. National should look forward to holding all these in 2011.

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  3. OECD rank 22 kiwi (2,819 comments) says:

    Labour look well and truly screwed. A desirable outcome for New Zealand. :cool:

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  4. NX (603 comments) says:

    Oh I do like that solid blue look. And in 2002 only a handful were blue.

    Now, that’s what I call a right royal pasting.

    And the central NI is one of the most populated regions of the country with an urban/rural mix of all socio-economic backgrounds.

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  5. NX (603 comments) says:

    Labour look well and truly screwed

    No wonder no one bothered to challenge Goff for the leadership; no one wants the job!

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  6. expat (4,048 comments) says:

    David, nice drawn out baiting and salt rubbing exercise. I like it.

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  7. stu-tron (43 comments) says:

    The other significant factor in Ham East was that the 2005 margin of 5000 odd was decimated due to boundary changes. David probably gave up nearly 4000 of that 5000 majority through the outlying rural areas being cut from Hamilton East. It was the first time Ham East had been a truly urban seat, which just makes the 8000 odd margin that much more important.

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  8. GerryandthePM (328 comments) says:

    Taupo ……… I also heard a rumour that Louise held the first meeting of her 2011 campaign committee at 8.15 am on Sunday morning .

    Surely this is an in-house reference to going to Church?

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