When do you start attributing things to the new Government
NewZblog tries very lamely to blame National for the high migration in October 2008, arguing it should have reduced because National was ahead in the polls.
Now I think one doesn’t even have to try and respond to the lame attempt to blame National for migration figures that are for the month before the election. But it does raise the issue, when should you start holding a new Government accountable? Is it the Nov 2008 figures? Dec 2008?
A tend to to think 9 – 12 months is the usual lead in time you look for, to expect a Government to be “accountable” for various statistics. Accountable doesn’t mean they have a hell of a lot of control over them, but means that the country is now operating under the new policy settings.
Very few people or companies change behaviour just because a Government changes. Employers don’t go out the day after the election and start advertising new jobs they were holding off on. Expats don’t suddenly pack up their homes and get the next flight home.
What they do respond to, is policy changes. And generally it takes nine or more months to pass a law, and you have to wait until the budget in May next year for changes in government spending and taxation – and those changes may be spread over the next year or so also.
Another key thing to look for is what was the trend up until the change of Government, and did the trend then change? For example In 1990 unemployment was skyrocketing andat the end of the year National came into power. Unemployment kept increasing for nine months, and then it turned about and declined for the next five years. I blame the increase from Dec 1990 to Sep 1991 on the mess inherited from the former Government.
Some stats will not turn around for years and years, if at all. If you accept part of the solution to outwards migration is wage levels, and you also accept that the solution to wage levels is increased productivity growth, well it is a very long-term project to increase productivity growth. So at first what you might look out for is not a reversal in the trend, but even a slowing.
The other thing to look for is not just measuring actual vs actual, but actual vs projected. For example National will have a bigger deficit in next year’s budget than Cullen will have this year. The correct comparison to look at will be the size of the deficit compared to the projected deficit from the DEFU next month.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Wait for the December figures and double them for a guide as to what would have been, if Clark had sneaked back in.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:48 am
The Socialists/Communists and their supporters will be blaming everything and anything the new government does just for the sake of it
Socilaists/Communists cant help themselves Note how they blamed everything on the Nats govt in the 1990s and even blamed themselves for the 1980s when they actually did good things they neither they or others reversed even thou they have ample opportunity to do so
Remember Clark/Cullen were Ministers in the 1980s Labour governemnt but still blamed things they signed up to and did as thou it was” dolly did it”
Just ignore the Lefties they are a spent force who are past their used by date. We have moved on now They are still stuck in the past century
November 27th, 2008 at 11:49 am
I think that a link to this article will end up being posted in the comments of an awful lot of articles at The Standard over the next few years.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Well the current benchmark for BLAME is about twenty years if the hysterical lefties are to be believed.
Frankly I really don’t care. Just get the damn job done and they’ll come back after we’ve done a lot of work to get things turned around – insert Rachael Hunter add.
In the meantime I know of one successful expat looking to come home if anyone bothers to respond to his contact DPF.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:14 pm
Furthermore, the people who left in October 2008 didn’t make the decision ta leave in October 2008. They woulda made the decision months beforehand (probably when it looked like Labour NZF and the Greens had the numbers!
)
November 27th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Let’s also not forget that NewZblog is inhabited by intellectual cripples with the collective IQ of a green potato.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Considering that DPF blames labour for a ‘decade of deficits’, FUTURE deficits that occur long long after labour lost.
meanwhile John key is telling people in London that NZ is in much better shape than most countries, of course that IS DUE to Cullens fiscal conservatism
November 27th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
You have to laugh at the double standards of the left, Klark and Kullen were still blaming the Nat’s are far back as 2005.
If Key is smart he can and should sheet all blame back to Labour for at least the next three years, hell it worked for Labour.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
It might be a little lame, but it’s hardly surprising – it was the tactic you (mis)applied for years.
There’s so many exogenous factors affecting migration, of course any specific government policy has only limited imact, however given that National made such a feature of reversing the trend, they’ll have to expect to be held solely accountable – as lame as that might be.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
but we were told by Helen that national werent ahead in the polls// they were just rogue polls! the trend had labour kicking ass..
so the months before thing doesnt really add up.
November 27th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Yes that is a harsh call.
I know a number of American liberals who waited for GWB to be returned before they decided to leave the USA for a few years, and similarly their plans about going home have been “well IF Obama wins then the USA might be an alright place to live again…”
November 27th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
It’s difficult to see the new government policies being properly implemented while Liabour stooges occupy so many key positions in the Public Service.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
“any specific government policy has only limited imact, however given that National made such a feature of reversing the trend, they’ll have to expect to be held solely accountable”
Reading this made me stupider, I can only imagine what happened to you as you wrote it.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Lower interest rates, cheaper petrol. Who’s responsible for these? Is it a coincidence that these have occured now that Hels and Micky have had thier nasty, spiteful, sorry arses kicked. Please arsehole with the Dutch name reply to my comment, I am in the mood to do battle with a lefty.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
The opposition will always blame the govt for failings, regardless of who is at fault, even the fates. The govt will always claim credit for success, regardless of who deserves credit. It is just the way of our adversarial system. You cannot ask the blame question without asking the credit question, too.
We only have to look at Nationals blame game campaign over the last 6 years, which finally began to bite as we all tired of Helen. We will now see Labour engage in precisely the same tactic as they try to discredit the Nats, whether they deserve it or not.
Should be fun to watch. Not.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Kimble, was it the use of verbs?
November 27th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
“9 – 12 months is the usual lead in time you look for, to expect a Government to be “accountable” for various statistics. Accountable doesn’t mean they have a hell of a lot of control over them, but means that the country is now operating under the new policy settings.”
It’s going to take more than 9 -12 months to turn around some of the failed policies of the noughties. Labour blamed anything negative on the “failed”polices on the 80s and 90s to the end of their third term.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
“NewZblog tries very lamely to blame National for the high migration in October 2008, arguing it should have reduced because National was ahead in the polls.”
On the other hand, don’t they also claim the reason National was elected was because they proposed no real changes? Can’t have it both ways.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Homepaddock, that’s simply ridiculous. Emmigration is far more likely a function of pull-factors than push. Skilled migration generally follows the wage advantages of the destination, perceived or real, not amendments to the Crimes Act and besides wages recently grew faster in NZ than they did in Australia. Get your facts right.
National’s pledged to encourage people home, their immigration (note the name, not emmigration or migration, but immigration) policy is mostly focused on increasing the net flow of migrants to NZ, not reducing the flow emmigration. Even the levers they state will entice kiwis home are hopeless overstated. National may benefit from some small number of returning NZers who’ve been pushed out of work in finance industries and the like but unless you think tradesmen and lower-skilled workers will get higher wages in Hamilton than they do in the mines of WA, then I think you’re facing significant disapointment (and more of NewZblog’s criticisms).
November 27th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
roger nome has long argued that the problems in NZ over the last few years and today are the result of the National govt in the 90’s. I’m sure roger nome with his mighty intellect won’t be so partisan to start blaming the National govt for anything until about 2016. Actually I expect a well balanced and intelligent individual like roger to start pointing at the Labour govt over the last 9 years – for him not to do so would simply show us all what a Muppet he really is.
November 27th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Beneficial changes may ocur much quicker than the left expect – ie, the mood in the country is more optimistic especially as the election result was decisive and the administration more genuinely inclusive. John Key is right that NZ is better placed in being small allows quicker adjustments and acceptance of otherwise unpaletable changes increases when the alternative is more of the same failed policies. As to time lags this varies, somethings like re prioritising police resources away from revenue collection,to crime prevention and enforcement can be seen more quickly than resource management act changes which only affect future projects which may be 6 or more months away and longer to fruition. A really instantly effective measure would be the automatic resignation and re application for jobs occupied by those installed by Labour in the last year and the prosection of or inquiry into perceived corruption of the HBDHB matter.
November 27th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Immigration and emigration ebb and flow more according to our position, and other countries’ positions in the business cycle, rather than the party in power. Also – I saw some figures recently showing that the % of population emigrating during a period in the 1990s was higher than it was ever under Labour. Not that this means anything – we were at a low point in the business cycle then (though National’s right-wing reforms did deepen the recession).
David Farrar knows all these things of course, but he just can’t help but try and make something of it – especially when the National Party research unit is on the job with him.
[DPF: I know it is hard but try not to lie. I've never received a single piece of info from the Research Unit on immigration or migration, or ever discussed it with them. The fact is I have been tracking migration stats since the mid 90s]
November 27th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I agree with Baxter
Lets make clean the public service starting with environment, teaching and police.
“baxter
It’s difficult to see the new government policies being properly implemented while Liabour stooges occupy so many key positions in the Public Service”.
November 27th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
What more could you expect from a blog with an author by the name of hcjs (Helen Clark/James Sleep)?
November 27th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Perhaps it was pinko’s fleeing to Scandinavia before inevitable defeat – which should of course be encouraged
November 27th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
agree with those calling for a celan out in the civil service
In fact we need legislation as in other countries where the civil servants tender their resignations to the incoming government
this is not punative It simply allows the new administration to ensure their policy prograame will be followed
let face it Clark/Cullen et al turned the service into a political machine so thats how it is.
the Sir Humphries will be busy plotting the downfall of the softer targets and alas I can think of 5 or 6 they will be lining up to destroy.
on the matter of NZs recovery We do have the opportunity if JK BE etc do the right and i do mean the right things.
Slash taxes slash government waste and watch the economy soar as confidence comes back
Its all in the top 2 inches as the actress said to the Bishop
November 27th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
blocked?
November 27th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Frog said
” as we all tired of Helen ”
No really, she did, she said “as we all tired of Helen “, it’s there, up higher on the thread!!
I must go look at what was on FrogBlog as the counting of ballots neared! I’m sure she was viewed as the best thing prior to and since sliced bread!
November 27th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Don’t worry dave strings, the utopian rock snot greenie munchers dine on moldy bread and didymo sandwiches. No wonder Frogblog smells like a fetid swamp.
November 27th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Once again Dad goes to the crux of the matter straight away: (in true kindergarten fashion)
“Who cares what Frog says – everyone knows that greenies have GOT SMELLY BUMS! NYAH NYAH, NYAH-NYAH NYAH!!!!”
November 27th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
(in true kindergarten fashion)
Get it right ratbit, as I just kicked sand in your horrible face you twisted lemon!
November 27th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
So why are we supposed to care what some bus-depot deadbeat blogger thinks about immigation/migration?
Must be a slow news day
November 27th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
And the next lot numbers may be even worse after the banks demand a 20% deposit here and in oz the government will help out to the tune of $21,000 towards the deposit to build a new home. The turnaround will take decades not days as the left seem to think.
November 27th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
DPF
I have another answer to the question of when do you attribute things to the new govt, once again follow the lead that the corrupt and morally bankrupt socialists used.
All good things are a direct result of current govt.
All bad things are a direct result of the previous govt.
It’s simple really, take you head off and replace it with a cabage….
November 27th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Sorry about this, i’m new to this site, but can someone with computer expertise please crash the Standard’s server if possible? If i ever have to listen to Clinton Smith’s arrogant and self-important rants again I swear I might have to go down to the labour party headquarters and pop a few into their whole internet system.
You guys are bloody legends. Keep up the good work.
November 27th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Burt:
I think you missed the memo, Burt. The “corrupt and morally bankrupt socialists” apply different rules to those (like you) who ask perfectly reasonable questions.
Edit: Hamish S – you’ll see from the link I’ve posted that The Standard is busy converting itself into an echo blog chamber; as Burt recently discovered, there is no room for rational discussion there.
November 27th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
“If i ever have to listen to Clinton Smith’s arrogant and self-important rants again…”
I’ve never heard one, simply because I don’t waste my time going over to the “Standard” in the first place. Problem solved.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
“If i ever have to listen to Clinton Smith’s arrogant and self-important rants again… ”
I’m getting a laugh from going to that blog and reading the crap the sad fecker is trying to spin on JK.
It’s very sad but worth a look if you enjoy watching a lefty in pain.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Nomestradamus
The pricks applied the standard socialist method to that thread as well. The deleted some comments I made about PPP’s in health. I think when I suggested that removing the state provider monopoly in public health will allow more DR’s to earn internationally competitive salaries in NZ and therefore less will leave the country as soon as they are trained – I hit a raw nerve.
Imagine how horrible it must have been for the useless dim-bulbs to be told that we should do what works to get the best outcomes rather than prescribe the method of service delivery according to an ideology. Steve P. is shaping up to be a class-A Muppet. It’s great to watch him twist himself in knots when he posts a random rant without thinking it through.
November 27th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Blaming others was something the 5th Liarbore govt made into an art form as others have commented on above. Their first two terms and much of the third were full of obsessive lies designed specifically for one thing: deflect blame from themselves, even when it palpably wasn’t true.
Because they were so incompetent at everything they had to blame the previous govts for a hell of a lot.
One measure of this govt will be in the degree they desist from engaging in such execrable bahaviour. The temptation for the Nats will be much much greater than it ever was for Liarbore, given the state those pricks left the country in when they left office. AGAIN!!!!
November 27th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
“you also accept that the solution to wage levels is increased productivity growth, well it is a very long-term project to increase productivity growth.”
Not when productivity has been decoupled from wages.
The solution to higher wage levels is higher wages. Productivity growth increased significantly in the 1990s, but wages stagnated, as the minimum wage was held at $7 for most of the decade (yes, $7 per hour – how were we supposed to catch up to $16 Australia with that minimum wage?), Don Brash kept hiking interest rates to stop ‘wage inflation’ whenever we got to 6% unemployment (that was supposedly the floor, beneath which a stable economy was impossible), and effective bargaining and work rights were destroyed by the Employment Contracts Act.
Productivity increased, but these gains were not passed on to workers.
Under Labour the minimum wage was increased, wages increased in real terms, and the share of the economy in wages increased substantially.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Mr Darroch, why don’t you start your own business. Then you can pay workers the wages you think they’re due.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
The pattern from the 90’s looks ready to be repeated. Labour get tossed out of office after years of spending like a drunken sailor. National get elected at a time when the economy is turning to shit. A decade from now the lefties will be crowing about how good it was under Labour (heading fast toward a brick wall) and how bad it was under National (crashing into a brick wall).
The voters will continue to think that politics is all about some simple left vs right divide assisted by [two ticks Labour]|[two ticks National] election campaigns.
Round we go again.
November 27th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Burt:
The election was all about trust.
Labour promised to release its special budget in December. They should still do so. The only difference now, of course, is that they’re in opposition – but voters are entitled to compare Labour’s special budget against National’s tax cuts package (also due next month) – which Labour will no doubt oppose. That way voters can make up their own minds who they trust more: Labour’s vacuous “trust us” rhetoric, or National’s specific policy measure.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Spot on, Nomestradamus. The new Government should demand repeatedly that Labour produce its promised December mini-budget for the electorate to make its own judgment.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:39 pm
The election was about trust – fire the spin puppet that thought that was a good approach. Reid nails it when he says “Blaming others was something the 5th Liarbore govt made into an art form”. The Labour govt will continue this theme with the current govt, all bad things that happen from here on in will be National’s fault. National’s fault from the 90’s or National’s fault from this term. It’s ridiculous their supporters agree with them but it’s true – they are really that partisan and stupid.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Plenty of sour grapes from the Left still. It’s good of them to provide the free entertainment.
November 27th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Point well made George, NZ wages are notorioiusly sticky… salary and wages earners have not benefited proportionately to productivity increases compared with shareholders.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
New Zealand wages will always be sticky if govt’s campaign on policies of envy and have very aggressive tax thresholds. NZ’s “proud” heritage of “Nobody earns too much and nobody earns too little” (complete socialist clap trap that should have been left with the period it sprang from) has a lot to answer for here.
Celebrating success, congratulating people who make a lot of money and aspire. If we all sit around saying “look at the rich prick – must have ripped someone off” then increasing wages fights a battle with company profits and societies values.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
It’s all about CREATING wealth, not REDISTRIBUTING it.
The stupid loser Left don’t understand that. Then again they don’t really understand much at all.
November 27th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
OECD rank 22 kiwi
The bunnies still believe that if we all earn a modest living we will all be happy. Wharrrrrp… thanks for playing – Human nature don’t work that way – even sheep have leaders and pecking orders, what complete muppets thought you could train it out of people.
November 28th, 2008 at 2:42 am
I blame the Labour Party for all their talking of creating a wonderful booming economy under Cullens so called fiscal prudence and yet NOBODY got to see the benefits or enjoy the wealth that came from it.
Labour had the 2nd biggest surplus in the OECD (I think it was in the OECD) and they spent it all. Remind me when we are 10 years up the track and our growth is still 2% because of the lack of ability from people like Cullen to let us have our own money during the good times.
November 28th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Any Political Party in charge of the Countries government is part of the corrupt regime that has occupied the Halls of Power since the Muldoon years. They are all accountable.
November 28th, 2008 at 8:50 am
Well for me and since 8 November the sun has appeared on more days than not, the rain is sweeter, my leg doesn’t hurt so much, my golf handicap has come down and I won a Xmas ham in a free raffle …. all per courtesy of the John Key led Government.
November 28th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Quick question for the hysteria driven left, if Key is responsible for people leaving NZ in October does that mean Obama is responsible for Bombay?
Not forget the league world cup Ross.
November 28th, 2008 at 9:39 am
“When do you start attributing things to the new government” – well some things straight away….. like the absence of Helen/Michael/Winnie et al, scrapping in public, making bitter comments for the media and telling us how to live our lives. AND the general level of optimism that change brings as we anticipate new things, AND what appears to be a commonsense approach to getting the job done – THANK YOU John Key and the NAtional government.
Other things – well we will just have to wait and see, some things they will be accountable for sooner than others. AND if they can move on from the juvenile approach of “any good thing is our credit, and any bad thing is the previous admins fault” then that too will be a VERY Good thing and I have to say, the signs are there that they are moving on from that approach and giving credit where credit is due etc.
November 28th, 2008 at 11:26 am
It’s a tricky question you ask DPF. Some actions by Government can be immediate, and have immediate effects, like floating the dollar, or similarly large changes in monetary policy. Also, any announcement of a major plan in any detail will tend to have immediate effects – like the announcement of LLU halving the stock price of Telecom, despite the actual action happening much, much later. But you’re talking in a very general economic sense, and on that score, of course the new Government will get a very long honeymoon, particularly as the turmoil is driven by international factors. But certainly the Government can do things today that will make or lose colossal amounts of money for NZ, and the market may price that very quickly.
November 28th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
P. J. O’Rourke is apparently writing an article “Is It Too Soon to Start Talking About the Failed Obama Presidency Just Because He Isn’t President Yet?”
November 30th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
I see this thread got Kwiblog as blog of the week in HOS.
Blogging is a great form of communicating to the world, but when you have insight to details and on top of that know how to write, you just have to have a recipe for succes.
Being an extremely well known public figure and successful helps a hundred fold as well!
November 30th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
““Is It Too Soon to Start Talking About the Failed Obama Presidency ”
I think it is. I in fact I think it will be more successful than the Bush presidency.
Bush was a moron, Nancy Polosi said so herself (conservatively) as speaker of the house and that is a very rare statement for a speaker to make.
I’m not saying Obama will dazzle the world or even America, but he will leave a good taste to savour in the mouths of US citizens instead of leaving a whole nation poorer off in a multitude of ways as did Bush, Rove, Cheney etc, etc, etc.
I just wish someone could tell me one area America has benefitted under the last administration. I have yet to hear it from an American. The ones I meet (from very unusual locations) were all fleeing America.