The Upper South Island Seats

November 13th, 2008 at 10:16 pm by David Farrar

The birthplace of Labour, West Coast-Tasman went to National on the party vote by 11%. In 2005 the had a 3% margin. Damien O’Connor had a 1,500 majority and lost to by 1,000 votes. Auchinvole (who once famously told Parliament you pronounce his name like it was Dock in Cole or a rude version that is easy to work out) wan a strong campaign with 160 hoardings and a large campaign team. O’Connor is first in on the Labour List, so if Michael Cullen retires he will be back as a List MP.

National finally won the party vote in . Labour won it by 6% in 2005 but National has a 5% lead in 2008. And no one was surprised that Nick retained his seat, although his majority did shrink from 9,500 to 7,900.

Kaikoura was marginal in 2002 and today the party vote was won by 23%, up from 9% in 2005. doubled his 4,700 mJority to 10,100.

did well to hold on in with 500 votes against the competent and hard working . National won the party vote by 15%, up from a 0.3% margin in 2005. Cosgrove’s 2005 majority on new boundaries was 5,000.

remains red with 45% party vote Labour to 36% for National. However that 9% gap is a lot less than 24% in 2005. Dalziel’s 11,000 majority halved to 5,500 – still very safe. However National now has a List MP in the seat and will have hopes for when Lianne retires.

Christchurch Central was a great battle. Labour won the party vote by 1.4% and held the seat by 900 votes only. ran a very strong campaign but seats ending in Central are very hard to win for National. In 2005 the party vote margin was 22% and the majority for Barnett was 7,800.

Ilam has National 53% to 27% on the party vote. also drives his majority from 5,500 to 10,800. This may finally stop Gerry from referring to his seat as marginal 🙂

saw Labour win the party vote by just 2%. In 2005 it was 12%. And scored a fairly safe 4,500 majority despite new boundaries.

Finally we have Port Hills. National won the party vote by 16%, yet Ruth Dyson held the seat by 3,100. In 2005 Labour won the party vote by 12% so there was a massive swing there, yet Dyson’s majority shrank from just 3,600 to 3,100.

10 Responses to “The Upper South Island Seats”

  1. Frank (320 comments) says:

    Time for change and restore Democracy

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  2. peterquixote (231 comments) says:

    good post farrar

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  3. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    Very good to see Nelson blue again. I think its an electorate, that will increasingly become Blue even when the election is tight. And will swing Labour only if its a situation like 2002.

    Talking about Christchurch Central since its the electorate I live in. Its rather funny. On one hand it has Merivale which has high property values. St. Albans which has parts literally called Merivale especially in real estate (where I live) while it also has low income areas in Linwood and the Labourites ie. Shirley. Long term I would suggest that its going Blue. Dependent on whether St Albans/Merivale continues to be part of the electorate. St. Albans has had a lot of developments with townhouses and the like meaning property prices rose in the last housing boom and will likely boom again whenever the next one is. This is slowly going into Shirley, Avonside, Papanui, Linwood and Richmond. Also in the city centre itself. Christchurch has been fortunate to have luxury apartments and not the studio types seen in Auckland. Basically its an electorate I feel will slowly become Bluer but still largely Labour for a while.

    As for the other Christchurch electorates. Waimakariri will continue to go blue. Ilam is naturally blue since its Ilam, Fendalton, Burnside and Avonhead. Port Hills should be very blue. Next time I’d like to see a stronger candidate there because Dyson really shouldn’t have the majority she has. Christchurch East I’m sad to say will remain strong for Labour. Though for years New Brighton was meant to be the property hotspot. Really it should be. but Christchurch can be strange in what areas are popular and what isn’t, but eventually overtime National should enjoy some steady votes from there. Wigram likewise may slowly turn blue. But overall, Christchurch is likely to remain pro-Labour.

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  4. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    Also props to Christchurch for overcoming Wellington and becoming New Zealand’s second largest city. Quite amazing really considering business is all in Auckland and Wellington is where the government resides.

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  5. emmess (1,857 comments) says:

    I must say I am glad National lost the electorate vote in Port Hills
    Why the hell did they select a Social Credit/Alliance retread – Heffernen?
    He would have been nothing but trouble

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  6. clintheine (1,537 comments) says:

    I agree, great to Nelson stay blue and to win the list vote as well. Nelson has always attracted the worst possible Labour candidates/MPs. John Blincoe and Phillip Wooleston (who you say?) were the wooliest types of MPs you could imagine. The types that inspire columns from Bob Jones. This time we got a token carpet bagger from out of town who simply didn’t look like she belonged in Nelson. The biggest profile person apart from Nick is Mike Ward, a local legend who would have continued his status if he kept out of politics!

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  7. Blue Devil (7 comments) says:

    Christchurch Central should have gone to Nicky Wagner especially since the Labour camp were divided and in dissaray with Burns. Much harder to win next time with a sitting Labour MP. Missed opportunity there and you can blame some of those trying to help Wagner. They could have done better with some decent help from H.Q. Also Waimakariri… should have gone National as Kate Wilkinson is an excellent MP. As a minister(?), she’ll have the edge over Cosgrove next time. Dalziel won’t be sweating any time soon in East – it’ll remain Labour till the next ice age. Wigram halved Anderton’s majority and came bloody close to Labour’s party vote. What’s the bet he leaves inside a year when Clark does? Can’t imagine that old fossil enjoying swanning about as a back-bench MP in a caucus of one. That’ll give another shot to take the electorate – real chance there as a sizeable chunk of voters have spent the MMP elections voting National and Anderton, next time they won’t have that option. Port Hills was a great party vote result – quite unexpected but proves just how unpopular Labour was. Can’t believe they still voted for Dyson though… she’s such a sour old trout!
    Overall, Christchurch should have done better but was handicapped by an abysmal campaign strategy from head office, crap billboards, and wasted opportunities.

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  8. Nichlemn (60 comments) says:

    The Port Hills numbers are wrong, according to the election results website ( National only won the party vote 37.8% – 36.7%. The leftwing bloc is clearly ahead though: Labour + Progressive + Greens = 52.9% of the party vote. Also, Dyson’s majority last time was actually 1,923. This is not unexpected: boundary changes turned the seat from marginal to a fairly safe Labour seat.

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  9. horisthebear (45 comments) says:

    gingercrush –

    the seats in chch that will become less blue are those which are completely urban and not growing in population and every boundary change have to take a bit off others and are surrounded by red bits that they have to take. these are port hills and ilam. It won’t affect Ilam but it will over time make port hills worse.
    The chch seats that will become more blue are those that have the big housing developments planned for the next 10 years for chch. These are Wigram and East. e.g. East is 1/3 rural – traditional parts like new brighton is and always will be labour it are the new suburbs in the north that are being built and will be filled with houses as chch keeps growing and with wigrams case it is the airbase conversion both will add another 5,000+ national leaning people to both while probably remove the same number of left votes from them over time as well – this is a ten year thing though. With wigram also need to add the progs and labour votes together to get a true picture. Waimak will become a safe blue seat in much faster time.

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  10. gingercrush (153 comments) says:

    Nice post horisthebear. You know I totally forgot about that Wigram development. It should be interesting. I hear what you’re saying and I think there is a lot of truth in it. But population growth in Christchurch will also happen inside suburbs. Look at Merivale/St. Albans/Fendalton. These suburbs once enjoyed huge estate houses with very large sections. Over time, many of those houses have been bulldozed and sections divided into smaller lots. That continues to happen and is also happening in other suburbs. Its what has to happen, because you can’t simply keep growing out. Yes, Christchurch is growing out but there is also the aspect of in-fill housing.

    I think the next 10 years will hold some interesting things in Christchurch. One or two suburbs within Christchurch. Either somewhere close to the city centre like Sydenham. Or perhaps New Brighton. Or interestingly, Avonside. Anyway, one of those areas and it could be anywhere in Christchurch is going to see major changes and prove to be a bit of a hotspot. Then any suburb next door to it will also prove popular. The question is where. But then again, Christchurch is a strange city in that suburbs one would think would be popular and have high house prices aren’t while other areas are surprising when it comes to their value.

    But great thinking and we’ll see what happens.

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