The Electorate Battles
November 12th, 2008 at 8:58 am by David Farrar
Over today (and maybe beyond) I’m going to review the 70 electorate battles. Helping me in this will be the nice graphics above done by the NZ Herald.
Northland
On the party vote National was up around 6% and Labour down 5%. The majority for Carter of around 9,500 is unchanged despite Shane Jones being the candidate. A party vote of over 50% for National is quite exceptional for what is a relatively low income area. Of course some peopel going on the Te Tai Tokerau roll makes the comparison not so simple.
Whangarei
NZ First once almost won this seat, but Heatley has made it his own. The party vote for National hit 50% in a first – up 7% and Labour dropped 8%. Heatley’s 9,000 majority has expanded to 13,600 making it one of the safest in the country now.
Rodney
Not too many small handed voters here as Lockwood’s majority climbs from under 10,000 to 14,400. The party vote National goes from 52% to 59% and Labour falls from 28% to 21%.
Helensville
John lifted this party vote from 55% to 65%, and Labour fell from 28% to 18%. And his personal majority went from 12,500 to a stunning 18,500 – the largest in the country I think.
Overall the four seats north of Auckland averaged 56% party vote for National, making it one of the strongest regions in the country for them, if not the strongest.
Related posts:
- Jones, Carter & Cunliffe
- iPredict on electorate contests
- Electorate Tactical Voting
- Party and Electorate Votes
November 12th, 2008 at 9:20 am
yeah yeah yeah the election was close dammit!
Vote:November 12th, 2008 at 11:01 am
When did and who almost won Whangarei for NZ First?
Vote:November 12th, 2008 at 11:21 am
John Banks almost lost Whangarei to New Zealand First’s Brian Donnelly in 1996.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=2098063
Vote:November 12th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
If Nat/Act get tough on crime (TM), presumably there will soon be even more prison-building going on up there, and if that’s the case it’ll be interesting to see how blue Northland is next time around…
Vote:November 12th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
Yes ratbaiter but presumably less crime too, so look for deeper blue with a splash of yellow.
Vote:November 12th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
The electorate really punished Lockwood Smith for his ill considered comments.
Vote:His majority increased by about 30%. The voters must know he is really a masochist and this was the only way to punish him.
The electorate has really spoken and I hope John Key listens to the people who count – and could count.
November 12th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Northland should be a marginal seat. It isn’t because they have in John Carter a superb electorate MP who knows that a large m’ship is the ‘key’ to success. My understanding is that it is well over the 3.000 mark which is probably larger than the nationwide total of NZ First, UF and the Progressives combined.
Vote: